
Theory about AI draft selections
FHM 7 brought in a new mock draft feature. I love the idea of this in theory. It gives a larger sense of immersion in the draft experience. The idea of a mock draft giving teams a rough idea of where players are going to fall, within a general margin of error of course (we have seen plenty of draft day falls and gains before irl) is brilliant in theory. However, i have seen an issue in execution's. I don't know if this happens with anyone else, or if the AI in my game is just acting funky, so this is very much anecdotal evidence i am bringing here, but something is up. It seems like the AI does not consider the mock draft at all when it comes to making selections, rather just going by star potential rating. This is obviously logical in theory, select the player with the most potential with your high draft picks. my issue is that this completely eliminates any chances of hidden gems in the draft class. Case and point, Detroit has the third overall pick in my game. The player rated 3rd on the mock draft is a player named Paul Heber. He is a player with a high floor but low ceiling, but the game puts his star ability rating at the highest of anyone in the draft, 1.5 stars. Who does Detroit select 3rd? They end up going with a player named Brian Card. Now, this makes sense if you dont look at the mock draft. The guy has a star potential of 4 stars, which is great. he can be a very good player in the league. The issue is that he was ranked 123 in the mock draft. The potential fate of a player is not known on draft day. No GM in their right mind would select a player projected to go in the mid rounds with the 3rd overall pick, regardless of if that player becomes a star, because no one would have known that at the time. There is reaching for straws, and then there is reaching for thin air. This isnt the only example in the draft i just completed. Numerous players projected to go later on in the draft were selected with high value picks. This makes me think that the AI prioritizes potential over the mock draft WAY too much. There are obviously some off the board picks. Barrett Hayton in 2018 is an exact example. The issue there is Hayton was projected to go around the middle of round one when he was selected 5th. Card, in my game, was projected to go in the 4th but was selected with a lottery pick. As of now, I find the mock draft completely superfluous to the game because of the AI behavior. If changes were made to the AI drafting logic, it would be a complete benefit to the game. Not only would the game feel more realistic and give the mock draft meaning, but it would make hidden gems more prevalent. These are just random thoughts from a really tired guy who is burnt out from university mid terms, and this very well may not be an issue for other games, but I still find it peculiar to say the least. Thanks for reading,
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