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JAF373 · 04-26-2021, 10:39 PM

Team Record: 51-83

We're in a heated 4-team race for the #1 pick in 2022!

Some updated stats as we head down the stretch...

Can't blame Wilson Contreras for this miserable season. He's second among all catchers in WAR (Realmuto) and 11th in MLB in ISO. His contract extension is on a very short list of bright spots in 2021.

Austin Romine is standard, replacement-level fodder as a modern backup catcher, but he's not worth $1.5M. Hopefully Payton Henry can win the job out of camp next season. Otherwise, we may get stuck with Romine or a comparable veteran.

-The offensive "bar" for third basemen grows higher each year and Kris Bryant ranks outside of the top 15 in OPS+ among full-time 3B. The .236 ISO is adequate for the position, but a .334 OBP doesn't justify his likely asking price on the open market. Even if he's willing to talk to us after the season, I'm just not sure he's really worth the money (especially given the injury history) as we prioritize spending up for one of the big ticket shortstops.

-Anthony Rizzo's .331 wOBA is his lowest in a full season since 2013, but I'm optimistic that he'll (mostly) bounce back next season in what will likely be a far more functional lineup. The walk and strikeout rates are in line with recent seasons and, with the distraction of the contract situation behind him, I'd expect a better performance in 2022.

-It's been an interesting year for Nico Hoerner, who looked overwhelmed in May after opening the season at the alternate site. After a month-long reset in Iowa, he posted a combined .355 wOBA in June and July while playing shortstop full-time for us out of necessity. We'll be heavily-involved with the loaded SS class this off-season and he may be able to shift back to 2B next season.

-Totally lost season for David Bote. After two "find yourself" months in Iowa, I brought him back to Chicago for the entirety of August and gave him a full complement of at-bats (94). And yet, again...nothing (.576 OPS, 33% K rate). He has a minor league option remaining next season if we need to stash him at Iowa again. Maybe the most disappointing the development of our entire 2021 season.

-Dealing with Elvis Andrus' ineptitude was the price to pay for a strong return in the Javy Baez deal. Fortunately, we've only had to give him 59 at-bats in his 2.5 months with the team. He's completely done as a hitter (30 overall rating) and isn't even useful defensively anymore.

-So far, so good for Luken Baker, who came to the North Side in the Miguel Amaya deal. After 82 productive ABs at Iowa, I added him to the 40-man and a few days later to the big league roster in advance of a 6-game swing through the AL. There's an obvious ceiling here because of the defensive limitations, but that ceiling - if everything clicks - could be a right-handed hitting Nate Lowe. With Rizzo sticking around for awhile, his future with the club might be contingent upon whether MLB adopts the universal DH in 2022. Otherwise, he's a useful trade target for an American League team.

I don't have enough superlatives for Luis Barrera, who ranks tenth among all rookie hitters in WAR despite not debuting until late June following the Baez trade. He was NL Rookie of the Month in July while hitting .402, including a 13-game hitting streak, nine of which were multi-hit games. While most young left-handed hitters struggle with southpaw pitching, he's been significantly better versus lefties (.965 OPS LHP; .805 RHP). He's dynamic at the top of the order and is striking out just 18.2% of the time. His aggression on the basepaths is sorely needed on our stationary roster, but he needs to improve his efficiency (7/13 on SB attempts). After a few years of searching for a lead-off hitter, the Cubs appear to have found "the guy," and he's become an immediate fan favorite with his electric style of play.

Mitch Haniger has underwhelmed since arriving from Seattle in early July. I didn't expect much in the on-base department, but the power disappeared after he left the Mariners (.203 ISO to .114 ISO). He seemed like a lock for next year's roster, but it's a closer call now, especially if he demands $5M+ entering his final arb year.

Alfonso Rivas is our 16th-ranked prospect and offers one of the most unique profiles in the system as a high-OBP/low power 1B/LF. Our scouts label him a current 40/future 45 with 65 discipline and a potential 60 hit tool. He was second in Double A East in on-base percentage prior to a mid-August big league promotion (.419), but the complete lack of power at 1B/LF makes him a dicey long-term fit. There's very little recent precedent for this type of player, but I'm giving him an extended two-month look to finish out this season.

By the way, how often do you see this spray chart from a left-handed hitter?

04-26-2021, 10:39 PM	#11
JAF373 Minors (Triple A) Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 256	September 1 Update Team Record: 51-83 We're in a heated 4-team race for the #1 pick in 2022! Some updated stats as we head down the stretch... Can't blame Wilson Contreras for this miserable season. He's second among all catchers in WAR (Realmuto) and 11th in MLB in ISO. His contract extension is on a very short list of bright spots in 2021. Austin Romine is standard, replacement-level fodder as a modern backup catcher, but he's not worth $1.5M. Hopefully Payton Henry can win the job out of camp next season. Otherwise, we may get stuck with Romine or a comparable veteran. -The offensive "bar" for third basemen grows higher each year and Kris Bryant ranks outside of the top 15 in OPS+ among full-time 3B. The .236 ISO is adequate for the position, but a .334 OBP doesn't justify his likely asking price on the open market. Even if he's willing to talk to us after the season, I'm just not sure he's really worth the money (especially given the injury history) as we prioritize spending up for one of the big ticket shortstops. -Anthony Rizzo's .331 wOBA is his lowest in a full season since 2013, but I'm optimistic that he'll (mostly) bounce back next season in what will likely be a far more functional lineup. The walk and strikeout rates are in line with recent seasons and, with the distraction of the contract situation behind him, I'd expect a better performance in 2022. -It's been an interesting year for Nico Hoerner, who looked overwhelmed in May after opening the season at the alternate site. After a month-long reset in Iowa, he posted a combined .355 wOBA in June and July while playing shortstop full-time for us out of necessity. We'll be heavily-involved with the loaded SS class this off-season and he may be able to shift back to 2B next season. -Totally lost season for David Bote. After two "find yourself" months in Iowa, I brought him back to Chicago for the entirety of August and gave him a full complement of at-bats (94). And yet, again...nothing (.576 OPS, 33% K rate). He has a minor league option remaining next season if we need to stash him at Iowa again. Maybe the most disappointing the development of our entire 2021 season. -Dealing with Elvis Andrus' ineptitude was the price to pay for a strong return in the Javy Baez deal. Fortunately, we've only had to give him 59 at-bats in his 2.5 months with the team. He's completely done as a hitter (30 overall rating) and isn't even useful defensively anymore. -So far, so good for Luken Baker, who came to the North Side in the Miguel Amaya deal. After 82 productive ABs at Iowa, I added him to the 40-man and a few days later to the big league roster in advance of a 6-game swing through the AL. There's an obvious ceiling here because of the defensive limitations, but that ceiling - if everything clicks - could be a right-handed hitting Nate Lowe. With Rizzo sticking around for awhile, his future with the club might be contingent upon whether MLB adopts the universal DH in 2022. Otherwise, he's a useful trade target for an American League team. I don't have enough superlatives for Luis Barrera, who ranks tenth among all rookie hitters in WAR despite not debuting until late June following the Baez trade. He was NL Rookie of the Month in July while hitting .402, including a 13-game hitting streak, nine of which were multi-hit games. While most young left-handed hitters struggle with southpaw pitching, he's been significantly better versus lefties (.965 OPS LHP; .805 RHP). He's dynamic at the top of the order and is striking out just 18.2% of the time. His aggression on the basepaths is sorely needed on our stationary roster, but he needs to improve his efficiency (7/13 on SB attempts). After a few years of searching for a lead-off hitter, the Cubs appear to have found "the guy," and he's become an immediate fan favorite with his electric style of play. Mitch Haniger has underwhelmed since arriving from Seattle in early July. I didn't expect much in the on-base department, but the power disappeared after he left the Mariners (.203 ISO to .114 ISO). He seemed like a lock for next year's roster, but it's a closer call now, especially if he demands $5M+ entering his final arb year. Alfonso Rivas is our 16th-ranked prospect and offers one of the most unique profiles in the system as a high-OBP/low power 1B/LF. Our scouts label him a current 40/future 45 with 65 discipline and a potential 60 hit tool. He was second in Double A East in on-base percentage prior to a mid-August big league promotion (.419), but the complete lack of power at 1B/LF makes him a dicey long-term fit. There's very little recent precedent for this type of player, but I'm giving him an extended two-month look to finish out this season. By the way, how often do you see this spray chart from a left-handed hitter? Last edited by JAF373; 04-26-2021 at 10:43 PM.