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JAF373 · 04-30-2021, 01:18 AM

March 3, 2022
Spring Training Day 1

40-Man Roster: 39/40

Catchers

-Barring injury, Casali will open as the back-up and Henry will report to Iowa for his first full AAA season. He's ready defensively, but the bat needs more time.

First Base

-Rizzo needs no introduction. Ford will open the season as the DH against RHP and could draw a sporadic start at 1B when Rizzo needs a breather. Baker will start in Iowa but would be up immediately with an injury to either of the starters.

Second Base

-Polanco is the starter and will ideally play just about an everyday role. We need him to regain some of his prior on-base ability with .320 a realistic target. Bote is only the roster because of his immovable long-term contract, but with a minor league option remaining, we could park him in Iowa again if he turns in a repeat performance from '21. Andrus remains an impediment to optimal roster construction, but we're deep enough on the infield that he won't get more than a rare start.

Third Base

-Duffy is on the bubble to open in the majors, but part of my rationale in bringing him back this season was his two remaining minor league options. Assuming we keep Bote and all five outfielders, Duffy would likely be squeezed out (at least to start the season). Santana will repeat AAA after posting a .449 SLG (18 HR) but a mind-boggling 102:9 K/BB rate. This is a carbon copy of the old Juan Francisco profile. Morel predictably struggled in an aggressive AA assignment last year. He'll get another shot this year and won't turn 23 until July, but because the prior regime added him to the 40-man roster so prematurely, he'll burn his second option this season and will have just one remaining heading into next year when he's unlikely to be ready for the bigs. Given the option predicament, he's a prime trade candidate.

Shortstop

-We desperately need a breakout year from Nico Hoerner, who was maddeningly mercurial last season but made some adjustments in September that offered a potential harbinger of promising things to come. The offensive bar for middle infielders remains low, so an OPS+ around 100 would be sufficient given his above-average glove and contact rates. Amaya has an advanced skillset at the plate and should be decent enough with the glove. He's the most recent addition to the 40-man as it seems inevitable that he'll be up at some point this season.

Outfielders

-Almost no roster uncertainty here as Rivas is damn close to a lock. His 137 OPS+ in 265 MLB plate appearances in August and September was a stunning development. Even the most optimistic Rivas advocate could not have predicted a .285/.380/.503 line. Barrera was arguably the best rookie in the NL last year and reprise his lead-off role against both LHP and RHP. I'm not sold that he'll hit .318 again, but the bat-to-ball skills are so advanced that he's unlikely to fall into prolonged slumps. We brought Duvall in to balance the lineup against LHP. He'll primarily DH but could draw an occasional start in one of the corners. Haniger needs to regain some of his prior plate discipline, but he'll hopefully be motivated by his impending free agency. Heyward remains among the five worst contracts in baseball and I fully expect another 65 OPS+ season.

Starting Pitchers

-Four of the five are set here with Paxton, Manaea, Hendricks, and Hernandez. Seabold and Schmidt are both candidates for the fifth spot, but we may end up piecing together bullpen games to start the season. As Spring Training begins, Seabold is a bit ahead of Schmidt. Steele put together an under-the-radar season at AAA (3.2 WAR, 9.4K/9), but his pedigree is well behind Seabold and Clarke. The issue is that he's out of options and might not get through waivers. Marquez is the second-best pitcher in the system and top 70-ish overall, but he's increasingly looking destined for the bullpen. With 45 stamina and 40 control, I'm skeptical that he'll ever be able to work his way through big league lineups. He'll end up with some sort of role later this season, and long term, he could be an answer as a flame-throwing closer. For now, he'll anchor the rotation at Iowa after finishing third in the AA South Cy Young voting.

Relief Pitchers

-Knebel is the big-ticket acquisition at the back end of the bullpen and needs to repeat 2021's clean bill of health. Floro, Pena, Suter, and Damon Jones are the other new arrivals with Jones required to stay on the roster for a minimum of 90 days as a Rule 5 pick. Pena still has an option remaining despite his "advanced" age (31) and, like McHugh, is a versatile piece who could open or follow. Romano struggled as a high-leverage guy last year but should be much more comfortable working in middle relief this season. He's due for substantial positive regression (3.85 FIP, 5.70 ERA) after being victimized by a .380 BABIP and surreal strand rate (63.4%). We ended up bringing Chafin back, but he looks like a drastically-depleted pitcher after ending last season as a 50/55. With Jones and Suter around, we hopefully don't need to lean on him to handle lefties. Wick and Maples look like DFA candidates as out-of-options 40s bumped way down the pecking order with the arrival of the off-season acquisitions. Maples struck out 11.7 K/9 and a decent 4.43 FIP. We DFA'ed fellow RHP Jason Adam last week to open up a spot on the 40-man. Manuel Rodriguez was the AA South Reliever of the Year last season and wiped out hitters with a 0.96 ERA (2.29 FIP) and 50 strikeouts in 37 innings. The walks will likely remain a problem (4.8 BB/9), but he's in line to jump into the bigs as soon as one of the bullpen guys goes down.

2022 Out of Options
SP Justin Steele
RP Dillon Maples
RP Rowan Wick

04-30-2021, 01:18 AM	#18
JAF373 Minors (Triple A) Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 256	2022 40-Man Roster Preview March 3, 2022 Spring Training Day 1 40-Man Roster: 39/40 Catchers -Barring injury, Casali will open as the back-up and Henry will report to Iowa for his first full AAA season. He's ready defensively, but the bat needs more time. First Base -Rizzo needs no introduction. Ford will open the season as the DH against RHP and could draw a sporadic start at 1B when Rizzo needs a breather. Baker will start in Iowa but would be up immediately with an injury to either of the starters. Second Base -Polanco is the starter and will ideally play just about an everyday role. We need him to regain some of his prior on-base ability with .320 a realistic target. Bote is only the roster because of his immovable long-term contract, but with a minor league option remaining, we could park him in Iowa again if he turns in a repeat performance from '21. Andrus remains an impediment to optimal roster construction, but we're deep enough on the infield that he won't get more than a rare start. Third Base -Duffy is on the bubble to open in the majors, but part of my rationale in bringing him back this season was his two remaining minor league options. Assuming we keep Bote and all five outfielders, Duffy would likely be squeezed out (at least to start the season). Santana will repeat AAA after posting a .449 SLG (18 HR) but a mind-boggling 102:9 K/BB rate. This is a carbon copy of the old Juan Francisco profile. Morel predictably struggled in an aggressive AA assignment last year. He'll get another shot this year and won't turn 23 until July, but because the prior regime added him to the 40-man roster so prematurely, he'll burn his second option this season and will have just one remaining heading into next year when he's unlikely to be ready for the bigs. Given the option predicament, he's a prime trade candidate. Shortstop -We desperately need a breakout year from Nico Hoerner, who was maddeningly mercurial last season but made some adjustments in September that offered a potential harbinger of promising things to come. The offensive bar for middle infielders remains low, so an OPS+ around 100 would be sufficient given his above-average glove and contact rates. Amaya has an advanced skillset at the plate and should be decent enough with the glove. He's the most recent addition to the 40-man as it seems inevitable that he'll be up at some point this season. Outfielders -Almost no roster uncertainty here as Rivas is damn close to a lock. His 137 OPS+ in 265 MLB plate appearances in August and September was a stunning development. Even the most optimistic Rivas advocate could not have predicted a .285/.380/.503 line. Barrera was arguably the best rookie in the NL last year and reprise his lead-off role against both LHP and RHP. I'm not sold that he'll hit .318 again, but the bat-to-ball skills are so advanced that he's unlikely to fall into prolonged slumps. We brought Duvall in to balance the lineup against LHP. He'll primarily DH but could draw an occasional start in one of the corners. Haniger needs to regain some of his prior plate discipline, but he'll hopefully be motivated by his impending free agency. Heyward remains among the five worst contracts in baseball and I fully expect another 65 OPS+ season. Starting Pitchers -Four of the five are set here with Paxton, Manaea, Hendricks, and Hernandez. Seabold and Schmidt are both candidates for the fifth spot, but we may end up piecing together bullpen games to start the season. As Spring Training begins, Seabold is a bit ahead of Schmidt. Steele put together an under-the-radar season at AAA (3.2 WAR, 9.4K/9), but his pedigree is well behind Seabold and Clarke. The issue is that he's out of options and might not get through waivers. Marquez is the second-best pitcher in the system and top 70-ish overall, but he's increasingly looking destined for the bullpen. With 45 stamina and 40 control, I'm skeptical that he'll ever be able to work his way through big league lineups. He'll end up with some sort of role later this season, and long term, he could be an answer as a flame-throwing closer. For now, he'll anchor the rotation at Iowa after finishing third in the AA South Cy Young voting. Relief Pitchers -Knebel is the big-ticket acquisition at the back end of the bullpen and needs to repeat 2021's clean bill of health. Floro, Pena, Suter, and Damon Jones are the other new arrivals with Jones required to stay on the roster for a minimum of 90 days as a Rule 5 pick. Pena still has an option remaining despite his "advanced" age (31) and, like McHugh, is a versatile piece who could open or follow. Romano struggled as a high-leverage guy last year but should be much more comfortable working in middle relief this season. He's due for substantial positive regression (3.85 FIP, 5.70 ERA) after being victimized by a .380 BABIP and surreal strand rate (63.4%). We ended up bringing Chafin back, but he looks like a drastically-depleted pitcher after ending last season as a 50/55. With Jones and Suter around, we hopefully don't need to lean on him to handle lefties. Wick and Maples look like DFA candidates as out-of-options 40s bumped way down the pecking order with the arrival of the off-season acquisitions. Maples struck out 11.7 K/9 and a decent 4.43 FIP. We DFA'ed fellow RHP Jason Adam last week to open up a spot on the 40-man. Manuel Rodriguez was the AA South Reliever of the Year last season and wiped out hitters with a 0.96 ERA (2.29 FIP) and 50 strikeouts in 37 innings. The walks will likely remain a problem (4.8 BB/9), but he's in line to jump into the bigs as soon as one of the bullpen guys goes down. 2022 Out of Options SP Justin Steele RP Dillon Maples RP Rowan Wick Last edited by JAF373; 04-30-2021 at 01:32 AM.