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JAF373 · 05-03-2021, 05:18 PM

May 24, 2022

Well, not great, but certainly in better shape than at this time last year. As set forth in the stats section below, we've had breakout seasons from Mike Ford and Nico Hoerner and complete busts from Mitch Haniger and Jorge Polanco. And, a few days ago, we found a new home for disaffected Jason Heyward.

After a last place finish last season, the revamped bullpen is paying dividends. In a completely unforeseen development, Justin Steele is the team leader in FIP. He's pitched in some big spots and often goes multiple innings. James Paxton's FIP is two full runs lower than his ERA and portends success moving forward this season. He's running a completely unsustainable .380 BABIP, but the velocity (96-98) is back to pre-injury levels. Kyle Hendricks might be finished. Low-velocity arms across baseball (even those with good control) are getting shellacked. He's still owed $14M through next season, though we'll able to decline the team option in 2024. Connor Seabold was smoked in three of his five starts and is now back at Iowa. I'm sure he'll get another opportunity this season, but it's an unfortunate turn of events. His stuff is too flat and hittable right now. Clarke Schmidt replaced Seabold in the rotation last week and will get a long leash in his bid to establish a foothold. Damon Jones' surface numbers look fantastic, but he's on borrowed time with equivalent walk and strikeout rates.

Transactions:

04/30/22: Purchased the contract of OF Nick Martini
-We needed another outfielder when Alfonso Rivas went down with a month-long injury in late April. Martini posts consistently elite on-base numbers and passable corner outfield defense with zero power. With an option remaining, we were able to send him back to Iowa upon Rivas' return a few days ago.

05/19/22: Traded OF Jason Heyward, 3B Chris Morel, 1B Jared Young and RHP Peyton Remy to HOU for SS Grae Kessinger and RHP Tyler Ivey

-Just a bit to unpack here. Amidst his vocal trade demands, Heyward was still owed approximately $38M over this season and next season (approximately $6M already paid this season). After some wrangling, Houston agreed to eat 20% of the remaining deal (approximately $7.6M) and shipped us their 7th-best prospect, Tyler Ivey, and borderline top 30 guy Grae Kessinger. Of course, Houston is arguably the most barren system in baseball at the moment, and some of their guys in the mid-teens wouldn't crack the top 30 in a system like Detroit. Ivey is a fringe big league starter who pitched to a 4.99 FIP at AAA last year with a 10.6K/9 rate. He was much improved over seven starts this season prior to the trade and could factor into the big league spot starter/bulk inning mix later this season. Kessinger is "glove-only," but finished with a 1.1 WAR at AA last season and posted a .372 OBP. He was Houston's 2nd round pick in 2019 and fills an immediate need as the everyday shortstop at AA Tennessee.

The prospect headliner in the deal is Chris Morel, 22, who was our 9th-ranked prospect at the start of the season. The issue with Morel is that next year will be his final option year and he's nowhere near ready for the bigs. The prior regime erred in prematurely adding him to the 40-man roster, and with Arenado blocking him at third, I couldn't find a path to big league playing time for him next season. He's off to a decent start in his second go-round at Double A (91 OPS + this year; 80 OPS+ last year), but ultimately, his value to us was as a conduit to removing the some of the yoke of the Heyward contract.

Jared Young, 26, is a first base-only prospect who made the AA South ASG last season en route to a 2.8 WAR. He doesn't hit for enough power to clear the bar at first base (.112 ISO) and is unlikely to develop it at his advanced prospect age. The top of our organization is loaded at first base with Rizzo, Ford, Luken Baker, and (maybe) Christian Santana. Peyton Remy is organization filler and a minimum-rated player (20).

05-03-2021, 05:18 PM	#20
JAF373 Minors (Triple A) Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 256	Cubs at 18-22 at Quarter Pole May 24, 2022 Well, not great, but certainly in better shape than at this time last year. As set forth in the stats section below, we've had breakout seasons from Mike Ford and Nico Hoerner and complete busts from Mitch Haniger and Jorge Polanco. And, a few days ago, we found a new home for disaffected Jason Heyward. After a last place finish last season, the revamped bullpen is paying dividends. In a completely unforeseen development, Justin Steele is the team leader in FIP. He's pitched in some big spots and often goes multiple innings. James Paxton's FIP is two full runs lower than his ERA and portends success moving forward this season. He's running a completely unsustainable .380 BABIP, but the velocity (96-98) is back to pre-injury levels. Kyle Hendricks might be finished. Low-velocity arms across baseball (even those with good control) are getting shellacked. He's still owed $14M through next season, though we'll able to decline the team option in 2024. Connor Seabold was smoked in three of his five starts and is now back at Iowa. I'm sure he'll get another opportunity this season, but it's an unfortunate turn of events. His stuff is too flat and hittable right now. Clarke Schmidt replaced Seabold in the rotation last week and will get a long leash in his bid to establish a foothold. Damon Jones' surface numbers look fantastic, but he's on borrowed time with equivalent walk and strikeout rates. Transactions: 04/30/22: Purchased the contract of OF Nick Martini -We needed another outfielder when Alfonso Rivas went down with a month-long injury in late April. Martini posts consistently elite on-base numbers and passable corner outfield defense with zero power. With an option remaining, we were able to send him back to Iowa upon Rivas' return a few days ago. 05/19/22: Traded OF Jason Heyward, 3B Chris Morel, 1B Jared Young and RHP Peyton Remy to HOU for SS Grae Kessinger and RHP Tyler Ivey -Just a bit to unpack here. Amidst his vocal trade demands, Heyward was still owed approximately $38M over this season and next season (approximately $6M already paid this season). After some wrangling, Houston agreed to eat 20% of the remaining deal (approximately $7.6M) and shipped us their 7th-best prospect, Tyler Ivey, and borderline top 30 guy Grae Kessinger. Of course, Houston is arguably the most barren system in baseball at the moment, and some of their guys in the mid-teens wouldn't crack the top 30 in a system like Detroit. Ivey is a fringe big league starter who pitched to a 4.99 FIP at AAA last year with a 10.6K/9 rate. He was much improved over seven starts this season prior to the trade and could factor into the big league spot starter/bulk inning mix later this season. Kessinger is "glove-only," but finished with a 1.1 WAR at AA last season and posted a .372 OBP. He was Houston's 2nd round pick in 2019 and fills an immediate need as the everyday shortstop at AA Tennessee. The prospect headliner in the deal is Chris Morel, 22, who was our 9th-ranked prospect at the start of the season. The issue with Morel is that next year will be his final option year and he's nowhere near ready for the bigs. The prior regime erred in prematurely adding him to the 40-man roster, and with Arenado blocking him at third, I couldn't find a path to big league playing time for him next season. He's off to a decent start in his second go-round at Double A (91 OPS + this year; 80 OPS+ last year), but ultimately, his value to us was as a conduit to removing the some of the yoke of the Heyward contract. Jared Young, 26, is a first base-only prospect who made the AA South ASG last season en route to a 2.8 WAR. He doesn't hit for enough power to clear the bar at first base (.112 ISO) and is unlikely to develop it at his advanced prospect age. The top of our organization is loaded at first base with Rizzo, Ford, Luken Baker, and (maybe) Christian Santana. Peyton Remy is organization filler and a minimum-rated player (20). Last edited by JAF373; 05-03-2021 at 05:43 PM.