I thought I would give Jiggs McGee the weekend off and weigh in with some pre draft thoughts for The Figment Sporting Journal.
1937 - A DRAFT LIKE NO OTHER
We just a couple of weeks away from the 27th annual FABL draft. This one will be the first draft ever held during the regular season as a couple of changes were made over the winter. Seeing the Figment Draft moved to June for the first time seems like a big enough change to warrant plenty of attention but in reality that move caused barely a ripple when compared to the other new wrinkle that has been added to this year's draft format.
Due to the negative effect a visible mock draft has on our stats only environment the league commissioner has decided that the first two rounds of players listed in the final mock will be removed from the general draft and instead be selected in a lottery format. For those who might be following along that are not part of the league here is a quick outline of the new format:
- The 32 players that the AI deems to be the 32 best in the draft pool will be split into eight groups of four players each. - GMs will pick a group, starting with the team with the #1 pick. So the worst teams will pick their group first. Then we'll go through and each of the 16 GMs will pick their first group and then we'll repeat the process and everyone picks their second group. Each group is restricted to 4 teams selecting it.
- Once the groups are determined a random draw will decide which player in each group goes to which team.
- The third thru 12th rounds will be drafted in the standard format before the AI takes over for the remaining rounds.
There was some controversy in the league and endorsement of the new format was not 100% but the bottom line is ever since the mock draft was added to OOTP our drafts have been getting far too predictable. Even with recent changes to minimize the accuracy of the mock draft, it is felt by many in the league that the Mock reveals far too much in a league that plays in a 'stats-only' format. Ideally one day the developers will give online leagues the ability to simply hide the mock draft from view just as player ratings can be hidden in our league, but until that day comes FABL is forced to look for workaround solutions.
The 'storyline' we will use going forward is this 2 round portion at the top is part of a return to a focus on scouting. Perhaps the OSA has been relied on too heavily because Rufus Barrell, Possum Daniels and their staff have simply done too good a job identifying talent. Now it will force FABL clubs to go out and beat the bushes looking for top talent to sign.
There could be some strategy involved in this as well that will make it unique. Do you as a GM look at the group with the best player, knowing there is a 50% chance you get one of the bottom two guys of the 32 in the lottery? Or do you look for a balanced group with 4 guys you might be very happy with any of? These picks can still be traded so how valuable will they be perceived to be? Will third rounders start to take on much greater value in the future? Some have said there is far too much randomness in this new format and while I don't disagree with that statement, I do feel the previous standard draft system has been robbed of much of it's fun as we came to realize just how much the mock draft takes away from our league by what it reveals. Personally I would love for us to try a system that eliminated the draft and was based entirely on scouting players and bidding bonus offers to try and land them, but there is probably no easy way to do this in game and it would likely be too cumbersome for the commissioner to administer outside of the game. The new system we will use this year seems like it's worth a shot and will not be too much work for the commissioner. Will it have flaws? Quite possibly but I am more than willing to embrace the new system and see what happens as I am sure if it turns out to not be something liked by the vast majority that other compromise solutions will be explored.
OCKIE HOLLIDAY IS A PERFECT EXAMPLE WHY THE MOCK DRAFT IS BAD FOR STATS ONLY LEAGUES
This draft could be the first one that has a second baseman go number one since 1921 when the Keystones selected Howie Shifflett out of Houston High School. Roosevelt Brewer from Washington High School in Chicago is listed as the number one prospect on the current mock, followed by Syracuse High School catcher Pete Casstevens and then Ockie Holliday, a third baseman from tiny Poweshiek College in Grinnell, Iowa. I am not certain who actually will be recorded as the first overall selection under this new format but it is quite possible the top two rounds of guys will be not considered part of the draft at all so whoever is taken with the first pick of the third round will be considered the number one pick. Either way, both Brewer and Casstevens look to have the potential for outstanding big league careers.
The third ranked player is perhaps the best illustrations for why many in the league feels the inclusion of the game generated Mock Draft effects us so negatively. If the in-game Mock was not visible there would be great debate about the merits of Ockie Holliday, who is ranked #3. Holliday put up huge power numbers so he would certainly have drawn some attention:
Code:
MOST HR BY A COLLEGE PLAYER IN NON FEEDER ERA
YEAR NAME HR SCHOOL COMP
1937 Ockie Holliday 18 Poweshiek College Poor
1934 Sal Pestilli 16 Narragansett Avg
1934 Bob Donoghue 15 Iowa A&M Good
1935 Billy Dalton 14 Perry State College Poor
1934 Alf Pestilli 13 Narragansett Avg
1936 Sal Pestilli 13 Narragansett Avg
1937 Sherry Lewis 13 Daniel Boone Coll Great
1937 Alex Turner 13 Lincoln College Great
However, Holliday would have a ton of question marks had we not known the game ranks him as a high first round pick. Think about it. If there was no mock draft your scout would likely still speak highly of Holliday but all of us have learned how wrong our scouts can be some times. We all love our pitchers as well so I think without a mock there is a good chance Holliday slips to the bottom of the first round or maybe well into the second.
Holliday played just one season of college ball, so that would seem to be a little bit of a red flag. Why did he not exist prior to his junior year at Poweshiek? And Poweshiek itself is an ever bigger red flag. It has a competition quality of 'Poor' so scouting directors might be concerned those power numbers are greatly inflated compared to what he might have done at a larger school. A savvy GM might have his staff compare Holliday to Billy Dalton, who was picked 10th overall in 1936 and feel he is worth the chance, but then again would Dalton have gone 10th had he not been listed in the first round of the mock draft in his selection year? The bottom line as to why our league is forced to drastically change the draft format is because of the mock and what it gives away about players like Ockie Holliday and Billy Dalton.
Enough on the problems the Mock Draft causes our league and on to some fun draft facts:
There are plenty of recognizable names in this draft class. We have a pair of Pestilli brothers this time around. Sal was selected first overall last season and eldest brother Alf was a fourth round pick in 1934. Both are out of Narragansett College in Rhode Island while Joe Pestilli bucked the family tradition and played second base for New York Maritime College last season. Joe is ranked #4 in the Mock so he will be part of the "Lottery" portion of this year's draft. Finally we have Tony, an outfielder like Sal and Alf, who is an 18 year old senior at Westerly High School. Tony has committed to Narragansett but will also be part of the lottery portion of the draft.
Sons of former big leaguers in this pool include catcher Pete Casstevens, the Adwell Award winner who's father Clint is a former Whitney Award winning outfielder, and Joe York, who's dad Dick is a former first round pick who won 2 World Championships and enjoyed a long career in Detroit before moving to a managerial role in the Dynamos system. Finally, we have Buck Swan Jr, who was born in Pittsburgh but played his high school ball in Portland where dad Buck Sr. finished out his pro career in the Great Western League. Buck Sr, a first baseman played 59 games over three seasons with the Pittsburgh Miners after being a 1921 3rd round pick of Cleveland. Buck Sr is perhaps best known for playing on two AIAA championship teams at Liberty College.
The commissioner always provides us with some great nicknames among the draftees and this time around is no different. The two best in my opinion are Bob Moran, a high school centerfielder known as 'The Kenosha Kid" while far and away the top one is "The Woonsocket Rocket", as 17 year old Buck Pusey is known. Pusey, who played at Woonsocket (RI) HS likely had a good rivalry going with fellow centerfielder Tony Pestilli, from Westely (RI) High.
There are 16 players born in New York City eligible for this draft and another 7 from Brooklyn so it is the area that provides the most players but Chicago is also right there. Just from Chicago itself are 14 players as well as several others from the surrounding areas. Headlining the list of Chicago players is Washington High School star Roosevelt Brewer, who is ranked #1 in the mock draft. Brewer is one of several very good second base prospects that headline this class with another one being fellow Chicago native Harry Sheridan, who went east to Empire State University for his college ball and is pegged as a second rounder.
Here are the current mock rankings. There may some final juggling as draft day approaches but the vast majority of these players will compromise the new 'lottery slot' section of the draft.
Code:
TOP PLAYERS IN THE MOCK DRAFT
# NAME POS AGE SCHOOL BIRTHPLACE COLLEGE COMMITTMENT
1 Roosevelt Brewer 2B 17 Washington HS, Chicago, Il Chicago, IL Whitney College
2 Pete Casstevens C 18 Syracuse (NY) HS Montreal, QC Grafton
3 Okie Holliday 3B 21 Poweshiek College Sheldon, Iowa -
4 Joe Pestilli 2B 20 New York Maritime College Westerly, RI -
5 Juan Pomales CF 22 St. Francis(OH) Univ. Havana, Cuba -
6 Wes Parks 2B 18 Bryan (TX) HS Bryan, TX Coastal State
7 Luke Micheals SS 18 Santa Barbara (CA) HS Los Angeles, CA Bluegrass State
8 Tom Frederick CF 21 Hammond College Quanah, TX -
9 Eddie Haley CF 20 Portland Tech Harvey, IL -
10 Bill Carr SS 20 Columbia Military Academy Pasadena, CA -
11 Marv Smith RF 22 Portland Tech Butte, MT -
12 Spud Bent 3B 20 Maryland State New York, NY -
13 Dick Hall RF 21 Laclede University Cincinnati, OH -
14 Paul Hall CF 22 President's College Sioux City, IA -
15 Tony Pestilli CF 18 Westerly (RI) HS Westerly, RI Narragansett
16 Ed Greenwood CF 21 Mississippi Tech Kansas City, KS -
ROUND TWO
# NAME POS AGE SCHOOL BIRTHPLACE COLLEGE COMMITTMENT
17 Constantine Peters CF 21 Springfield State Shelbyville, TN -
18 Cotton Dillon CF 18 Hillsdale (MI) HS Detroit, MI Indiana A&M
19 Paul Wilkerson C 21 Oklahoma City State Cleveland, OH -
20 Joe Herman CF 21 Grange College Detroit, MI -
21 Duke Hendricks P 21 Baton Rogue State Clementon, NJ -
22 Bob Pettaway CF 20 Baton Rogue State Dora, AL -
23 Willie Hall SS 18 Athol (MA) HS Woonsocket, RI College of Waco
24 Eric Fiore 2B 18 East HS, Cleveland, OH Toledo, OH Bluegrass State
25 Phil Squires C 21 Grange College Homestead, PA -
26 Jim Hammond 1B 20 Redwood University Salt Lake City, UT -
27 Ira Armstrong 2B 18 Boonton (NJ) HS Boonton, NJ Chesapeake State
28 Ray Powell RF 18 Little Rock (AR) HS Searcy, AR Spokane State
29 Henry Sheridan 2B 21 Empire State University Chicago, IL -
30 Charlie Nathan RF 21 South Valley State Broomwood, TX -
31 Alex Turner SS 21 Lincoln College Portland, OR -
32 Bud Mullen CF 17 Rain HS, Mobile, AL Mobile, AL Bayou State
RANDOM NOTES ON PLAYERS LISTED IN THE MOCK
I was surprised to see more than half of the list is comprised of college players although 4 of the first seven on the mock, including the top two, are high schoolers. The Pestilli family is not the only one's making the tiny state of Rhode Island proud as Woonsocket native Willie Hall joins the two Pestilli boys on the mock list.
This year's draft class has two Cuban born players in 18 year old high school SS Rafael Mendoza and 22 year old outfielder Juan Pomales, who shows up at #5 in the mock draft. There have been very few Cuban players in FABL but the ones who have succeed have exclusively been outfielders with Pomales looking to become the fifth Cuban born outfielder to be drafted in the first round.
Code:
CUBAN BORN FIRST ROUND PICKS
NAME PK# YEAR TEAM
Pablo Reyes 3 1932 Montreal
Carlos Cano 4 1919 NY Gothams
Sandy Lovelle 8 1919 Baltimore
Carlos Montes 12 1934 Cougars
Only 5 have ever made the major leagues. The best known one would be Sandy Lovelle, who played over 1000 games in the Baltimore outfield in the 1920s but he may be eclipsed soon by Montreal Saints centerfielder Pablo Reyes. The 25 year old Reyes, who like Lovelle was born in Havana, played his college ball at Bayou State. Carlos Cano, who played nearly 800 games is the third with Tony Lopez, who had a couple cups of coffee with Washington and the Cougars from 1919-1922, and Elias Marquez, who appeared in 2 games in 1902 rounding out the list of Cuban FABL players.
We don't have feeder leagues any more and there are no college standings but if there were I would bet Bluegrass State has developed in to a college powerhouse. The Louisville school has already given us one player who is having a pretty good start in FABL. That is outfielder Lew Seals of Pittsburgh and there are a pair of minor league shortstops with some promise in Tip Harrison (RD 2, 1934) and Ron Ford (Rd 6, 1936). Despite only being in existence since 1934 when the feeders were eliminated, the Mustangs have had 8 players drafted as well as 17 high school seniors that had committed to Bluegrass State but turned pro instead. This year's graduating class at Bluegrass State is a little thin with only 3B Charlie Shoemaker available but the school has landed an outstanding recruiting class of high school players highlighted by Luke Michaels, a shortstop from California who will be part of the lottery.
For the first time in it's brief history we nearly had two High School All-Americans selected from the same school. Cotton Dillon and John Smith are both outfielders from Hillsdale High in Michigan. Smith, a sophomore, slashed .547/.571/.849 and narrowly missed inclusion on the team. Dillon, a senior who has committed to Indiana A&M but will be part of the lottery as a mock second round pick, did make the All-American team. Another Hillsdale player, third baseman Andy Beasley, is expected to be a later round pick. Dillon and Beasley will be the first Hillsdale player's drafted.
Food for thought. Knowing what we know about the future, I wonder if players who attended military or maritime schools would be any more likely to be among the first to enlist when the US eventually enters WWII. If so, does that diminish the value of a player like Joe Pestilli or Bill Carr?
Salt Lake City High School must have struck fear into opposing pitchers back in the day as Jim Hammond, a second round mock pick, and 1935 second rounder Tiny Tim Hopkins would likely have been teammates in 1934 before Hammond went off to Redwood University. Both look to have plenty of power with Hopkins coming into his own as a second year prospect and is hitting .362 with 11 homers in 44 games at Class C while Hammond stroked 23 homers at California's Redwood University over 150 career games. Likewise, I wonder if current second round mock SS Alex Turner was ever a teammate at Portland's Central Catholic High School of 1935 second overall pick Red Johnson before Turner went off to Lincoln College.
I am not sure we will ever see college teammates go 1-2 in the draft again, like we did in 1934 when St Blane pitchers Bobo White and Gus Goulding were the top two selections to Washington and Baltimore respectively. However, Oregon's Portland Tech does have a pair of outfielders ranked in the top 11 in Eddie Haley and Marv Smith while both Baton Rogue State and Grange College have 2 players listed as second rounders.
The draft is two weeks away in game time meaning teams are likely hard at work planning their strategy and it will be interesting to see how the new system works. If nothing else there will be a lot of nervous tension waiting to see how the balls drop with those first two rounds of players.