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John Stanton and his baseball consultant Tim Herman are watching the Friday evening game from Texas against the Rangers.....
John - Tim I really appreciate you coming in here and helping me with this.
Tim - It's a big decision John, one you waited during last off-season with all the issues around Covid-19 and just where the club is.
John - Yes I hated to have lame duck situations, I am really not a fan of that but both Jerry and Scott were ok with it considering the circumstances.
Tim - Well they really didn't have a lot of choice in it did they. I mean the overall record coming into this season was 349-359 in 5 seasons. The best finish was in 2016 when the club finished 2nd and 9 games out of first.
John - Well the mistake under the previous club chairman was to try and quickly build on the 2015 season, but the club didn't have a lot of assets at the time.
Tim - And DiPoto tried to make something out of a mess and crashed in 2017.
John - Yes but now he has built one of the top farm system in baseball and the club is on the rise this year. We could break that playoff drought this year. Based on that, you saw the article in the Seattle Times. Larry Stone made a public pitch for them to be brought back.
Tim - Yes I read the Times column and Stone is a very good baseball writer. Has been for 30 years, but I'm not sure if I were you I'd be awarding any participation trophies or contract extensions based on 2/3 of a season. I mean honestly if the season ended today, it would be another year without playoffs in Seattle and how is that any different than any other year since 2001?
John - But this year is going well.
Tim - So let it play out a little bit farther. Look if the team looks like it can get into the playoffs then my consulting job here will be short. But based on the statistics of the team and the fluky extra innings record of 10-1 and the 1-run record of 24-11, this team has been very fortunate to be where they are at. In fact I would suspect a below 500 team based on general performance statistics.
And let's talk about the farm system a bit. Right now the club has 4 very good prospects all rated in Baseball America's top 20. Two of the 4 are in the big leagues right now, while Julio Rodriguez the #4 overall prospect is in AA. (Jared Kelenic #14 and SP Logan Gilbert is #18). The other top 20 guy is SP Emerson Hancock who is in AA and likely a season or two away. After those 4 guys there is a big drop off in my mind. SP George Kirby is the clubs #5 prospect at #111 overall. #6 SS Noelvi Marte is #133. #7 OF Taylor Trammell (#157) is with the big league club and has hit for some power but is struggling hitting around 170.
The club has 5 more top 500 prospects ranked between #240 and #466. So while yes the top of the minor league system is flush and gives the team a #2 ranking there is not a lot behind those 4. Good pieces yes at the top but 2 have already debuted and then what.
John - So you don't think the future is so bright?
Tim - It has a chance to be, but I'm not convinced the right guy is driving the ship. But we will see.
John - But the club could break the playoff drought this year.
Tim - Yeah it could, they are within striking distance but there were a lot of assets that were available and the team really didn't go out of its way to acquire much. If I were a betting man, I would bet that the team finishes the season with around a 500 record and its huge run in extra inning and 1-run games slows down. And 500 doesn't get you into the playoffs.
John - So your advice is to wait and see. But if they make the playoffs you think extensions are in order?
Tim - Yes continue to be patient. Let the season play out and yes if the club makes a serious run and somehow manages to win 90 even without making the playoffs, then you should give them both 3-year contract extensions.
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