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It is a crapshoot. I've won a handful (probably 3-4) 64 team tournaments, about the same 32 team tournaments that I'll hop in if they are almost full. Probably about 1 in 15 I make it to the money rounds, compared to about 30% of the time in bronze tournaments.
The issue is as they add cards to the pull it becomes a lot more unpredictable, and because of general power creep if you don't get some serious bang for your buck in the perfect and diamond rounds you will have a weak team unless you get very lucky in the gold/silver rounds of the draft. The last time I finished top 4 my first pick was Schmidt (an absolute BEAST in PD, I haven't had him OPS less than 1.200 in the 3 times I've drafted him) followed by Specer Torkelson and Justin Upton.
The other thing I've noticed is perfect, diamond, and even gold pitchers in most cases, are not worth the investment. There are some specific exceptions like Oswalt, but I've found 2-3 silvers and then a few bronzes with high control just works better. Also don't invest much in your 5th starter, if you go deep into a 64 team tournament the 5th starter will get 3 or so less starts than 1-4.
You will have a lot of 1 round exits this way if your offense doesn't come through, but it is also (in my experience) the best way to actually win tournaments. I'd rather lose in the 1st round than the 4th - you get the same amount either way. Then at least I can get into another one quicker. For this same reason I tend to draft high stuff/con pitchers and roll the dice on the HRs - if they get hit I lose if they don't hit it out it works out really well. Again, better to lose fast or win.
Because of the watered down pitching, super high eye rated offensive cards can be pretty nuts. A guy like McGraw is going to walk 1-2 times every game on average.
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