A few posts ago I promised some updates and details about the Denver Brewers at this stage of the season, so here that is, albeit just a bit later than I intended.
We have reached the All-Star break and are just a bit past the technical mid-way point of the 1983 season.
Here are some of the numbers:
Now, going position by position with a bit more detail and analysis:
Starting Pitching:
Jim Atwell: For the veteran workhorse and sometimes ace of the staff Atwell the basic stats don't look great - 7-8, 4.21, 1.37 WHIP. Granted his BABIP against (.320) is much higher than his career average (.271). His FIP is a respectable 3.79 with a FIP- of 87. Most of his stats speak to Atwell's continuing value as one of the most consistent and durable arms in the league and the most obvious variance from the past is in the area of hits allowed per 9 innings pitched (9.8- 2 runs above career average), and with the likelihood that those BABIP numbers will come down over time, no reason to worry about Atwell.
Bryant Cox: Cox, who was drafted a few rounds after Atwell in the 1975 draft, continues to be a solid rotation arm, especially given that he was an unheralded 7th round draft pick. Cox also has raw numbers that don't convey how good he has been- 6-6, 3.82, 1.17 WHIP- but his FIP of 3.34 and FIP- of 76 speak to fine pitching on his part.
Austin Bond: The lone lefty in the rotation, Bond has clearly over-achieved in the first half, but it should be remembered that this is the same guy who went 19-6 in his true rookie year of 1980. With a high baseball IQ and a great work ethic (Sparkplug), along with his ability to induce the groundball (extreme groundball tendency), Bond is one of those guys who makes the most of his moderate talents. His 3.82 FIP and 87 FIP- indicate that it hasn't all been luck either, even if his BABIP against (.272) is a bit lower than his career average (.280). Bond was just voted into the All-Star game for the first time in his career.
Mike Costa: The Brewers current top prospect has acquitted himself quite well thus far in his rookie season. Costa's 5-2 record and 3.28 ERA come with a BABIP against of .335, though given his not great control he also has a WHIP of 1.33 that isn't all explained by that high BABIP. But when you also factor in his FIP of 2.98 and FIP- of 68, the future does look pretty bright for the groundballer with two elite pitches (curveball, changeup) to go with a plus fastball, giving him the opportunity to turn into one of the best strikeout pitchers in the league soon with off the charts stuff.
Jose Corpeno: Corpeno often gets lost in the plethora of starting pitching prospects for the Brewers, but he has done a credible job in the rotation and shows some potential for improvement still at age 25, and profiles as a valuable mid-rotation arms on most pitching staffs. An excellent curveball headlines his 4-pitch repertoire, he induces groundballs at a good rate, and he is durable. He may get passed up soon by higher ranked prospects but for now he has earned a spot at the bottom of the rotation and his future is somewhat in his hands. At the very least, he makes for an attractive bit of trade bait if and when that time comes.
Eric Johnson: The Brewers brought veteran control-artist Eric Johnson back into the fold in a trade with Pittsburgh (sending power-hitting third baseman Cameron Rodger to the Roadrunners) almost exactly a month ago. Johnson got his big league start with Denver and pitched parts of 4 seasons as a Brewer but didn't really establish himself as a valuable starter until his early 30's with the Pittsburgh (he went 20-4 with a 3.43 ERA in 1979 at age 32). He was off to a horrible start this season but remains durable and with excellent control, even if his stuff and movement are pretty pedestrian at this stage of his career. The Brewers brought him back partly for sentimental reasons (not only did he get his WPK start in Denver but he is a native of Trinidad, Colorado) but also to add some veteran depth with the loss of both Sadahige Kawasaki and Eric Maisch to injuries. Johnson is a free agent at the end of the season and likely will not return at that time, but it was thought he could be useful this season. Thus far he has gone 1-2 with a 4.26 ERA for Denver with a 4.27 FIP and a BABIP against of .322.
The Bullpen:
Tim Shore: The 37-year old 9-time All Star is the WPK career leader in saves with 378 over his 18 plus year career. This year he has 15 saves in 15 chances, an ERA of 0.38 and a FIP of 2.06. Clearly he has been a bit lucky (BABIP against of .243), but given his consistency over the years and his continued success, and the fact that he was asking for an extension with his contract up at the end of this season, he was recently re-signed through 1986 (with a team option for that last season).
Paul Johnson: The Brewers picked up Johnson in the Rule 5 draft prior to the 1980 season and while he has been mostly solid since then, this year is proving to be his breakout campaign. He is 4-2 with a 2.02 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 3.04 FIP (69 FIP-), and 1.1 WAR over the course of 49 innings pitched. All of which added up to his first All-Star game selection. He is the heir apparent to the closer role although top relief prospect Dan Folk may pass him up before Tim Shore relinquishes that job. Regardless, the 25-year old durable right-hander with multi-inning stamina should be a mainstay in the bullpen for years to come.
Diego Lopez: Speaking of Rule 5 picks, the left-handed 26-year old Lopez was the Brewers lone Rule 5 draftee this past off-season. He has done a fine job so far with 2 wins and no losses, 1 save, an ERA of 2.84 with a 1.14 WHIP, and a 3.53 FIP. He has a great cutter and plus stuff but if his average curveball doesn't start to develop towards its plus potential soon he will likely prove to be a fairly average middle reliever and/or lefty specialist.
Ben Flynn: Team captain Flynn mostly serves as backup first baseman and power-hitting pinch-hitter but he has also pitched just under 23 innings this year, mostly in long-relief or blowout situations. And he has done a decent job, primarily because he has induced a much higher groundball out percentage than historically (61% this year, 50% over the course of his career) and had some luck (.257 BABIP against). He does have great stamina and can be an adequate innings eater out of the 'pen in spite of his below average stuff.
Brandon Veach: This hard-working 28-year old righty has great stamina, is durable, has 2 plus pitches (fastball, slider), and has not had a very good season (5.07 FIP, 116 FIP-, with 1 win, 3 losses, 1 save, a 4.32 ERA and 1.47 WHIP). He's a good guy, can give you multiple innings when needed, and is a completely replaceable middle innings arm. Whether he will be back for 1984 will depend a great deal upon what kind of second half he has.
Jeff Mariani: This left-handed groundball specialist with nasty stuff and plus plus movement led the SJL in saves as a member of the Seattle Alligators in 1980 (36) and compiled 31 more saves the following season. Having joined the Brewers mid-season last year, he went 3-5 with 11 saves and a 3.47 ERA and inflated 1.76 WHIP the rest of the way and then got off to a disastrous 1983 season before missing some time with an oblique strain. He has stabilized a bit since then and is 2-3 with 5 saves, a 3.47 ERA (yes, same as his time with Denver last season) and 1.46 WHIP. His BABIP against has been a bit inflated and he profiles as a much better reliever than he has been so far with the Brewers. But he's not the most likable guy on the team and at 200K not the greatest value either. He is arbitration eligible for 2 more years. He might not remain a Brewer for that entire time though.
Rand Pinti: 27-year old left-handed sinker specialist Rand Pinti is a fan favorite. And a mediocre, if serviceable, reliever. This year he is 2-0 with 1 save and a 4.18 ERA (1.25 WHIP.) He is durable, has good stamina, induces groundballs (as is the rule for Denver Brewers pitchers), but is basically a 1-pitch pitcher (he pairs a crappy changeup, not fooling anybody, with his great sinkerball) and has a low margin for error. Still, he's been a decent member of the 'pen and is incredibly well liked by teammates and fans (and was even an All-Star in 1981). He's probably not going anywhere yet.
A few others have come and gone in the rotation and bullpen this year, but the above are the current members of the staff.
Catchers: Although the Brewers have never had a superstar catcher, for the past many years they have had a solid duo who performed well. For many years that duo was Zacarias Martell and defensive backup Kirk Patnode. They are both gone now, but this new duo is having a great year in 1983.
Willie Ortega: The 26-year old Ortega, who the Brewers acquired in an off-season deal with El Paso back in December of 1981, is ostensibly the starting catcher. After a solid 1982 season (.279/.312/.445, 2.0 WAR) he is hitting a robust .307/.352/.398 this season while being on pace to reach the same WAR total as last season. He is an excellent defensive backstop though his runner thrown out stealing percentage of 28.6% is a bit lower than would be expected given his reputation of having a strong and accurate arm.
Jesse Cooper: Cooper, a 25-year old rookie, is quickly moving towards taking over the starting job. He is hitting an impressive .349/.396/.461 in 169 plate appearances, has a CERA of 3.79, 6th in the MGL (Ortega's is 3.53, 4th best), and a decent 34.4% RTO% in spite of having just an average throwing arm. His .395 BABIP is unsustainable but he does profile as a plus hitting catcher and his .370 wOBA is very excellent. He is a big (6'3", 200 lbs.), durable kid and he looks like the catcher of the future for the Brewers. And that future is starting to happen now.
First basemen:
Brett Taranto: Coming off an MVP season in which he became the first WPK player to hit .400+ for a full season, some measure of a return to earth was to be expected for the 32-year old sparkplug first baseman. His basic stats- .310/.343/.434 slash line- 8 doubles, 5 triples, 7 home runs, 42 runs scored, 45 RBI- wouldn't seem to shabby for most players for roughly a half of a season. But look a bit more closely and you see that Taranto has an OPS+ of 95, and a WAR of 0.5- on pace for an 0.9 WAR season, which would be by far the worst of his career since becoming a regular. He will likely bounce back a bit in the second half but his .304 BABIP doesn't indicate any deficit of luck.
Ben Flynn: One sometimes wonders what might have been if circumstances had led to Flynn being given the chance to be a starting first baseman somewhere and not a two-way player who rarely started. Over the course of his career, in 1,002 plate appearances, Flynn has hit .310/.358/.523 with 55 doubles, 46 home runs, and 186 RBI. He has a solid career OPS+ of 128. This season, in 110 plate appearances, he is hitting .305/.336/.600 with an OPS+ of 130, far better than the starter and reigning league MVP Taranto. Flynn isn't much of a fielder, but at 6'4" he has a long reach and can make most of the routine plays at first. Then again, he is also the most valuable power bat off the bench. And, as noted above, the team captain.
Second base:
Dustin Moore: Although Bobby Erbakan has started a few more games at second than Moore, largely because Moore has also started several games at short and was out of action at the beginning of the season with a sore elbow, Moore is the second baseman of the future for the Brewers. He is a Gold Glove caliber defender at second (and a strong defensive shortstop as well) and can hit a bit too (.308/.332/.435, but an OPS+ of 92). The 24-year old is another sparkplug for the team, is a great base-stealer and base-runner and for a guy who was picked up on waivers (from San Francisco in February of 1982) has proven to be an absolute steal.
Bobby Erbakan: The most long-standing member of the Brewers, the only player left who was drafted by the team in the league's inaugural draft, Bobby is having a decent season in the field and at the plate (.256/.335/.395, 1.2 WAR). But at this late stage of his career (he is 36) he is not only considered Wrecked in terms of injury proneness but he has also become a despised figure in the clubhouse (disruptive). Just a few days ago he was quoted as telling the Denver Daily News: "Don't care what other people think. Bobby knows who Bobby is." He is signed through 1985 but there is a team option on the last season of the contract. His days as a Brewer are numbered, but what the number is remains a bit of mystery.
Third basemen:
Craig Hoover: Hoover is an excellent defensive third baseman who should compete for a Gold Glove award. He is an adequate hitter with some occasional power (.281/.307/.384). He is also injury prone (fragile). He is the starting third baseman for now, but it is not clear how long he can keep that job.
Russell Fleming: At some point it will probably need to be accepted that Fleming's hitting stats are mostly for real. After hitting .357/.388/.510 in 255 plate appearances last season he is now hitting .372/.400/.488 over the course of 140 plate appearances this year. In what basically amounts to a full-season's worth of plate appearances at the big league level (573 career WPK PA) he has hit .342/.372/.483 with an OPS+ of 125. If it weren't for his mediocre at best fielding at third he would probably be the starter by now. He is a very fine right fielder but that job belongs to a certain 3-time MVP named Antonio Acuna. Still, Fleming is durable, he is versatile, he is a hard-worker, and he just rakes. It is probably past time that the 26-year old be given a more regular role on the club.
Shortstop:
Shawn York: York has a Gold Glove level defensive package at short. He is also probably the fastest man on the team and a tremendous base runner and stealer. And he can't hit a lick: .238/.280/.361, OPS+ of 60- and that is an improvement over earlier in the season as he's been a bit hot at the plate of late. He gives way to Dustin Moore at short usually a few games a week to strengthen the lineup a bit.
Left field:
Val Guzman: Val just keeps on being Val. Which is to say a strong leader in the clubhouse, a role model on the field and off of it, and an over-achiever. At the age of 29 he is just having another Val-type season, on pace for 4.5 WAR, was voted in as the starting left-fielder for the MGL All-Star squad, is leading the team in home runs with 15, hitting .309/.364/.526, with a 121 OPS+, has 11 stolen bases, and a decent 2.1 ZR in left with 4 outfield assists. Just Val being Val again. And yeah, he's my favorite Brewer these days!
Center field:
Joe McPhillips: The 1974 MGL MVP, McPhillips is now 34 years old and injury prone but he remains a valuable member of the club, the only team he has ever played for, when healthy and this year is hitting .317/.414/.467 with 2.1 WAR (on pace for 3.8). He probably shouldn't be playing center these days as he has lost a step or two and his -6.3 ZR is the worst of his career by far. He's another guy who plays his heart out (sparkplug) and he remains a good and aggressive base runner and base stealer. He would be a great corner outfielder but those jobs are filled at the moment with other great players. He spells Acuna in right field on occasion and perhaps will need to get more experience at first base before too long. But he will likely be a Brewer for his entire career and we can only hope that this includes several more seasons as productive as this one.
Right field:
Antonio Acuna: Acuna came basically out from nowhere to become the MGL MVP for three straight seasons (1979-1981). And while his numbers had declined a bit since then, he remains one of the finest right fielders in the league, likely to win his 3rd Gold Glove award at the end of this season. He got off to a slow start at the plate this season but he and Val Guzman have been the hottest hitters the past few weeks leading into the All-Star break and he was the 4th and final Brewer named to the All-Star squad this year (his 4th). With his recent hot streak he is now hitting .311/.342/.500 with a 3.2 WAR, on pace for a nearly 6 WAR season. He is 30 but durable and remains one of the best players on the team.
4th Outfielder:
Of the non-starters in the outfield this season, including Angelo Rivas, who has been the best defensive center fielder, and the since traded Eric Dougherty,
Myles Ford has emerged as the best all-around player. Ford, a 26-year old who was picked up in a trade with Los Angeles mid-season 1982, is hitting .364/.398/.591 in 122 plate appearances, is very fast and a decent base runner, and can play all 3 outfield positions, though he is best in left field, where he could be GG caliber. He is on pace for a 2.5 WAR season as a backup outfielder, pinch-hitter, and only occasional starter and has earned the primary 4th outfielder gig for now.