[ayaghmour2]

The Bats
it's a bit hard to blame the offense that scored more runs then any other Continental Association team, but I think I'll find a way too. Sure, they led the league in slugging, OPS, WAR, wOBA, hits, extra base hits, and homers while second in average and OBP, but we just could not run the bases, last in the league for steals and base running. Still, the offense was really impressive, just take a look at the guy with the most plate appearances and how they performed:

C Mike Taylor: 399 PA, 93 OPS+, 2.3 WAR
1B Ray Ford: 640 PA, 129 OPS+, 4.2 WAR
2B Freddie Jones: 654 PA, 120 OPS+, 4.3 WAR
3B John Lawson: 702 PA, 131 OPS+, 5.9 WAR
SS Billy Hunter: 596 PA, 104 OPS+, 2.9 WAR
LF Leo Mitchell: 697 PA, 126 OPS+, 4.2 WAR
CF Carlos Montes: 335 PA, 94 OPS+, 2.7 WAR
RF Rich Langton: 680 PA, 113 OPS+, 2.9 WAR

You can't really find a weakness here, as our worst two hitters were still less then 10% below average, while the other six were all above average, with all but Hunter 10% or better. And if WAR is your thing, each player was worth more then two wins above replacement, and according to Fangraphs, 2-3 WAR players are solid starters, 4-5 are All Stars, and 5-6 are Superstars. So yeah, four regular starters, three All Stars, and a superstar, and we still found away to finish third.

Looking at the individuals versus the overall, John Lawson really led the offense. Yes, technically a 131 OPS+ is tied for his career low, but Lawson had yet another 200 hit season, his fourth 20 homer season, and third consecutive season with 100 or more RBIs. His 5.9 WAR was second highest in his Cougar career, and he set a career high in walks with 62. It was also his fifth 700 PA season, the most he's had as a Cougar and most since 1932. He turns 37 in late October, hasn't had an injury lasting a week or longer in his entire career, and ranks as the second best third basemen in the league while breaking back into the top 10 for all batters. Dave Trowbridge has shown that some hitters can hit forever, and I think Lawson is one of them, and part of the reason I was comfortable letting Ducky Jordan go. Billy Hunter or Hal Wood will eventually have to replace him at the hot corner, but I really don't think Lawson will be quick to give it up.

Freddie Jones managed to stay healthy all season and tallied 654 plate appearances. The oft injured Jones completed back-to-back seasons, and got back on track with an impressive .305/.388/.453 (120 OPS+) season with a career high in doubles (29) and homers (13) while tieing (I have no idea the spelling here) his career high for triples (8). I'd love to see him hit for a higher average next season, but his .453 slugging was his highest since 1935 when he hit an absurd .389/.511/.500. I was hoping his double play partner would have a breakout season, but the soon-to-be 25-year-old Billy Hunter had a bit of a down season. Yes, he had a great 61-to-19 walk-to-strikeout ratio, but his .294/.367/.408 (104 OPS+) batting line left a bit to be desired. Plus he only hit 4 homers despite 6 in 50 games as a rookie and 7 in about the same amount of games this season. His defense wasn't that great either, but I think with beyond elite shortstops like Harry Barrell, George Dawson, Charlie Artuso, and now Jack Bush, it's next to impossible for shortstops to put up solid efficiencies.

One thing that really could have cost us was Ray Ford's three week absence. When you come just a few games short, having an excellent hitter when the offense was struggling could really have made the difference. Ford was an offensive machine, slashing .324/.383/.496 (129 OPS+) with 37 doubles, 7 triples, 16 homers, and 107 RBIs in another outstanding season. He was worth a career best 4.2 wins above replacement and RBIs. Rich Langton put together his first 100 RBI season with a career high in doubles (40) and triples (17) with his fifth consecutive double digit homer season. Unfortunately for the 28-year-old, he's the one who I might end up replacing in the offseason, and is currently the only starter not ranked in the top 8 for positional rankings. Even without a trade, Juan Pomales has shown he is big league ready, and I'd love to give him big league at bats next season. I also can't forget about the 114 strikeouts known as Leo Mitchell, who still managed to hit .352/.397/.466 (126 OPS+) and tied for third in the CA batting race. Those strikeouts were the most in the league and nearly 40 more then his former career high from last season. His leadership was a big help in the clubhouse as well. It will be hard for the offense to replicate this top level production next season, but if they can just win some more one run games...

The Arms
Well if you can't blame the offense, you can blame the pitching, right? The staff that allowed the second fewest runs with best defensive efficiency? Yeah, they weren't really the problem... Sure, the staff wasn't perfect, they were 6th in homers, 6th in WAR, and 5th in hits allowed, and all of that came to bite us. I want to blame the pen, but our pen ERA ended up being second in the league and a very impressive 3.20. I think what really hurt is I gave too many starts to Papenfus and Sullivan, and I should have cut bait with Pug and Joe Brown earlier. Pete was excellent as a reliever, as were Cal Knight and Allen Purvis, with pen ERAs of 1.17, 2.20, and 2.80.

The vets on the wrong end of 34 really anchored the staff, with Dick Lyons and Jim Lonardo both pitching extremely well. even if last year's Allen Winners didn't put up Allen winning seasons in 1939. The 39-year-old Lyons was worth a clean five wins above replacement, but was a sub .500 13-14 with a 3.67 ERA (114 ERA+), 1.27 WHIP, 51 walks, and 54 strikeouts in a career high 257.1 innings pitched. He's now less then 40 innings away from 3,000 for his career, and he currently checks in at 17 in the top pitchers list. Lonardo ranks much higher, 6th and behind just Lefty Allen, Frank Crawford, Joe Hancock, Charlie Stedman, and Sergio Gonzales. Lonardo pitched very similar with both Chicago teams, finishing 15-13 with a 3.39 ERA (125 ERA+), 1.39 WHIP, 65 walks, and 90 strikeouts in 276.1 very effective innings pitched. It will be tough relying on two of the oldest pitchers in the game, but neither have shown signs of slowing down, and neither have had an injury of more then three days.

We'll have to hope for a better seasons from Harry Parker, who was an adjusted league average pitcher, going 14-11 with a 4.19 ERA (100 ERA+), 1.32 WHIP, 68 walks, and 103 strikeouts. He started all 30 games he pitched in and tallied 234 innings pitched in his first big league season. He did manage to lead the league in two categories, homers allowed (36) and BABIP (.258). Of course, we don't want to make a habit of the homers, and I would love if Parker didn't allow more homers then starts every again. Tom Weinstock says it best, he "has the upside to be an ace, but will likely be limited to the back of the rotation until he develops further." I have a lot of faith in the 6'6'' 24-year-old, and I am expecting big things from him. Just like I am from Pete Papenfus. Yes, overall the season was a disaster, but he's just 21! And discounting his one start in April, he managed to lower his ERA each month (7.50, 6.06, 3.48, 1.76, 1.46, 0.00). He finished the season 10-10 with 7 saves, a 4.57 ERA (91 ERA+), 1.56 WHIP, 92 walks, and 126 strikeouts. I'm stunned the walks didn't lead the league while his strikeouts were third, behind Joe Hancock's 131 in 277 innings and George Philips' (who led with 134 walks) 129 in a league high 309. He should fit right behind Parker in the rotation next season, but he'll need to have a nice Spring and will regardless be on a short leash.

A few guys have to worry about next season, including veteran Milt Fritz, who may have had his last 30 start season as a Cougar. He's had four, but this season was a bit tough as the now 30-year-old finished 13-11 with a 4.44 ERA (94 ERA+), 1.47 WHIP, 93 walks, and 49 strikeouts. His 235.1 innings were the least he's thrown as a Cougar, and his 49 strikeouts and 1.9 K/9 were the worst in a full season. Cy Sullivan will also have to fight for a rotation spot, as despite his 13-5 record, he did not pitch like a 13-5 pitcher. He had a poor 5.00 ERA (84 ERA+) and 1.56 WHIP with 51 walks and 37 strikeouts in 162 innings. Like Parker and Papenfus, he is a very highly touted youngster, and just 25, so I'm hoping it was just a little growing pains. Working against him is an option for next season (unlike Pug and Brown) and he continued to see himself miss out on starts due to poor performance.

The pen was pretty strong, especially later in the season, with 26-year-old Cal Knight really excelling in a limited relief role. He tossed just 41 innings, but had a sparkly 2.20 ERA (190 ERA+) despite a 1.90 WHIP, 35 walks, and 17 strikeouts. He's definitely due for regression, and with all three options remaining, he might be the unlucky odd man out starting the season in Milwaukee. Allen Purvis will also have to fight for a spot despite a solid season, but he's 37, out of options, and an important leader in the clubhouse. He has had a resurgence in the pen, as the former spot starter was 2-4 with a 2.80 ERA (149 ERA+), 1.69 WHIP, 23 walks, and 11 strikeouts in 45 innings of his own. Both were far more effective then Joe Brown and Pug Bryan who were both banished to Milwaukee. The exciting youngster from Illinois Joe Brown had a rough season at 25, 1-2 with a 5.46 ERA (76 ERA+), 1.68 WHIP, and 16 walks with just 4 strikeouts in 28 innings with us. Pug was even been worse, 1-4 with a 6.07 ERA (69 ERA+), 2.06 WHIP, 20 walks, and 14 strikeouts in 26.2 innings pitched. Both pitchers are much better then they showed, and Pug is only two seasons removed from 23 reliable starts in 1937. He was 8-9 with a 3.69 ERA (108 ERA+), 1.33 WHIP, 64 walks, and 68 strikeouts in 158.2 innings pitched. I know I won't cut either, but I can see Pug being traded, and potentially Brown if I decide to swing for the fences with a trade. If they remain Cougars, I can't see either of them pitching out of the rotation, but hopefully they can rebuild some value in the pen.

There is also the likely possibility that I look to add another arm to the mix, but it can be very difficult to trade for pitching, as everyone is looking for them. Best case would be packaging Brown and Sullivan for an Art White type arm, someone approaching 30 but not quite there yet, who still has a lot of good years ahead of him. I'm not sure if there really is a good fit with the players available, but whenever I think I'm not going to make a trade, I end up surprising myself.

The Farm
It's a rough ranking now, as we'll get the official top prospects list published tomorrow, but we currently sit 6th in the league with just one top 25 prospects. That would be the hopeful co-ace of the future and "Patron Saint of Groundballs" known more commonly as Johnnie Jones, who was unfortunately downright awful in 1939. He was bad with the Eagles AA team, 8-11 with a 5.21 ERA (89 ERA+) and 1.80 WHIP, but even worse with Mobile, 4-4 with a 6.60 ERA (70 ERA+) and 1.60 WHIP. Combined he had 107 walks and 74 strikeouts in 215 innings pitched, but the skinny 6'4'' southpaw still has shown some signs of encouragement. Weinstock believes he'll top a rotation, a huge plus there, but the OSA comment on his durability might be the crucial final piece of the puzzle. Knowing I can throw him out every four games without worries would be ideal, and he upped his velocity a bit in August to 91-93, a boost in each season since 1936. He has a lot of development left, OSA doesn't think he'll reach the big leagues until 1941, but with all the young pitchers we're stuck juggling in the big leagues, I'm comfortable waiting things out.

I talked a lot about our prospects in the minor league report, but what is nice is the sheer number of top prospects we have been able to accumulate. Sure the rankings are unreliable, but having 48 prospects in the top 500 is nearly one every 10 spots, and we've had a few guys leap up the ladder. Young arms Joe Crosby, Harl Haines, and Ed Wilkinson have all jumped into the top 200 while 12 of our draftees this season check in the top 500, including three in the top 75. The most interesting prospect to keep an eye on, however, may be Ira Hawker, an outfielder turned pitcher who sits inside the top 300. Cleveland took him in the 16th Round in 1937, I picked him up last season, but he only appeared in two games. This year he was used mainly out of the pen, but I'm ready to start giving him starts on a regular basis. His 4.94 ERA (125 ERA+) and 1.72 WHIP don't look all that exciting, but the UMVA had crazy inflated offensive numbers, and he was well above average on the mound.

The system is very deep and balanced, and we don't really have any weaknesses position wise. In our top 20, we can fill a starting lineup and ten man pitching staff. We have a top line catcher, five quality infielders, and four reliable outfielders. Add in Goff and Pomales who can play first and the outfield, and you can almost staff an entire roster without having 7 first basemen or 6 right fielders. Add in the fact that they are all in the top 250, and you have to imagine we'll be able to keep enough talent to replace any eventual big league need. The biggest thing might be how versatile our position players are, and we only have six non-catchers in the league top 500 (24 total, 26 if you count Goff and Pomales) who cannot play three or more positions. It does make things difficult for dealing with the 40-man roster and Rule-5 draft in the coming years, but at least from an organizational standpoint, the Cougars are very healthy. The only weakness is my knack for trading quality pitching prospects, as I have to watch a multitude of Cougar farmhands have success in the majors. Dean Astle, Tom Barrell, Mike Murphy, Bill Ross, Ben Turner, and Charlie Wheeler have all established themselves in the big leagues, and Dan Everett is off to the right start. Karl Wallace and Stumpy Beaman have looked good at times too, and I'm sure there are other guys I'm forgetting about. Sure Del Thomas was lit up in his first taste of the big leagues, but him and Danny Hern are both top 100 prospects and look like quality future big league arms.

Despite all of that, the future does look bright for the Cougars. I really thought the 1930s would be our decades, especially after it started, but the 30s have come and gone and we added just one title and two pennants to the historic franchise now tied with the Stars for most pennants won. The far too often mentioned Tommy Wilcox injury really put a dent in our plans, but I really thought 1939 was our year. Almost everything seemed to fall into place, a tight CA, a collapse of Brooklyn, and finishing top two in runs scored and allowed, but we could not capitalize when it mattered most. Lucky for us, we should only get better next season, and unless a crazy offseason transpires, I like our chances to start the 40s on the right foot!