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Jiggs McGee · 11-22-2021, 01:23 AM

OCTOBER 23, 1939

COVER STORY

JUST HOW LIKELY ARE THOSE TOP-25 PITCHERS TO PAN OUT

Most are anticipating another busy off-season of trade news so the TWIFB cover story this week takes a look at the value of top young pitching prospects. Most FABL General Managers hold on to top twenty five prospects like they are glued to their hands, and it is even more so when it comes to pitchers. Time and again GM's are very cautious parting with those future gems, even when doing so might net a player that could propel the team to a title. Maybe that is changing as the New York Stars had no issue selling off a pair of top fifty pitching prospects last winter including one, Johnnie Jones, who was in the top twenty. That deal netted Washington Moxie Pidgeon, Robert Curry and Mel Hancock Jr. - three veterans who helped lead the Stars to a World Championship. Detroit has also recently moved some top pitching prospects for veterans and it nearly resulted in a pennant for the Dynamos. However, for the most part young pitchers seem to remain almost untouchable commodities. But should they be that way? Yes, sometimes your young stud turns out to be a Lefty Allen or Tom Barrell but as you will discover from our deep dive in to pitching prospects that player can just as easily become George Gilliard, Johnny Jacob or Art Keeter.

Projecting success for young pitchers is probably the single most difficult part of a Scouting Director or General Manager's job in FABL. Teenage arms are very unpredictable and often college pitchers are not much easier to gauge and then you need to factor in the potential impact that injuries can have and it makes finding the next Double Al or Rabbit Day extremely difficult in the draft. But does it get any easier as those young pitchers start to grow and work their way through the minor league systems? TWIFB decided to take a look at five years worth of pitchers ranked in the top 25 on the annual end of season OSA Top Prospect list to try and determine the answer to just that question. Admittedly it is a small sample but what we found out seems to indicate the chances of a top twenty five prospect having an elite level career are not even 50/50.

Between 1930-1934 there were 26 pitchers who appeared on at least one end of season top 25 prospect list. We would like to have looked further back to get more of a full career to work with but that data does not exist so we are forced to settle for 1930-34 which means the guys in those top 25 groups presently range in age from as old as 32 to as young as 25. So yes, things can change but looking at the careers of those 26 young men right now in the minds of the TWIFB staff 13 of them, or a full 50 percent are busts. Now when we say busts we don't mean guys who never made the big leagues - they all did to at least some degree - but when we are looking at a pitcher OSA says is among the top half dozen minor league arms in the game at any given point we expect that pitcher to be at least a solid mid-rotation guy.

We found that 4 of the 26 would meet that standard and be considered a decent mid-level big league pitcher which means only 9 of the 26 players OSA raved about during that stretch actually developed, or are developing into what we consider elite pitchers, guys to front a rotation for a number of seasons or at least be a solid number two starter.

Here is our breakdown
ELITE: David Abalo, Lefty Allen, Tom Barrell, Frank Crawford, Joe Hancock, Dick Higgins, Buddy Long, Al Miller, Jake Smith

MID-LEVEL: Chuck Cole, John Edwards, Jack Elder, George Thomas

BUSTS:Bill Anderson, Harry Carter, Pinky Conlan, George Gilliard, Johnny Jacob, Curly Jones, Art Keeter, Dixie Lee, Chuck Murphy, Rusty Petrick, Roy Price, Dutch Sheldon, Gene White.

Some might disagree with our categorizing of a player or two but our reasoning is explained below. The bottom line is it does not seem those top 25 arms are anywhere close to being guaranteed top half of the rotation guys for an organization down the road. And the numbers could have been worse. If we did not include the 1934 season we would have lost a number of elite players from our list as Joe Hancock, Dick Higgins and Al Miller all emerged from the December 1933 draft, which might just have been the most talented collection of pitchers ever to grace a single draft class.

Here are our thoughts on each of the 26 players who comprised the Top 25 Lists between 1930-34 as well as a complete list of all pitchers ranked in the year end Top Twenty-Five by OSA between 1930-1938.

ELITE TOP OF THE ROTATION ARMS

DAVID ABALO : 1933 #10: Abalo's story is unique. Born in Venezuela, he was originally signed to a contract with Oklahoma City of the Lone Star Association as he never played American high school or college ball. St Louis picked him up in the minor league trade phase in Deceember of 1932 and he was immediately placed on OSA's top prospect list. By 1934 he was in the big leagues as a 20 year old and has been very consistent at the top of the Pioneers rotation ever since, posting an 81-54 record and a sparkling 118 ERA+ oveer the past 6 seasons.

LEFTY ALLEN : 1932 #2, 1933 #2: Was also ranked #1 by OSA at the end of the 1935 season. Ignoring the recently completed WCS, Allen has been one of the best pitchers in baseball the past three seasons and is 70-38 over that span. He is 88-51 with a 133 career ERA+ and hard to believe he is still just 25 years old. Clearly a player worth the hype of a top prospect.

TOM BARRELL 1930 #19: Perhaps showing signs of slowing now as he approaches his 32nd birthday and has dealt with injuries two of the past three seasons but for a stretch Barrell was the best pitcher in the game, winning 3 consecutive Allan Awards including in 1934 when as a 26 year old he went 29-3 with a .296 ERA. Was just 7-6 last season and missed half the year with shoulder troubles but Barrell is 127-65 with a career 121 ERA+ who led his team to three pennants.

FRANK CRAWFORD 1930 #16, 1931 #11: Clearly a pitcher worth the high praise from OSA as Crawford, originally a 10th overall draft pick by the Keystones has evolved into an Allen Award contender in Detroit. He went 25-6 with the lowest ERA in the Fed this season and is 45-16 over two seasons with the Dynamos, reminding us of the impact Rabbit Day had on the Chiefs when he was first acquired. Crawford is 31 years old and boasts a 115-79 career record with a 113 ERA+ and judging by the past couple of seasons the two-time All-Star seems to be just hitting his peak.

JOE HANCOCK: 1934 #11, 1935 #4: Taken first overall in the pitching deep 1933 draft that also gave us Dick Higgins, Al Miller, John Edwards, Earle Robinson, Bob Cummings, Nate Spear and Rusty Petrick in the top ten. Hancock had back to back twenty win seasons before slipping to 15-13 this year. Already a two-time all-star, he was second in Allen balloting last year and seems destined to win at least one in his career. Turns 27 next month and is already 72-50 for his career with a 126 ERA+

DICK HIGGINS: 1934 #6, 1935 #5: Second overall pick in the 1933 class that was loaded with high profile pitchers. The former Dickson Maroons star was in Boston as a 22 year old on opening day 1935 and has been outstanding ever since. He was slowed somewhat by a pair of elbow injuries but seems to have recovered unscathed after going 17-16 this season and leading the Fed in games started. This was his lowest ERA+ score at 106 in 1939 but the hopes are that is just a deviation and not a trend. He is 55-47 with a 118 ERA+ and Higgins will be 27 when next season begins.

BUDDY LONG: 1934 #25, 1936 #25: As you read further down you will see we were fairly hard in calling some guys busts so partly in order to not be called "the Russian Judge" we are going to give Long, based on his two years in St Louis, the benefit of the doubt and place him in the top of the rotation category right now, but he could drop to just a mid-level arm as the years progress. He has given us no reason to doubt he belongs in this top group with a 14-7, 3.99 rookie season in 1938 followed by an even more impressive 19-13, 3.34 campaign last year. Not bad for a player who was originally drafted out of high school in the 7th round in 1932 and only 'snuck in' to the bottom of the top 25. Even a shoulder injury that cost him the tail end of the 1938 season does not seem to have derailed Long, who just turned 25 and is 33-20 with a 121 ERA+ for his two seasons with the Pioneers. He and Jake Smith, who you will read about shortly, certainly help soften the blow of seeing all the Fred McCormick accomplishments in Toronto for St Louis fans as both joined the Pioneers in that deal.

AL MILLER: 1934 #9: The California Kid was picked two spots after Higgins in 1933, but unlike the Boston pick Miller was a high school selection. He made his big league debut with one appearance at the end of the 1935 season and actually lasted just an inning because of a sore wrist. 1936 was a dream year for Miller and the Chicago Chiefs, one which saw him post a 21-8 record with a 2.87 era and help the Chiefs win the first of two World Championship Series in a 3 year span. His numbers dropped off a bit each of the next three years but his rookie season would be extremely difficult for anyone to surpass. Miller did have a losing year this season but it was a rough one for the entire Chiefs team and he is 65-45 with a 127 ERA+ for his young career (he just turned 24 last month).

JAKE SMITH: 1932 #24: A 13th round pick out of St Patrick's, Smith spent just the one season in the top 25 and was in the mid-thirties the following season before dropping off the list as he got playing time with the Toronto Wolves. Was part of the Fred McCormick trade and has really blossomed in St Louis, winning 20 games in 1938 and going 12-8 this past season. He is 30 and perhaps it is a stretch ranking him with Allen, Barrell and Crawford (and he clearly is a step down from these guys) but he is also on the career path to be much better than guys like Cole or Thomas. 75-71 with a 109 ERA+ but trending up based on his past two seasons.

MID LEVEL GUYS

CHUCK COLE 1930, 1931 & 1932 ranked 7th each year: Cole is one of those guys I would put squarely in the middle. Never quite became a top starter although he did lead the CA in wins with 21 for Toronto in 1926 and was 18-10 the previous year but has also had an ERA+ of under 100 4 of his 7 big league seasons. Now with the Stars and was 7-9 as a back of their rotation guy. He will turn 30 before the 1940 season begins and is 82-90 for his career and about league average with a 103 career ERA+.

JOHN EDWARDS: 1934 #14, 1935 #9, 1936 #7: We are going to give Edwards the benefit of the doubt right now and list him as a mid-level guy but there is a feeling he might be another one of the those Baltimore pitchers who is considered a bust (see Pinky Conlan and Rusty Petrick), at least by top 25 prospect standards. Part of the 1933 draft class and one of three pitchers to go high in the draft that year from feeder league Hartford High School (Al Miller and Pepper Tuttle were the others). Edwards made his debut in Baltimore as a 20 year old and spent all of the following season (1937) in their rotation but struggled going 11-19 with a 4.42 era. Baltimore traded him to Boston and he has been a .500 pitcher for the Minutemen and threw 4 shutouts in 1938. He was Boston's #5 starter this past year so did not see a lot of action and is 36-44 with a 101 ERA+ for his career. OSA feels his future lies as a back-end of the rotation starter but you would hope for more than that from a former top 10 prospect.

JACK ELDER: 1932 #8: A fifth round pick way back in 1928 out of high school, Elder suddenly jumped into the top 100 all the way up to 8th in 1932. By 1933 he was a big leaguer, going 13-13 for the Gothams but spent most of 1934 back in the minors. He had a strong 1935 season in New York but was dealt to Washington as part of the purge of '36 by the Gothams. He did not show a lot in Washington but spent most of his time in the pen until he was inserted into the rotation this year and had a breakout season, going 20-20 with a 3.63 era. He is about to turn 29 and could build on this season but other Washington pitchers (see Bill Anderson as the best example) have been one-hit wonders and until Elder shows his 1939 campaign is not a fluke he is going sit firmly in the mid-level category. I expect Elder to continue to be a decent pitcher for the next few seasons but there is something about pitchers not being able to string two good years together in Washington so he could perhaps drop off to bust status similar to Anderson as well. 65-73 for his career with a 105 ERA+

GEORGE THOMAS 1930 #9, 1931 #8: Similar results to Chuck Cole but in Thomas' case injuries might have played a role. He was 7-12 for the Chiefs this season as a 29 year old after spending the 8 years of his career in Montreal. Thomas is 87-96 overall with a 98 ERA+ for his career.

BUSTS

BILL ANDERSON 1930 #22, 1931 #24: Anderson had that one special year when he was dealt from Toronto to Washington and won 22 games for the Eagles. It was the only full season of his career when he was a better than average pitcher if you go by ERA+, although he did score higher in 1933 as a 24 year old but only pitched half the season due to injury. He has been terribly inconsistent and just plain awful at times in Washington with an 84-101 career record and a 95 ERA+. Perhaps he rebounds enough to be considered a mid-level guy at some point but OSA does not see it, calling Anderson, who will be 31 on opening day next season, an emergency starter at best.

HARRY CARTER: 1932 #19: A 15th round pick out of high school so not a lot was expected of Carter initially but he did spend most of his minor league seasons ranked in the top 100. Carter put up some pretty decent numbers in the minors and eventually made his FABL debut with the New York Stars in 1934. His career was up and down with a decent showing as a rookie and not a bad year two seasons later but in between he had his struggles. As the Stars improved there was no room for Cater so he spent last season in AAA and with a 38-44 career record and a 91 ERA+ his baseball future might be just as a minor leaguer.

PINKY CONLAN 1930 #12, 1931 #10: Perhaps it is because he was stuck in Baltimore but the now 30 year old Conlan appears to be on the downside of a career that never quite lived up to expectations. His best season was 1937 when he went 9-8 with a 2.95 era before an shoulder injury cost him the final two months of the season. His career record is 42-71 with a 92 ERA+.

GEORGE GILLIARD: 1933 #9: Selected 5th overall out of Henry Hudson College by the Washington Eagles in 1932 after leading the Explorers to an AIAA World Championship Series title and teamed with Curly Jones and Joe Hancock. Unfortunately for the Eagles Gilliard turned out much more like Jones than Hancock, pitching just 10 big league games and is now with independent Portland of the Great Western League. Injuries like take much of the blame for his failures as Gilliard had far more than his share of them.

JOHNNY JACOB 1930 8th, 1931 9th: Jacob was also the 10th ranked prospect in 1929 but went just 20-17 for his FABL career before injuries ended it at age 25. Probably more fair to call him a victim of bad luck rather than a bust as he was showing nice progress for Brooklyn before suffering a torn UCL twice in less than 24 months.

CURLY JONES: 1933 #4, 1934 #4: While he has stuck around the big leagues for the past six seasons it is hard not to think of the word 'bust' when you hear the name Curly Jones. A first overall pick with more hype than anyone not named Barrell, Jones was a polarizing figure right from the start with his pseudo-retirement and later his bouts with wildness. He is now back for his second go around in Brooklyn with stops also in Detroit and originally with the Gothams, but 'Wild Willie" is just 34-32 with a 101 ERA+. Clearly average numbers but Curly Jones was supposed to be so much more than an average pitcher.

ART KEETER: 1932 #10: Originally a second round pick of Boston's out of high school in 1927 Keeter did not crack the top 100 until he burst on to the list in 1932. By the middle of the 1933 season he was a big league starter at the age of 24. Keeter spent 1935 in the minors and missed substantial time that year with a shoulder injury. Back in Boston for 1936, Keeter was a league average pitcher that season and perhaps slightly above average when he went 16-13 for the Minutemen in 1937. 1938 was a bad year for him and he was not much better this season prompting Boston to release him in August and he caught on with Detroit, signing a minor league deal. Keeter had a couple of decent seasons after his major injury so it's hard to blame injury for his failures, but he was just 45-58 with a 96 ERA+ in 164 games with Boston. He will be turning 31 before next season starts and it is unlikely he gets a big league opportunity again with the Dynamos so this might just be the end of Art Keeter's FABL career.

DIXIE LEE: 1932 #9, 1933 #14, 1934 #16: Lee actually spent 4 seasons in the top 25 as he was ranked 16th again in 1935. Made his big league debut with St Louis in 1936 but was a dismal 3-12 with a 5.25 era. He did improve the next two seasons including a very strong 15-11 3.59 showing in 1938 but regressed terribly this past year with a 3-11 campaign and an 80 ERA+ that saw he relegated to the pen. He is still young, just 26, so there may be hope but it is looking more and more like Lee will never reach the potential teams saw when he was a first round pick in 1931. Career record of 37-49 with a 101 ERA+.

CHUCK MURPHY: 1931 #18, 1932 #15, 1933 #22: Spent three years in the top 25 as scouts waited for the former 1930 first round pick out of Ellery College to reach his potential. We are still waiting although he did have a couple of decent seasons and went 13-8 with a 4.70 era for the Sailors this past year. Maybe we are overly harsh in not ranking him as a mid-level guy but the 30 year old is just 48-54 for his career and his on to his 5th organization. Perhaps he has some decent seasons left and eventually elevates his legacy but right now we have to call him a disappointment.

RUSTY PETRICK: 1934 #24, 1935 #11, 1936 #24: Maybe the weight of being known as the pitcher who was traded to Baltimore for Rabbit Day is too much for Petrick to handle. The former Gothams first round pick still has plenty of time to pull himself out of the bust category as he is just about to turn 24 and already has 3 years of big league action under his belt. Petrick is 27-49 with an 88 ERA+ for those three seasons and when you think about him, John Edwards and Pinky Conlan you have to wonder if something in the Baltimore development system is broken - or perhaps the losing atmosphere is the reason. Either way the Cannons have drafted some seemingly very good pitchers who do not appear to be turning out that way. One has to hope Rufus Barrell and Vic Carroll, both more recent additions to the top ten prospect list, do not also suffer the same fate.

ROY PRICE: 1933 #19: A former Boston first round pick out of Bayou State. He missed most of the 1935 season with a back injury so perhaps that impacted his development but he never made the Minutemen before being dealt to the Eagles organization for a draft pick in 1935. In 1936 he did spend some time on the outskirts of the top 25 prospects and made his big league debut that season, posting a 3-8 record with a 6.48 era in 15 starts for Washington. That will likely be the end of his big league career as after spending the next two seasons in AAA the Eagles released him and Price is now pittching for independent Syracuse.

DUTCH SHELDON: 1930 #15, 1931 #19: Sheldon just might be a late bloomer and elevate himself out of the bust class. He did go 10-17 with a 4.37 era in his first season as a big league starter at age 30 with the Philadelphia Sailors. Prior to that he spent a few seasons in the St Louis bullpen but his stock had dropped significantly as the Pioneers let him go for a marginal low level prospect. Sheldon has posted some decent numbers out of the St Louis pen so perhaps it is also a case of not being given the opportunity to show what he can do. He is 19-32 with 11 saves and a decent 111 ERA+ for his career so even though OSA might have thought he had a much higher ceiling, Sheldon has had a decent career when you consider he was originally at 15th round draft pick.

GENE WHITE: 1933 #15, 1934 #24: He was one of the few players in the top 25 for 5 seasons as White was ranked 18th at the end of 1935, 13th in 1936 and 17th in 1937. He is still just 25 years old so quite possibly too early to call him a bust but White has not shown a lot, going 16-22 with an 81 ERA+ in two plus seasons with the Keystones. OSA is no where near as high on White now as compared to early seasons so at this time he goes in the bust category but with a note he may have the potential to climb out of it.

Here is the complete list of pitchers who were ranked in the top 25 prospects on the year end OSA rankings. It includes their position on the ranking list, the team they were with at the time, their age at the time and the level they finished that season at.

STARS ADD DIXIE LEE

Almost before the World Championship Series parade was concluded the New York Stars announced a trade. The Stars dealt a couple more prospects away in order to add another pitcher in Dixie Lee. Lee, who spent a number of seasons as a top-25 prospect but has not lived up to expectations in St Louis, is coming off of a terrible 3-11 season for the Pioneers. The Stars hope he can regain the form he displayed two years ago when he went 15-11 with a 3.59 era for the St Louis but TWIFB has labelled him as a 'bust' at least as far as living up to the billing he had as a minor league. Lee is young, just 26 years old, so the Stars clearly hope he can turn things around.

Going to the Pioneers are Ira Armstrong, a 20 year old second baseman who finished this past season in Class A and is ranked #95 on the current OSA prospect list and 19 year old outfielder Cal Page, who is ranked 98th by OSA. The scouting service is very high on Armstrong, but he struggled at Class B this season after being part of the old lottery system and joining the Stars in 1937. Page was a 7th round pick this past June and hit .234 in 75 games at Class C.

JIGGS MCGEE'S TAKE: It was clear the Pioneers had seen enough of Lee that they decided a change of scenery was for the best. Armstrong looks like a very good prospect and makes an improving minor league system in St Louis even deeper. The move also seems to make sense for the Stars as they hope Lee might regain his form and while they did part with a pair of top-100 prospects, neither really had a future in New York as Armstrong's path is likely blocked by 22 year old Henry Bush, who split last season between A and AA and the outfield in New York is far too crowded for Page to make a dent in the roster.

QUICK HITS

Pittsburgh is licking it's wounds after the Miners pitching was beaten up last week. The Miners are said to be further looking to mortgage the future to extend the current window as a contender. The primary things they are looking for are solid mid-rotation piece and a solid right handed middle infield bat. Picks and prospects are all on the table as well as the Miners are said to be willing to part with a key offensive piece for the right pitcher. Joe Owens, Lew Seals, Les Tucker and Pablo Reyes are the names being bandied around.
Several minor deals as the off-season officially begins following the New York Stars shocking World Championship Series upset of the Pittsburgh Miners. Trying to clear space on the 40-man roster prompted the Chicago Cougars to make a pair of deals. Chicago moved AAA outfielder Larry Robison to Washington for aa fifth round pick. The 25 year old hit .328 with 7 homers at AAA Milwaukee and made his big league debut as a pinch-hitter in the final week of the season, walking in his only plate appearance. The Cougars also sent AAA pitcher Jim Miller and AA lefthander Doc Smith to the New York Gothams in exchange for 4th and 8th round draft picks. The 25 year old Miller was 4-5 with a 4.78 era at AAA Milwaukee. Smith, also 25 and a former second round pick, was 11-4 with a 3.60 era at AA this past season.
Neither of the two arms the Gothams acquired from the Cougars will fill the club's desire to add some good major league pitching. New York is willing to part with it's draft picks, including the first overall selection, in the right deal but the club is adamant none of their Million Dollar infield, catcher Pete Casstevens or pitching prospects Ed Bowman, Johnnie Walker or Bunny Edwards will be moved.

The Week That Was
Current events from the week ending 10/22/1939

Multiple ships and many planes are casualties on both sides after Hitler orders an intense "all Oceans" offensive. Much of the heavy fighting continues along the coast of Scotland and in the North Sea.
Berlin claims all French troops have been driven back out of German territory and also made note the rather than continue the offensive, Nazi troops stopped advancing as they reached the French frontier. Britain rushes additional troops to the front to aid the French.
Hitler officially announces the annexing of Polish areas Germany had lost in 1918.
Prime Minister Chamberlain announced a mutual aid treaty has been reached with Turkey. Ankara pledges to agree to assist the Allied Powers if they go to war in defense of Rumania or Greece. This results in the suspension of negotiations Turkey had been conducting for a similar treaty with Russia. While not going so far as to agree it was a diplomatic defeat for Germany, Berlin did call Turkey's decision a "mistake" in aiding the desire of Britain and France to spread the war.
President Roosevelt fears the United States nay see as many as 20 million refugees coming to the country as the flee the war in Europe.
Some US Senators fear FDR is on the verge of aiding England and France in an "attempt to stop the dictators by force."

11-22-2021, 01:23 AM	#292
Jiggs McGee All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2019 Posts: 677	1939 Off-season OCTOBER 23, 1939 COVER STORY JUST HOW LIKELY ARE THOSE TOP-25 PITCHERS TO PAN OUT Most are anticipating another busy off-season of trade news so the TWIFB cover story this week takes a look at the value of top young pitching prospects. Most FABL General Managers hold on to top twenty five prospects like they are glued to their hands, and it is even more so when it comes to pitchers. Time and again GM's are very cautious parting with those future gems, even when doing so might net a player that could propel the team to a title. Maybe that is changing as the New York Stars had no issue selling off a pair of top fifty pitching prospects last winter including one, Johnnie Jones, who was in the top twenty. That deal netted Washington Moxie Pidgeon, Robert Curry and Mel Hancock Jr. - three veterans who helped lead the Stars to a World Championship. Detroit has also recently moved some top pitching prospects for veterans and it nearly resulted in a pennant for the Dynamos. However, for the most part young pitchers seem to remain almost untouchable commodities. But should they be that way? Yes, sometimes your young stud turns out to be a Lefty Allen or Tom Barrell but as you will discover from our deep dive in to pitching prospects that player can just as easily become George Gilliard, Johnny Jacob or Art Keeter. Projecting success for young pitchers is probably the single most difficult part of a Scouting Director or General Manager's job in FABL. Teenage arms are very unpredictable and often college pitchers are not much easier to gauge and then you need to factor in the potential impact that injuries can have and it makes finding the next Double Al or Rabbit Day extremely difficult in the draft. But does it get any easier as those young pitchers start to grow and work their way through the minor league systems? TWIFB decided to take a look at five years worth of pitchers ranked in the top 25 on the annual end of season OSA Top Prospect list to try and determine the answer to just that question. Admittedly it is a small sample but what we found out seems to indicate the chances of a top twenty five prospect having an elite level career are not even 50/50. Between 1930-1934 there were 26 pitchers who appeared on at least one end of season top 25 prospect list. We would like to have looked further back to get more of a full career to work with but that data does not exist so we are forced to settle for 1930-34 which means the guys in those top 25 groups presently range in age from as old as 32 to as young as 25. So yes, things can change but looking at the careers of those 26 young men right now in the minds of the TWIFB staff 13 of them, or a full 50 percent are busts. Now when we say busts we don't mean guys who never made the big leagues - they all did to at least some degree - but when we are looking at a pitcher OSA says is among the top half dozen minor league arms in the game at any given point we expect that pitcher to be at least a solid mid-rotation guy. We found that 4 of the 26 would meet that standard and be considered a decent mid-level big league pitcher which means only 9 of the 26 players OSA raved about during that stretch actually developed, or are developing into what we consider elite pitchers, guys to front a rotation for a number of seasons or at least be a solid number two starter. Here is our breakdown ELITE: David Abalo, Lefty Allen, Tom Barrell, Frank Crawford, Joe Hancock, Dick Higgins, Buddy Long, Al Miller, Jake Smith MID-LEVEL: Chuck Cole, John Edwards, Jack Elder, George Thomas BUSTS:Bill Anderson, Harry Carter, Pinky Conlan, George Gilliard, Johnny Jacob, Curly Jones, Art Keeter, Dixie Lee, Chuck Murphy, Rusty Petrick, Roy Price, Dutch Sheldon, Gene White. Some might disagree with our categorizing of a player or two but our reasoning is explained below. The bottom line is it does not seem those top 25 arms are anywhere close to being guaranteed top half of the rotation guys for an organization down the road. And the numbers could have been worse. If we did not include the 1934 season we would have lost a number of elite players from our list as Joe Hancock, Dick Higgins and Al Miller all emerged from the December 1933 draft, which might just have been the most talented collection of pitchers ever to grace a single draft class. Here are our thoughts on each of the 26 players who comprised the Top 25 Lists between 1930-34 as well as a complete list of all pitchers ranked in the year end Top Twenty-Five by OSA between 1930-1938. ELITE TOP OF THE ROTATION ARMS DAVID ABALO : 1933 #10: Abalo's story is unique. Born in Venezuela, he was originally signed to a contract with Oklahoma City of the Lone Star Association as he never played American high school or college ball. St Louis picked him up in the minor league trade phase in Deceember of 1932 and he was immediately placed on OSA's top prospect list. By 1934 he was in the big leagues as a 20 year old and has been very consistent at the top of the Pioneers rotation ever since, posting an 81-54 record and a sparkling 118 ERA+ oveer the past 6 seasons. LEFTY ALLEN : 1932 #2, 1933 #2: Was also ranked #1 by OSA at the end of the 1935 season. Ignoring the recently completed WCS, Allen has been one of the best pitchers in baseball the past three seasons and is 70-38 over that span. He is 88-51 with a 133 career ERA+ and hard to believe he is still just 25 years old. Clearly a player worth the hype of a top prospect. TOM BARRELL 1930 #19: Perhaps showing signs of slowing now as he approaches his 32nd birthday and has dealt with injuries two of the past three seasons but for a stretch Barrell was the best pitcher in the game, winning 3 consecutive Allan Awards including in 1934 when as a 26 year old he went 29-3 with a .296 ERA. Was just 7-6 last season and missed half the year with shoulder troubles but Barrell is 127-65 with a career 121 ERA+ who led his team to three pennants. FRANK CRAWFORD 1930 #16, 1931 #11: Clearly a pitcher worth the high praise from OSA as Crawford, originally a 10th overall draft pick by the Keystones has evolved into an Allen Award contender in Detroit. He went 25-6 with the lowest ERA in the Fed this season and is 45-16 over two seasons with the Dynamos, reminding us of the impact Rabbit Day had on the Chiefs when he was first acquired. Crawford is 31 years old and boasts a 115-79 career record with a 113 ERA+ and judging by the past couple of seasons the two-time All-Star seems to be just hitting his peak. JOE HANCOCK: 1934 #11, 1935 #4: Taken first overall in the pitching deep 1933 draft that also gave us Dick Higgins, Al Miller, John Edwards, Earle Robinson, Bob Cummings, Nate Spear and Rusty Petrick in the top ten. Hancock had back to back twenty win seasons before slipping to 15-13 this year. Already a two-time all-star, he was second in Allen balloting last year and seems destined to win at least one in his career. Turns 27 next month and is already 72-50 for his career with a 126 ERA+ DICK HIGGINS: 1934 #6, 1935 #5: Second overall pick in the 1933 class that was loaded with high profile pitchers. The former Dickson Maroons star was in Boston as a 22 year old on opening day 1935 and has been outstanding ever since. He was slowed somewhat by a pair of elbow injuries but seems to have recovered unscathed after going 17-16 this season and leading the Fed in games started. This was his lowest ERA+ score at 106 in 1939 but the hopes are that is just a deviation and not a trend. He is 55-47 with a 118 ERA+ and Higgins will be 27 when next season begins. BUDDY LONG: 1934 #25, 1936 #25: As you read further down you will see we were fairly hard in calling some guys busts so partly in order to not be called "the Russian Judge" we are going to give Long, based on his two years in St Louis, the benefit of the doubt and place him in the top of the rotation category right now, but he could drop to just a mid-level arm as the years progress. He has given us no reason to doubt he belongs in this top group with a 14-7, 3.99 rookie season in 1938 followed by an even more impressive 19-13, 3.34 campaign last year. Not bad for a player who was originally drafted out of high school in the 7th round in 1932 and only 'snuck in' to the bottom of the top 25. Even a shoulder injury that cost him the tail end of the 1938 season does not seem to have derailed Long, who just turned 25 and is 33-20 with a 121 ERA+ for his two seasons with the Pioneers. He and Jake Smith, who you will read about shortly, certainly help soften the blow of seeing all the Fred McCormick accomplishments in Toronto for St Louis fans as both joined the Pioneers in that deal. AL MILLER: 1934 #9: The California Kid was picked two spots after Higgins in 1933, but unlike the Boston pick Miller was a high school selection. He made his big league debut with one appearance at the end of the 1935 season and actually lasted just an inning because of a sore wrist. 1936 was a dream year for Miller and the Chicago Chiefs, one which saw him post a 21-8 record with a 2.87 era and help the Chiefs win the first of two World Championship Series in a 3 year span. His numbers dropped off a bit each of the next three years but his rookie season would be extremely difficult for anyone to surpass. Miller did have a losing year this season but it was a rough one for the entire Chiefs team and he is 65-45 with a 127 ERA+ for his young career (he just turned 24 last month). JAKE SMITH: 1932 #24: A 13th round pick out of St Patrick's, Smith spent just the one season in the top 25 and was in the mid-thirties the following season before dropping off the list as he got playing time with the Toronto Wolves. Was part of the Fred McCormick trade and has really blossomed in St Louis, winning 20 games in 1938 and going 12-8 this past season. He is 30 and perhaps it is a stretch ranking him with Allen, Barrell and Crawford (and he clearly is a step down from these guys) but he is also on the career path to be much better than guys like Cole or Thomas. 75-71 with a 109 ERA+ but trending up based on his past two seasons. MID LEVEL GUYS CHUCK COLE 1930, 1931 & 1932 ranked 7th each year: Cole is one of those guys I would put squarely in the middle. Never quite became a top starter although he did lead the CA in wins with 21 for Toronto in 1926 and was 18-10 the previous year but has also had an ERA+ of under 100 4 of his 7 big league seasons. Now with the Stars and was 7-9 as a back of their rotation guy. He will turn 30 before the 1940 season begins and is 82-90 for his career and about league average with a 103 career ERA+. JOHN EDWARDS: 1934 #14, 1935 #9, 1936 #7: We are going to give Edwards the benefit of the doubt right now and list him as a mid-level guy but there is a feeling he might be another one of the those Baltimore pitchers who is considered a bust (see Pinky Conlan and Rusty Petrick), at least by top 25 prospect standards. Part of the 1933 draft class and one of three pitchers to go high in the draft that year from feeder league Hartford High School (Al Miller and Pepper Tuttle were the others). Edwards made his debut in Baltimore as a 20 year old and spent all of the following season (1937) in their rotation but struggled going 11-19 with a 4.42 era. Baltimore traded him to Boston and he has been a .500 pitcher for the Minutemen and threw 4 shutouts in 1938. He was Boston's #5 starter this past year so did not see a lot of action and is 36-44 with a 101 ERA+ for his career. OSA feels his future lies as a back-end of the rotation starter but you would hope for more than that from a former top 10 prospect. JACK ELDER: 1932 #8: A fifth round pick way back in 1928 out of high school, Elder suddenly jumped into the top 100 all the way up to 8th in 1932. By 1933 he was a big leaguer, going 13-13 for the Gothams but spent most of 1934 back in the minors. He had a strong 1935 season in New York but was dealt to Washington as part of the purge of '36 by the Gothams. He did not show a lot in Washington but spent most of his time in the pen until he was inserted into the rotation this year and had a breakout season, going 20-20 with a 3.63 era. He is about to turn 29 and could build on this season but other Washington pitchers (see Bill Anderson as the best example) have been one-hit wonders and until Elder shows his 1939 campaign is not a fluke he is going sit firmly in the mid-level category. I expect Elder to continue to be a decent pitcher for the next few seasons but there is something about pitchers not being able to string two good years together in Washington so he could perhaps drop off to bust status similar to Anderson as well. 65-73 for his career with a 105 ERA+ GEORGE THOMAS 1930 #9, 1931 #8: Similar results to Chuck Cole but in Thomas' case injuries might have played a role. He was 7-12 for the Chiefs this season as a 29 year old after spending the 8 years of his career in Montreal. Thomas is 87-96 overall with a 98 ERA+ for his career. BUSTS BILL ANDERSON 1930 #22, 1931 #24: Anderson had that one special year when he was dealt from Toronto to Washington and won 22 games for the Eagles. It was the only full season of his career when he was a better than average pitcher if you go by ERA+, although he did score higher in 1933 as a 24 year old but only pitched half the season due to injury. He has been terribly inconsistent and just plain awful at times in Washington with an 84-101 career record and a 95 ERA+. Perhaps he rebounds enough to be considered a mid-level guy at some point but OSA does not see it, calling Anderson, who will be 31 on opening day next season, an emergency starter at best. HARRY CARTER: 1932 #19: A 15th round pick out of high school so not a lot was expected of Carter initially but he did spend most of his minor league seasons ranked in the top 100. Carter put up some pretty decent numbers in the minors and eventually made his FABL debut with the New York Stars in 1934. His career was up and down with a decent showing as a rookie and not a bad year two seasons later but in between he had his struggles. As the Stars improved there was no room for Cater so he spent last season in AAA and with a 38-44 career record and a 91 ERA+ his baseball future might be just as a minor leaguer. PINKY CONLAN 1930 #12, 1931 #10: Perhaps it is because he was stuck in Baltimore but the now 30 year old Conlan appears to be on the downside of a career that never quite lived up to expectations. His best season was 1937 when he went 9-8 with a 2.95 era before an shoulder injury cost him the final two months of the season. His career record is 42-71 with a 92 ERA+. GEORGE GILLIARD: 1933 #9: Selected 5th overall out of Henry Hudson College by the Washington Eagles in 1932 after leading the Explorers to an AIAA World Championship Series title and teamed with Curly Jones and Joe Hancock. Unfortunately for the Eagles Gilliard turned out much more like Jones than Hancock, pitching just 10 big league games and is now with independent Portland of the Great Western League. Injuries like take much of the blame for his failures as Gilliard had far more than his share of them. JOHNNY JACOB 1930 8th, 1931 9th: Jacob was also the 10th ranked prospect in 1929 but went just 20-17 for his FABL career before injuries ended it at age 25. Probably more fair to call him a victim of bad luck rather than a bust as he was showing nice progress for Brooklyn before suffering a torn UCL twice in less than 24 months. CURLY JONES: 1933 #4, 1934 #4: While he has stuck around the big leagues for the past six seasons it is hard not to think of the word 'bust' when you hear the name Curly Jones. A first overall pick with more hype than anyone not named Barrell, Jones was a polarizing figure right from the start with his pseudo-retirement and later his bouts with wildness. He is now back for his second go around in Brooklyn with stops also in Detroit and originally with the Gothams, but 'Wild Willie" is just 34-32 with a 101 ERA+. Clearly average numbers but Curly Jones was supposed to be so much more than an average pitcher. ART KEETER: 1932 #10: Originally a second round pick of Boston's out of high school in 1927 Keeter did not crack the top 100 until he burst on to the list in 1932. By the middle of the 1933 season he was a big league starter at the age of 24. Keeter spent 1935 in the minors and missed substantial time that year with a shoulder injury. Back in Boston for 1936, Keeter was a league average pitcher that season and perhaps slightly above average when he went 16-13 for the Minutemen in 1937. 1938 was a bad year for him and he was not much better this season prompting Boston to release him in August and he caught on with Detroit, signing a minor league deal. Keeter had a couple of decent seasons after his major injury so it's hard to blame injury for his failures, but he was just 45-58 with a 96 ERA+ in 164 games with Boston. He will be turning 31 before next season starts and it is unlikely he gets a big league opportunity again with the Dynamos so this might just be the end of Art Keeter's FABL career. DIXIE LEE: 1932 #9, 1933 #14, 1934 #16: Lee actually spent 4 seasons in the top 25 as he was ranked 16th again in 1935. Made his big league debut with St Louis in 1936 but was a dismal 3-12 with a 5.25 era. He did improve the next two seasons including a very strong 15-11 3.59 showing in 1938 but regressed terribly this past year with a 3-11 campaign and an 80 ERA+ that saw he relegated to the pen. He is still young, just 26, so there may be hope but it is looking more and more like Lee will never reach the potential teams saw when he was a first round pick in 1931. Career record of 37-49 with a 101 ERA+. CHUCK MURPHY: 1931 #18, 1932 #15, 1933 #22: Spent three years in the top 25 as scouts waited for the former 1930 first round pick out of Ellery College to reach his potential. We are still waiting although he did have a couple of decent seasons and went 13-8 with a 4.70 era for the Sailors this past year. Maybe we are overly harsh in not ranking him as a mid-level guy but the 30 year old is just 48-54 for his career and his on to his 5th organization. Perhaps he has some decent seasons left and eventually elevates his legacy but right now we have to call him a disappointment. RUSTY PETRICK: 1934 #24, 1935 #11, 1936 #24: Maybe the weight of being known as the pitcher who was traded to Baltimore for Rabbit Day is too much for Petrick to handle. The former Gothams first round pick still has plenty of time to pull himself out of the bust category as he is just about to turn 24 and already has 3 years of big league action under his belt. Petrick is 27-49 with an 88 ERA+ for those three seasons and when you think about him, John Edwards and Pinky Conlan you have to wonder if something in the Baltimore development system is broken - or perhaps the losing atmosphere is the reason. Either way the Cannons have drafted some seemingly very good pitchers who do not appear to be turning out that way. One has to hope Rufus Barrell and Vic Carroll, both more recent additions to the top ten prospect list, do not also suffer the same fate. ROY PRICE: 1933 #19: A former Boston first round pick out of Bayou State. He missed most of the 1935 season with a back injury so perhaps that impacted his development but he never made the Minutemen before being dealt to the Eagles organization for a draft pick in 1935. In 1936 he did spend some time on the outskirts of the top 25 prospects and made his big league debut that season, posting a 3-8 record with a 6.48 era in 15 starts for Washington. That will likely be the end of his big league career as after spending the next two seasons in AAA the Eagles released him and Price is now pittching for independent Syracuse. DUTCH SHELDON: 1930 #15, 1931 #19: Sheldon just might be a late bloomer and elevate himself out of the bust class. He did go 10-17 with a 4.37 era in his first season as a big league starter at age 30 with the Philadelphia Sailors. Prior to that he spent a few seasons in the St Louis bullpen but his stock had dropped significantly as the Pioneers let him go for a marginal low level prospect. Sheldon has posted some decent numbers out of the St Louis pen so perhaps it is also a case of not being given the opportunity to show what he can do. He is 19-32 with 11 saves and a decent 111 ERA+ for his career so even though OSA might have thought he had a much higher ceiling, Sheldon has had a decent career when you consider he was originally at 15th round draft pick. GENE WHITE: 1933 #15, 1934 #24: He was one of the few players in the top 25 for 5 seasons as White was ranked 18th at the end of 1935, 13th in 1936 and 17th in 1937. He is still just 25 years old so quite possibly too early to call him a bust but White has not shown a lot, going 16-22 with an 81 ERA+ in two plus seasons with the Keystones. OSA is no where near as high on White now as compared to early seasons so at this time he goes in the bust category but with a note he may have the potential to climb out of it. Here is the complete list of pitchers who were ranked in the top 25 prospects on the year end OSA rankings. It includes their position on the ranking list, the team they were with at the time, their age at the time and the level they finished that season at. STARS ADD DIXIE LEE Almost before the World Championship Series parade was concluded the New York Stars announced a trade. The Stars dealt a couple more prospects away in order to add another pitcher in Dixie Lee. Lee, who spent a number of seasons as a top-25 prospect but has not lived up to expectations in St Louis, is coming off of a terrible 3-11 season for the Pioneers. The Stars hope he can regain the form he displayed two years ago when he went 15-11 with a 3.59 era for the St Louis but TWIFB has labelled him as a 'bust' at least as far as living up to the billing he had as a minor league. Lee is young, just 26 years old, so the Stars clearly hope he can turn things around. Going to the Pioneers are Ira Armstrong, a 20 year old second baseman who finished this past season in Class A and is ranked #95 on the current OSA prospect list and 19 year old outfielder Cal Page, who is ranked 98th by OSA. The scouting service is very high on Armstrong, but he struggled at Class B this season after being part of the old lottery system and joining the Stars in 1937. Page was a 7th round pick this past June and hit .234 in 75 games at Class C. JIGGS MCGEE'S TAKE: It was clear the Pioneers had seen enough of Lee that they decided a change of scenery was for the best. Armstrong looks like a very good prospect and makes an improving minor league system in St Louis even deeper. The move also seems to make sense for the Stars as they hope Lee might regain his form and while they did part with a pair of top-100 prospects, neither really had a future in New York as Armstrong's path is likely blocked by 22 year old Henry Bush, who split last season between A and AA and the outfield in New York is far too crowded for Page to make a dent in the roster. QUICK HITS Pittsburgh is licking it's wounds after the Miners pitching was beaten up last week. The Miners are said to be further looking to mortgage the future to extend the current window as a contender. The primary things they are looking for are solid mid-rotation piece and a solid right handed middle infield bat. Picks and prospects are all on the table as well as the Miners are said to be willing to part with a key offensive piece for the right pitcher. Joe Owens, Lew Seals, Les Tucker and Pablo Reyes are the names being bandied around. Several minor deals as the off-season officially begins following the New York Stars shocking World Championship Series upset of the Pittsburgh Miners. Trying to clear space on the 40-man roster prompted the Chicago Cougars to make a pair of deals. Chicago moved AAA outfielder Larry Robison to Washington for aa fifth round pick. The 25 year old hit .328 with 7 homers at AAA Milwaukee and made his big league debut as a pinch-hitter in the final week of the season, walking in his only plate appearance. The Cougars also sent AAA pitcher Jim Miller and AA lefthander Doc Smith to the New York Gothams in exchange for 4th and 8th round draft picks. The 25 year old Miller was 4-5 with a 4.78 era at AAA Milwaukee. Smith, also 25 and a former second round pick, was 11-4 with a 3.60 era at AA this past season. Neither of the two arms the Gothams acquired from the Cougars will fill the club's desire to add some good major league pitching. New York is willing to part with it's draft picks, including the first overall selection, in the right deal but the club is adamant none of their Million Dollar infield, catcher Pete Casstevens or pitching prospects Ed Bowman, Johnnie Walker or Bunny Edwards will be moved. The Week That Was Current events from the week ending 10/22/1939 Multiple ships and many planes are casualties on both sides after Hitler orders an intense "all Oceans" offensive. Much of the heavy fighting continues along the coast of Scotland and in the North Sea. Berlin claims all French troops have been driven back out of German territory and also made note the rather than continue the offensive, Nazi troops stopped advancing as they reached the French frontier. Britain rushes additional troops to the front to aid the French. Hitler officially announces the annexing of Polish areas Germany had lost in 1918. Prime Minister Chamberlain announced a mutual aid treaty has been reached with Turkey. Ankara pledges to agree to assist the Allied Powers if they go to war in defense of Rumania or Greece. This results in the suspension of negotiations Turkey had been conducting for a similar treaty with Russia. While not going so far as to agree it was a diplomatic defeat for Germany, Berlin did call Turkey's decision a "mistake" in aiding the desire of Britain and France to spread the war. President Roosevelt fears the United States nay see as many as 20 million refugees coming to the country as the flee the war in Europe. Some US Senators fear FDR is on the verge of aiding England and France in an "attempt to stop the dictators by force." __________________ Lead Columnist of The Figment Sporting Journal The Scripture of Sports Last edited by Jiggs McGee; 11-22-2021 at 01:24 AM.