Quote:
Originally Posted by rink23
The reason I put "clutch" in parenthesis in the original post, is due to the discussion of if there really is a thing as a clutch player.
What I meant, is that Shaw through his first four seasons was the player I wanted at the plate in a key situation because of his propensity to come through more often than others.
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Either he came through more often than others because he was just a better hitter than others, or the fact he happened to hit well in key situations was literally just random luck though with no bearing on if he will continue to be that lucky in the future.
Among the 100 worst 'Clutch' hitters in MLB history are: Adrian Beltre, Manny Ramirez, Chipper Jones. David Ortiz? Worse than normal in clutch situations. Derek Jeter? About the same in clutch situations as otherwise. For pitching, Greg Maddux, Nolan Ryan, and Curt Shilling are among the 100 worst 'Clutch' pitchers in MLB history. Mariano Rivera barely escapes the top-100 and is 111th-worst.
Our brains like to add meaning to patterns we see in statistical randomness even when its just, well, random. And then, as is the case with many of the players I listed above, we over-emphasize several good moments to trick our brains into thinking they were good in the clutch when in fact the opposite is true.