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JAF373 · 04-02-2022, 04:30 PM

June 1, 2023

Record: 29-20

We're back. Season started slowly (12-17 through 29 games), but a lineup reshuffling unlocked hidden upside and we've ripped off 17 wins in our last 20. Pitching is a different story, as we lost Clayton Kershaw after three starts and he may not return this season with a rather significant elbow injury. Massive production from Nolan Arenado paired with Nico Hoerner's ascension to stardom - along with contributions from a very balanced lineup - has us cooking offensively. We lead the league in wOBA and extra base hits while striking out at (easily) the lowest rate in the league. With the ball constantly in play, we're putting significant pressure on opposing pitching staffs, and, in the "Three True Outcomes" Era, we're a little different from the crowd.

Lineup Analysis

-A tremendous first two months for Nolan Arenado, who is on pace to shatter his previous highs in WAR. His .451 ISO against LHP is downright inhuman. He's signed through the end of 2024 with a player option in 2025.

-Nico Hoerner "broke out" last season with a 122 wRC+ and 3.6 WAR, but he's ascended to superstardom in 2023 with a walk rate above his strikeout rate. Sliding him from the leadoff spot into the 2-hole in front of Arenado has produced fantastic results, and the team-friendly extension we signed last August (6 years/$44M) looks better with each passing day.

-Orlando Martinez, the 25 year-old OF we acquired from LAA last June in exchange for a broken James Paxton, doesn't fit the mold of a "traditional" clean-up hitter, but he's showing emerging power and near equivalent BB and K rates along with premium defense (65 grade) in left field.

-We acquired JaCoby Jones from Detroit in January (along with Bryan Garcia) from the payroll-strapped Tigers. He's set to become a free agent for the first time after this season and I don't envision him as a long-term fit. He also doesn't mesh well with David Ross' managerial style. That said, we don't have an obvious organizational replacement for him in CF (Luis Barrera is more of a corner guy and Jimmy Herron isn't going to hit enough for an everyday role). For now, he's playing stellar defense and tracking for a 5.0 WAR season, but as always for him, the injury monster is looming at all times.

-With Hoerner dropping to the 2-hole, we entered the season without an obvious fit for the lead-off spot. Josh Van Meter had first crack and did a decent job (96 wRC+ in 100 PAs), but he herniated a disc in his back two weeks ago and will be out until late June. We needed someone to take at-bats at DH against RHP and jumped at the opportunity to acquire Matt Thaiss from the Angels for David Bote. As discussed previously, the prior regime gave Bote a long-term deal, but he's been a major disappointment. He was ripping the cover off the ball at AAA Iowa, but we were able to unload 50% of his deal ($16M total owed through 2025) for Thaiss. The move gave us some desperately needed payroll flexibility (now have $2.3M; previously had just $220K).

With Michael Busch (acquired from LAD in January for Alfonso Rivas) looking MLB-ready and limited to 1B/DH, I don't foresee Thaiss being around past this season. If Busch continues to blossom at AAA, Thaiss could be moved for a prospect. For now, he'll continue batting lead-off against RHP.

-Anthony Rizzo's surface numbers are gruesome, but some of his struggles are attributable to a .147 BABIP through 188 PAs. He's walking at a 15% clip, so positive regression should set in shortly.

-Luis Barrera suffered a nasty ankle sprain mid-April and missed five weeks, opening the door for a few of the younger outfielders. The most recent call-up was Jacob Samford, 25, acquired from the Yankees during the 2021 Deadline purge. He's a muscle hamster, power-hitting corner OF in the mold of Tyler O'Neill (lite version). He posted a nearly .200 ISO last season at AA Tennessee, and was off to a torrid start at AAA Iowa this season (.271 ISO,133 wRC+). We couldn't have asked for a better first two weeks as he popped five homers, including a mammoth 3-run bomb in extra innings to beat the White Sox on the road. He's limited to left field defensively and is allergic to drawing walks, but if he can keep the strikeout rate under 30%, he has a chance to stick long-term. The power (60 grade) is very, very real.

-Amidst all of the promising developments, we had to send down Brennen Davis after 80 difficult PAs. Inexplicably, he showed up at camp a 35 overall after an electric big league debut last summer. He was overmatched in April and we sent him to Iowa for a reset. He's picked up the pace recently, posting a .159 wRC+ and .212 ISO at AAA. We're going to let him stay there until at least the All Star Break, but the current scouting reports are quite troubling. His defense (70 in LF and 50 in CF) make him a viable part-timer, but I'm afraid that the dream of him being an every day outfielder could be finished. Or maybe...my scout is simply off-base with his evaluation. We'll see.

Current Base Lineups

Current Standings

Injured List:

Current Pitching Alignment

04-02-2022, 04:30 PM	#49
JAF373 Minors (Triple A) Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 256	Sizzling Cubs Enter June With Division Lead June 1, 2023 Record: 29-20 We're back. Season started slowly (12-17 through 29 games), but a lineup reshuffling unlocked hidden upside and we've ripped off 17 wins in our last 20. Pitching is a different story, as we lost Clayton Kershaw after three starts and he may not return this season with a rather significant elbow injury. Massive production from Nolan Arenado paired with Nico Hoerner's ascension to stardom - along with contributions from a very balanced lineup - has us cooking offensively. We lead the league in wOBA and extra base hits while striking out at (easily) the lowest rate in the league. With the ball constantly in play, we're putting significant pressure on opposing pitching staffs, and, in the "Three True Outcomes" Era, we're a little different from the crowd. Lineup Analysis -A tremendous first two months for Nolan Arenado, who is on pace to shatter his previous highs in WAR. His .451 ISO against LHP is downright inhuman. He's signed through the end of 2024 with a player option in 2025. -Nico Hoerner "broke out" last season with a 122 wRC+ and 3.6 WAR, but he's ascended to superstardom in 2023 with a walk rate above his strikeout rate. Sliding him from the leadoff spot into the 2-hole in front of Arenado has produced fantastic results, and the team-friendly extension we signed last August (6 years/$44M) looks better with each passing day. -Orlando Martinez, the 25 year-old OF we acquired from LAA last June in exchange for a broken James Paxton, doesn't fit the mold of a "traditional" clean-up hitter, but he's showing emerging power and near equivalent BB and K rates along with premium defense (65 grade) in left field. -We acquired JaCoby Jones from Detroit in January (along with Bryan Garcia) from the payroll-strapped Tigers. He's set to become a free agent for the first time after this season and I don't envision him as a long-term fit. He also doesn't mesh well with David Ross' managerial style. That said, we don't have an obvious organizational replacement for him in CF (Luis Barrera is more of a corner guy and Jimmy Herron isn't going to hit enough for an everyday role). For now, he's playing stellar defense and tracking for a 5.0 WAR season, but as always for him, the injury monster is looming at all times. -With Hoerner dropping to the 2-hole, we entered the season without an obvious fit for the lead-off spot. Josh Van Meter had first crack and did a decent job (96 wRC+ in 100 PAs), but he herniated a disc in his back two weeks ago and will be out until late June. We needed someone to take at-bats at DH against RHP and jumped at the opportunity to acquire Matt Thaiss from the Angels for David Bote. As discussed previously, the prior regime gave Bote a long-term deal, but he's been a major disappointment. He was ripping the cover off the ball at AAA Iowa, but we were able to unload 50% of his deal ($16M total owed through 2025) for Thaiss. The move gave us some desperately needed payroll flexibility (now have $2.3M; previously had just $220K). With Michael Busch (acquired from LAD in January for Alfonso Rivas) looking MLB-ready and limited to 1B/DH, I don't foresee Thaiss being around past this season. If Busch continues to blossom at AAA, Thaiss could be moved for a prospect. For now, he'll continue batting lead-off against RHP. -Anthony Rizzo's surface numbers are gruesome, but some of his struggles are attributable to a .147 BABIP through 188 PAs. He's walking at a 15% clip, so positive regression should set in shortly. -Luis Barrera suffered a nasty ankle sprain mid-April and missed five weeks, opening the door for a few of the younger outfielders. The most recent call-up was Jacob Samford, 25, acquired from the Yankees during the 2021 Deadline purge. He's a muscle hamster, power-hitting corner OF in the mold of Tyler O'Neill (lite version). He posted a nearly .200 ISO last season at AA Tennessee, and was off to a torrid start at AAA Iowa this season (.271 ISO,133 wRC+). We couldn't have asked for a better first two weeks as he popped five homers, including a mammoth 3-run bomb in extra innings to beat the White Sox on the road. He's limited to left field defensively and is allergic to drawing walks, but if he can keep the strikeout rate under 30%, he has a chance to stick long-term. The power (60 grade) is very, very real. -Amidst all of the promising developments, we had to send down Brennen Davis after 80 difficult PAs. Inexplicably, he showed up at camp a 35 overall after an electric big league debut last summer. He was overmatched in April and we sent him to Iowa for a reset. He's picked up the pace recently, posting a .159 wRC+ and .212 ISO at AAA. We're going to let him stay there until at least the All Star Break, but the current scouting reports are quite troubling. His defense (70 in LF and 50 in CF) make him a viable part-timer, but I'm afraid that the dream of him being an every day outfielder could be finished. Or maybe...my scout is simply off-base with his evaluation. We'll see. Current Base Lineups Current Standings Injured List: Current Pitching Alignment Last edited by JAF373; 04-02-2022 at 04:50 PM.