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He had a 2.98 ERA for me in 2022, not one of the top pitchers but well above average. I think that's fair, players are expected to decline as they get older and he's still going relatively strong. It seems like you got the bad end of some random variance.
There are differing philosophies of simulation. Some people would argue that the simulation should try to keep as close to the median outcome as possible, and not add variance that could keep the results away from the most likely result. Others would say that part of what's being simulated is the impacts of variance, and if you don't include realistic variance, the probabilities of everything will be all wrong. If you sim 1000 times, there should be sims where Scherzer has a bad year. You can't say the probability he has a bad year is 0. He's getting older.
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