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JAF373 · 04-29-2022, 01:10 AM

01/11/24: Signed RHP Aaron Nola to a 5-year, $120.8MM contract
Well, I said there was one big free agent splurge, and this was it. Nola was my only big ticket target on the open market. I checked in with the Phillies back in early July once it became clear that they weren't going to contend, but the asking price in a trade - even in Nola's "walk" year - was downright obscene. The Phillies tendered him a qualifying offer, which he swiftly rejected. He's started 100 games over the past three seasons - a rather impressive run of durability amidst the excessively injury-prone environment around the league. Assuming he's healthy throughout the deal, this was an eminently reasonable asking price, especially considering Joe Musgrove got six years and $153MM from the Angels. My scout grades Nola a 70 and gives him at least a 60 grade on all four pitches (70 change; 75 curve). Given the uncertainty surrounding Kershaw and Alcantara, we needed a bona fide top shelf guy at the top of the rotation.

01/20/24: Signed 3B/OF Brian Anderson to a minor league contract with a $2.4M major league option
With Arenado and a crowded outfield, I don't foresee Anderson making the opening day roster, but he's a solid part-time player who could help us later in the year if he agrees to stick around past the 30-day opt-out threshold. His overall output has decreased in each of the last three seasons, though my scout thinks he's still an overall 50.

01/25/24: Acquired SS Tim Anderson from Chicago (AL) for 2B Nico Hoerner, RHP Ryan Jensen, RHP Ramon Negron, and LHP Jace Miner
A whopper. The White Sox put Anderson on the block at the end of the season, presumably due to him entering the final year of his contract. I opened up the lines of communication shortly thereafter, but the asking price was wildly high (Marquez + top five org prospect + other solid prospects). When I tried again in mid-January, it appeared they had somewhat softened their stance, but the pieces weren't lining up. On a whim, I floated Hoerner as the centerpiece and found interest on the other end. After several rounds of back-and-forth haggling (I really did not want to give up our co-best catching prospect, Moises Ballesteros), we consummated the biggest intra-city deal since Eloy Jimenez changed sides.

Tim Anderson is a game-changer at shortstop. The free agent market was entirely devoid of options (Galvis and Orlando Arcia were the "best" available) and the Mariners' asking price on J.P. Crawford was not reasonable. I could've started the season with Jacob Amaya as the starter, but expecting him to jump from a 68 wRC+ to a replacement-level regular didn't seem wise. Anderson didn't quite match his career-best 2021 output (5.5 WAR, 139 wRC+), but he was one of the better shortstops in the AL in 2023 (4.3 WAR). We think we know what we're getting here: above-average power for the position, non-existent walk rates, and 25-30 stolen bases. Plus, he's a clubhouse leader with an elite work ethic. It's unclear if he'll lead off (Corbin Carroll is probably going to be that guy), but he could take Hoerner's old spot in the 2-hole. He'll make $14M in the final year of his deal. We'll see how things go early in the season, but I'd love to chat with him regarding a 4-5 year contract extension. With Hoerner gone, Nola is our only current long-term contract commitment.

It was difficult parting with Nico Hoerner. A fan favorite and homegrown talent on a team-friendly long-term contract, he didn't fit the mold of a trade candidate, but I gradually started to sour on his role within the lineup. To be clear, it wasn't a production problem. He followed up his 2022 breakout (3.7 WAR) with a 3.5 WAR season in 2023, yet again refusing to strike out and posting a .356 OBP. That's pretty damn strong. But the lineup needed more "oomph," with only Arenado a reliable power hitting force. Risky move if we can't re-sign Anderson, but I needed to do something big to shake up our stagnant core.

Frankly, the prospect return for the Sox was underwhelming.

Only Ramon Negron is in their top 30 (barely). We signed Negron in 2022 as a 16-year old "July 2" free agent, and he struggled mightily through his first pro season. No harm there, of course, but my scout completely lost faith, downgrading him from a 70 on signing day to a current 40. Other than a high ground ball rate, Negron didn't show any signs of development in year one (17.6% BB rate; 11.7% K rate). Presumably, the Sox still see the upside (he's still only 17), but I wanted to cut bait while there was still some lingering market value.

Ryan Jensen, 26, was a frequent ask from teams in trade discussions. It's unclear why this was the case. He's maxed out at 40 movement and 40 control and just a 35 overall grade from my scout. This is a AA arm talent who doesn't have any future viability in the bigs.

Jace Miner, 20, was our 19th round pick in 2021. His first two rookie ball seasons were downright nightmarish (8.45 ERA and 8.23 ERA, respectively) and he'll likely max out in the 30-35 FV range. He's the 64th-ranked prospect in the Sox system.

01/28/24: Signed C Cam Gallagher to a 1-year, $1.1M contract
Backup catcher was not an offseason priority and I figured I would grumble through another year of Payton Henry's solid defense and putrid bat. But when Gallagher dropped his demand, we reached out to gauge interest. As a sign of how awful this entire free agent class was, Gallagher was the top catching option available. That's not a knock, per se. Fortunately, not only is his bat quite a bit better than Henry's, but he also grades out as a superior defender (65 C ability). Henry and Ben Rortvedt will split catching duties at Iowa, and either of those would be adequate backups if Gallagher goes down.

Arbitration Awards/Extensions:
RHP Sandy Alcantara: $5.5M
RHP Bryan Garcia: $5.0M
RHP Elieser Hernandez: $3.36M
LHP Jalen Beeks: $1.36M
RHP Tyler Ivey: $830K

Current Injuries:
RHP Sandy Alcantara (60-day IL - projected return June/July)
2B Jorge Polanco (60 day IL - projected return late March/early April)

04-29-2022, 01:10 AM	#54
JAF373 Minors (Triple A) Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 256	01/11/24: Signed RHP Aaron Nola to a 5-year, $120.8MM contract Well, I said there was one big free agent splurge, and this was it. Nola was my only big ticket target on the open market. I checked in with the Phillies back in early July once it became clear that they weren't going to contend, but the asking price in a trade - even in Nola's "walk" year - was downright obscene. The Phillies tendered him a qualifying offer, which he swiftly rejected. He's started 100 games over the past three seasons - a rather impressive run of durability amidst the excessively injury-prone environment around the league. Assuming he's healthy throughout the deal, this was an eminently reasonable asking price, especially considering Joe Musgrove got six years and $153MM from the Angels. My scout grades Nola a 70 and gives him at least a 60 grade on all four pitches (70 change; 75 curve). Given the uncertainty surrounding Kershaw and Alcantara, we needed a bona fide top shelf guy at the top of the rotation. 01/20/24: Signed 3B/OF Brian Anderson to a minor league contract with a $2.4M major league option With Arenado and a crowded outfield, I don't foresee Anderson making the opening day roster, but he's a solid part-time player who could help us later in the year if he agrees to stick around past the 30-day opt-out threshold. His overall output has decreased in each of the last three seasons, though my scout thinks he's still an overall 50. 01/25/24: Acquired SS Tim Anderson from Chicago (AL) for 2B Nico Hoerner, RHP Ryan Jensen, RHP Ramon Negron, and LHP Jace Miner A whopper. The White Sox put Anderson on the block at the end of the season, presumably due to him entering the final year of his contract. I opened up the lines of communication shortly thereafter, but the asking price was wildly high (Marquez + top five org prospect + other solid prospects). When I tried again in mid-January, it appeared they had somewhat softened their stance, but the pieces weren't lining up. On a whim, I floated Hoerner as the centerpiece and found interest on the other end. After several rounds of back-and-forth haggling (I really did not want to give up our co-best catching prospect, Moises Ballesteros), we consummated the biggest intra-city deal since Eloy Jimenez changed sides. Tim Anderson is a game-changer at shortstop. The free agent market was entirely devoid of options (Galvis and Orlando Arcia were the "best" available) and the Mariners' asking price on J.P. Crawford was not reasonable. I could've started the season with Jacob Amaya as the starter, but expecting him to jump from a 68 wRC+ to a replacement-level regular didn't seem wise. Anderson didn't quite match his career-best 2021 output (5.5 WAR, 139 wRC+), but he was one of the better shortstops in the AL in 2023 (4.3 WAR). We think we know what we're getting here: above-average power for the position, non-existent walk rates, and 25-30 stolen bases. Plus, he's a clubhouse leader with an elite work ethic. It's unclear if he'll lead off (Corbin Carroll is probably going to be that guy), but he could take Hoerner's old spot in the 2-hole. He'll make $14M in the final year of his deal. We'll see how things go early in the season, but I'd love to chat with him regarding a 4-5 year contract extension. With Hoerner gone, Nola is our only current long-term contract commitment. It was difficult parting with Nico Hoerner. A fan favorite and homegrown talent on a team-friendly long-term contract, he didn't fit the mold of a trade candidate, but I gradually started to sour on his role within the lineup. To be clear, it wasn't a production problem. He followed up his 2022 breakout (3.7 WAR) with a 3.5 WAR season in 2023, yet again refusing to strike out and posting a .356 OBP. That's pretty damn strong. But the lineup needed more "oomph," with only Arenado a reliable power hitting force. Risky move if we can't re-sign Anderson, but I needed to do something big to shake up our stagnant core. Frankly, the prospect return for the Sox was underwhelming. Only Ramon Negron is in their top 30 (barely). We signed Negron in 2022 as a 16-year old "July 2" free agent, and he struggled mightily through his first pro season. No harm there, of course, but my scout completely lost faith, downgrading him from a 70 on signing day to a current 40. Other than a high ground ball rate, Negron didn't show any signs of development in year one (17.6% BB rate; 11.7% K rate). Presumably, the Sox still see the upside (he's still only 17), but I wanted to cut bait while there was still some lingering market value. Ryan Jensen, 26, was a frequent ask from teams in trade discussions. It's unclear why this was the case. He's maxed out at 40 movement and 40 control and just a 35 overall grade from my scout. This is a AA arm talent who doesn't have any future viability in the bigs. Jace Miner, 20, was our 19th round pick in 2021. His first two rookie ball seasons were downright nightmarish (8.45 ERA and 8.23 ERA, respectively) and he'll likely max out in the 30-35 FV range. He's the 64th-ranked prospect in the Sox system. 01/28/24: Signed C Cam Gallagher to a 1-year, $1.1M contract Backup catcher was not an offseason priority and I figured I would grumble through another year of Payton Henry's solid defense and putrid bat. But when Gallagher dropped his demand, we reached out to gauge interest. As a sign of how awful this entire free agent class was, Gallagher was the top catching option available. That's not a knock, per se. Fortunately, not only is his bat quite a bit better than Henry's, but he also grades out as a superior defender (65 C ability). Henry and Ben Rortvedt will split catching duties at Iowa, and either of those would be adequate backups if Gallagher goes down. Arbitration Awards/Extensions: RHP Sandy Alcantara: $5.5M RHP Bryan Garcia: $5.0M RHP Elieser Hernandez: $3.36M LHP Jalen Beeks: $1.36M RHP Tyler Ivey: $830K Current Injuries: RHP Sandy Alcantara (60-day IL - projected return June/July) 2B Jorge Polanco (60 day IL - projected return late March/early April) Last edited by JAF373; 04-29-2022 at 11:21 AM.