With updated player ratings tempering expectations, I realized that this inaugural 2022 season was not going to include the Padres window of contention opening. My focus quickly shifted to 2023 and beyond.
Spring Training and the buildup to Opening Day was mostly uneventful outside of a couple news items:
- 2B Enrique Borges, my first round pick, suffered a sprained elbow one week into Spring Training and would be out for five weeks, locking in my tentative plan to start him in the minors.
- SP Adrian Hernandez, my third round pick, signed a contract extension that will keep him under team control for 8 years through the 2029 season. It’s an 8 year/$49M contract with that final year being a team option for $9.4M.
- SP Jesus Galvez, my fourth round pick, let extension negotiations bleed into the start of the season but will (hopefully) soon be signing an 8 year/$60M contract extension.
With the realization that the 2022 season would be an uncompetitive one, I decided to fully commit to starting the season with all my franchise cornerstone players in the minors in an attempt to gain one or more additional years of team control. The exceptions to this being SPs Adrian Hernandez and Jesus Galvez, CL Antonio Gonzalez, C Miguel Cruz, IF Jon Rodriguez, and OF Andy Castro. Everyone else on the Opening Day roster I do not anticipate being on the major league roster long term.
MLB’s Preseason Projections agree, giving my Opening Day roster an expected record of 49-113. Of course various prospect promotions throughout the season will help exceed that record, but even just finishing 2022 with a .500 record seems like a goal out of reach.
For my long term outlook I was happy to see the Padres get the top spot in the Minor League System Rankings, with two top 10 prospects, 9 top 100 prospects, and 25 top 200 prospects. Only 4 of those top 200 prospects are at a level below AA, highlighting both how quickly the Padres major league team should improve but also how important it will be to have a strong amateur draft and international amateur free agency this season.
And let the season begin…