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JAF373 · 05-03-2022, 12:39 AM

May 10, 2024

Plenty to discuss, but the major news in the first month of the season is Clayton Kershaw's retirement announcement. CK is a prideful dude, and he knew he was a shell of himself after last season's elbow woes. Our preseason scouting concurred, grading him an overall 40 with 40 stuff and two 35 grade pitches. In five starts, he's fanned just 9.8% of hitters, the lowest mark of any starting pitcher. Miraculously, he's avoided getting blown up thanks to 65 control, but his ground ball rate has plummeted from 60% to 38%. It's a matter of time before he gets pummeled, but it appears he's planning to finish out this season. Barring a miraculous turnaround, we might have to consider an otherwise unthinkable DFA. Fortunately, as bad as it's been for him in Chicago, it could've been worse if we gave him more than a two-year contract.

Two transactions of note:

04/11/22: Acquired RHP Melvin Jimenez from LA Dodgers for UTIL Chase Strumpf
The organization selected Strumpf, 26, in the 2019 second round out of UCLA but he only reached Double A for the first time last season. His primary calling card is experience at six different positions, but he's not particularly adept at any of them. Our scout bills him a 30+ with a bit of remaining projection, but we had no use for him at Tennessee. The Dodgers were the only interested suitor, presumably due to their longstanding organizational love for multi-position flexibility.

Jimenez, 24, comes with an unusual profile. He's a fairly extreme ground ball pitcher with 70 movement and just mediocre stuff (50) and control (45). He signed with the Dodgers in 2015 as a 16-year-old out of the DR and put up prolific strikeout rates at the lower levels, including a 31% clip in 2022 at Low-A. He leveled off last season at High-A (19% K/10% BB) but maintained a 58% ground ball rate. With three plus pitches (60 fastball, 65 curve, 65 change) he's a candidate to be added to the Rule 5 in the offseason if he produces at Tennessee and is presently our 61st-ranked prospect.

04/13/24: Claimed RHP David McKay off of waivers from Detroit
McKay, 29, spent nearly five seasons with Detroit, bouncing between AAA Toledo and the big leagues. He spent all of 2023 at AAA and scuffled through a difficult season. He was among the last few cuts from the opening day roster and was out of options. Of course, as always, there were quite a few players on the wire on opening day, and I didn't think we needed another reliever. But upon reconsideration, I felt his 70 grade stuff and three electric pitches (65 fastball, 75 slider, 70 changeup) could help us in a limited role. Good return thus far in a limited 9.2 inning sample (28.2% K, 12.2% BB) with a 0.93 FIP and 3.96 ERA. He's making the vet minimum and won't be arb-eligible for at least another season, though he also could find himself back on the waiver wire. Low-risk, cheap add here.

Starting Pitching

Already discussed Kershaw's woes. That 3.86 ERA is pure smoke-and-mirrors as indicated by the 5.20 SIERA. Nola has mixed in three dominant starts with two average outings. Certainly giving us everything we hoped for thus far. Little fired a complete game, 14K magnum opus in his third start. He's been an innings-devouring horse thus far, pitching 115 or more pitches twice and 100 pitches three times. The 59% ground ball rate is phenomenal (as is the 8% BB rate at 20 years old). Pretty standard stuff from Manaea , whose homer rates have spiked in the last few years but mitigates the damage by keeping his walk rates low. The other big story - along with Little - is Kyle Wright's dominance through the first month. A waiver wire claim at the end of last season, his 29.3% K rate would be a career-best number, and it doesn't appear to be a fluke based upon the advanced metrics. Maybe, just maybe, we've found something here with the late-late-late post-hype breakout...?

Relief Pitching

Ehh, kind of a mess thus far, but it's early. Jalen Beeks, whose career has been marred by serious arm and shoulder injuries, is done for the season. It's a miracle he stayed healthy throughout 2023. Great return for a cheap waiver claim. Depth takes a hit, but I think we have enough at AAA to compensate. Tyler Rogers is down for another week or two, but the aforementioned David McKay addition obviates any concern there. Mason Fox is back up within the last week after opening the season at Iowa. Otherwise, these are extremely small samples that don't warrant an overreaction.

Hitters

Incredible production thus far from Andrew McCutchen and Brian Anderson, both of whom have pulverized lefties and lengthened the lineup well beyond what we had last year. I mentioned the need for a quasi-bounce back from Willson Contreras, and thus far, he has obliged. Tim Anderson and Corbin Carroll have been electrifying at the top of the order...but Nolan Arenado suffered through a brutal April and couldn't take advantage. He'll come around. There's nothing to indicate a problem and the .208 BABIP points to some bad luck. Jacob Sanford is doing his normal thing. Way above-average power and not a single walk in 53 PAs. If he maintains the power, I can live with it as a 9-hole hitter with solid defense in LF. Anthony Rizzo is still getting destroyed by shifts and BABIP (.122). He's putting the ball in play (12% K rate, 7% BB rate) but it's constantly right into the teeth of the defense. I wish there was a solution, but I'm hard-pressed to find it. Despite an atrocious April, it's still too early to give up on Jacob Amaya, though we did send him to Iowa today for a reset. He's the highest-rated defender on the team, but we called up offseason acquisition Will Wilson (our #11) prospect to take over the starting second base job. Wilson has raked thus far at Iowa (.430 wOBA, 156 wRC+) in 88 PAs and I'm hopeful that his bat can outweigh the loss of Amaya's elite glove. Jahmai Jones has occasionally filled in at second and will likely continue to do so (along with periodic pinch running cameos).

05-03-2022, 12:39 AM	#57
JAF373 Minors (Triple A) Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 256	Kershaw Retiring at End of Season; Cubs Treading Water May 10, 2024 Plenty to discuss, but the major news in the first month of the season is Clayton Kershaw's retirement announcement. CK is a prideful dude, and he knew he was a shell of himself after last season's elbow woes. Our preseason scouting concurred, grading him an overall 40 with 40 stuff and two 35 grade pitches. In five starts, he's fanned just 9.8% of hitters, the lowest mark of any starting pitcher. Miraculously, he's avoided getting blown up thanks to 65 control, but his ground ball rate has plummeted from 60% to 38%. It's a matter of time before he gets pummeled, but it appears he's planning to finish out this season. Barring a miraculous turnaround, we might have to consider an otherwise unthinkable DFA. Fortunately, as bad as it's been for him in Chicago, it could've been worse if we gave him more than a two-year contract. Two transactions of note: 04/11/22: Acquired RHP Melvin Jimenez from LA Dodgers for UTIL Chase Strumpf The organization selected Strumpf, 26, in the 2019 second round out of UCLA but he only reached Double A for the first time last season. His primary calling card is experience at six different positions, but he's not particularly adept at any of them. Our scout bills him a 30+ with a bit of remaining projection, but we had no use for him at Tennessee. The Dodgers were the only interested suitor, presumably due to their longstanding organizational love for multi-position flexibility. Jimenez, 24, comes with an unusual profile. He's a fairly extreme ground ball pitcher with 70 movement and just mediocre stuff (50) and control (45). He signed with the Dodgers in 2015 as a 16-year-old out of the DR and put up prolific strikeout rates at the lower levels, including a 31% clip in 2022 at Low-A. He leveled off last season at High-A (19% K/10% BB) but maintained a 58% ground ball rate. With three plus pitches (60 fastball, 65 curve, 65 change) he's a candidate to be added to the Rule 5 in the offseason if he produces at Tennessee and is presently our 61st-ranked prospect. 04/13/24: Claimed RHP David McKay off of waivers from Detroit McKay, 29, spent nearly five seasons with Detroit, bouncing between AAA Toledo and the big leagues. He spent all of 2023 at AAA and scuffled through a difficult season. He was among the last few cuts from the opening day roster and was out of options. Of course, as always, there were quite a few players on the wire on opening day, and I didn't think we needed another reliever. But upon reconsideration, I felt his 70 grade stuff and three electric pitches (65 fastball, 75 slider, 70 changeup) could help us in a limited role. Good return thus far in a limited 9.2 inning sample (28.2% K, 12.2% BB) with a 0.93 FIP and 3.96 ERA. He's making the vet minimum and won't be arb-eligible for at least another season, though he also could find himself back on the waiver wire. Low-risk, cheap add here. Starting Pitching Already discussed Kershaw's woes. That 3.86 ERA is pure smoke-and-mirrors as indicated by the 5.20 SIERA. Nola has mixed in three dominant starts with two average outings. Certainly giving us everything we hoped for thus far. Little fired a complete game, 14K magnum opus in his third start. He's been an innings-devouring horse thus far, pitching 115 or more pitches twice and 100 pitches three times. The 59% ground ball rate is phenomenal (as is the 8% BB rate at 20 years old). Pretty standard stuff from Manaea , whose homer rates have spiked in the last few years but mitigates the damage by keeping his walk rates low. The other big story - along with Little - is Kyle Wright's dominance through the first month. A waiver wire claim at the end of last season, his 29.3% K rate would be a career-best number, and it doesn't appear to be a fluke based upon the advanced metrics. Maybe, just maybe, we've found something here with the late-late-late post-hype breakout...? Relief Pitching Ehh, kind of a mess thus far, but it's early. Jalen Beeks, whose career has been marred by serious arm and shoulder injuries, is done for the season. It's a miracle he stayed healthy throughout 2023. Great return for a cheap waiver claim. Depth takes a hit, but I think we have enough at AAA to compensate. Tyler Rogers is down for another week or two, but the aforementioned David McKay addition obviates any concern there. Mason Fox is back up within the last week after opening the season at Iowa. Otherwise, these are extremely small samples that don't warrant an overreaction. Hitters Incredible production thus far from Andrew McCutchen and Brian Anderson, both of whom have pulverized lefties and lengthened the lineup well beyond what we had last year. I mentioned the need for a quasi-bounce back from Willson Contreras, and thus far, he has obliged. Tim Anderson and Corbin Carroll have been electrifying at the top of the order...but Nolan Arenado suffered through a brutal April and couldn't take advantage. He'll come around. There's nothing to indicate a problem and the .208 BABIP points to some bad luck. Jacob Sanford is doing his normal thing. Way above-average power and not a single walk in 53 PAs. If he maintains the power, I can live with it as a 9-hole hitter with solid defense in LF. Anthony Rizzo is still getting destroyed by shifts and BABIP (.122). He's putting the ball in play (12% K rate, 7% BB rate) but it's constantly right into the teeth of the defense. I wish there was a solution, but I'm hard-pressed to find it. Despite an atrocious April, it's still too early to give up on Jacob Amaya, though we did send him to Iowa today for a reset. He's the highest-rated defender on the team, but we called up offseason acquisition Will Wilson (our #11) prospect to take over the starting second base job. Wilson has raked thus far at Iowa (.430 wOBA, 156 wRC+) in 88 PAs and I'm hopeful that his bat can outweigh the loss of Amaya's elite glove. Jahmai Jones has occasionally filled in at second and will likely continue to do so (along with periodic pinch running cameos).