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MathBandit · 05-06-2022, 07:17 PM

I know I've said this in other threads, but I still don't see the logic behind weighting each of the last three years equally.

Entering 2022, did any of us think Vladdy and Yelich were equally-good hitters and likely to put up the same hitting numbers in 2022? They each had one ridiculous season, one good season, and one average season in their last three. Do you truly think that a player who was worth 8 WAR, then 4 WAR, then 2 WAR is just as good as one who was worth 2 WAR, 4 WAR, 8 WAR assuming all else is equal? Telling the AI to treat the most recent numbers as being worth no more than the numbers from two years ago is absolutely a huge departure from the way (just about?) every human evaluates players.

05-06-2022, 07:17 PM	#58
MathBandit All Star Starter Join Date: Feb 2021 Posts: 1,445	I know I've said this in other threads, but I still don't see the logic behind weighting each of the last three years equally. Entering 2022, did any of us think Vladdy and Yelich were equally-good hitters and likely to put up the same hitting numbers in 2022? They each had one ridiculous season, one good season, and one average season in their last three. Do you truly think that a player who was worth 8 WAR, then 4 WAR, then 2 WAR is just as good as one who was worth 2 WAR, 4 WAR, 8 WAR assuming all else is equal? Telling the AI to treat the most recent numbers as being worth no more than the numbers from two years ago is absolutely a huge departure from the way (just about?) every human evaluates players.