[Pelican]

Sweed’s thread is really helpful for comprehensive draft prep. Of course to each his or her own, when it comes to filters. I favor college players, particularly pitchers, because they have less variability and are much closer to playing in the major leagues. To me, the SEC is probably equivalent to AA or at least A+ in terms of competition. A guy who succeeds there and is now 21 or 22 is only a few steps from the major leagues. And I have found that even in college there are some “diamonds in the rough” who still have room to improve. Look at Josh Winder, SP for the Twins, who I just added to my fantasy team. Good underlying skills, and keeps getting better at each level.

Granted that limiting myself to college players oversimplifies the process, and ignores some young studs. I have expanded this approach to include junior college players, and even guys with only one year of college, if their underlying metrics are very good. It does create something of an odd organization, with lots of guys in their early to mid twenties, versus a bunch of teenagers who were international draftees, great raw skills; but many years from being ready for prime time, and few players in the middle to fill those low A and rookie teams (at least, until the young international players can move to those levels). It’s a work in progress.

The best argument against my approach is the large number of high school stars who have scholarships lined up at top colleges, but cannot resist signing for a big bonus and foregoing college. Statistically those high school guys are a greater risk than the college guys. No matter how good a scout may be, it’s hard to project what an 18-year-old will look like at 25.