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percy_sutherland · 06-24-2022, 11:04 AM

But What About Pitchers?

Last month we looked at the best (and worst) batting performances of 1942 using wRC+. What about pitching--is there a similar statistic we can use to evaluate pitchers? Luckily for us, there is: FIP- is the pitching analogue to wRC+.

Typically when evaluating pitchers--either as a sportswriter filling out an Allen ballot or a FABL front office determining who should be in the rotation--we start with ERA. And ERA is a good place to start. After all, ERA measures how many runs were scored when a pitcher was on the mound, and a pitcher's primary job is to prevent runs. But there are so many factors that go into ERA that are outside of the pitcher's control. Consider two pitchers who give up the exact same number of batted balls--one pitches for the Cougars with the league's best defense, and one pitches for the Foresters with the league's worst defense. The Foresters' pitcher will allow more baserunners and thus more runs than the Cougars' pitcher. But if they gave up the exact same number of batted balls, can we really say with certainty that the Cougars' pitcher is the better pitcher?

FIP--or Fielding Independent Pitching--is a measurement of a pitcher’s performance that strips out the role of defense, luck, and sequencing, making it a more stable indicator of how a pitcher actually performed over a given period of time than a runs allowed based statistic. The "minus" version of FIP is park and league adjusted, allowing comparison between pitchers who pitch in different ballparks and in different run scoring environments (and eras). Like wRC+, FIP- is scaled such that 100 is league average. Unlike wRC+, with FIP- lower numbers are better (hence, the "minus") in order to replicate other pitching statistics like ERA.

In 1942, there were 68 pitchers who pitched enough innings to qualify for the league ERA title. The following table shows how those pitchers fall into the various FIP- categories.

Code:


Rating         FIP-      Player Count
Excellent       70        2
Great           80        6
Above Average   90       14
Average        100       30
Below Average  110        3
Poor           115        0
Awful          125        3

Again like wRC+, most are some degree of average, but let's look at the outliers.

The two pitchers with Excellent seasons according to FIP-:

57 - Rufus Barrell, III (24-5, 1.76) (CIN)
66 - George Garrison (22-10, 2.52) (TOR)

The two 25-year-olds both had tremendous seasons. Barrell, the CA Allen Award winner, was just a tick better--he struck out more and walked fewer batters than Garrison. Garrison's season was definitely Allen Award-worthy, he was just unfortunate in that he is in the same Association as Barrell.

There were 6 pitchers with Great seasons:

71 - Ed Bowman (23-8, 2.36) (NYG)
76 - Joe Hancock (15-16, 2.32) (TOR)
77 - Lloyd Stevens (17-7, 2.71) (PHI)
80 - George Brooks (12-10, 2.87) (PHI)
80 - Chuck Cole (18-14, 2.29) (NYS)
80 - Jake DeYoung (18-11, 2.90) (MON)

This group includes the FA Allen Award winner--Gothams' rookie Ed Bowman. It also demonstrates the folly of leaning on won-loss record in evaluating pitchers. According to FIP-, Joe Hancock had a great season, irrespective of his 15-16 record. Dig a little deeper and you'll find that Toronto scored just 3.2 runs/game when Hancock was on the mound, compared to 4.3 runs/game for Garrison.

At the other end of the scale, no one ended up in the Poor category, and so here are the 3 pitchers in the Below Average category:

111 - Dave Rankin (7-17, 4.30) (CLE)
113 - Dan Everett (6-17, 5.37) (WAS)
113 - Rabbit Day (16-12, 3.95) (CHI)

Here you see two pitchers who are on the downside of their careers in Rankin and Day, and one in Everett who has yet to find his footing. In 4 seasons with the Eagles, Everett has not had a FIP- below 100.

And finally, the 3 pitchers in the Awful category:

126 - Bill Ross (8-14, 4.66) (MON)
127 - Hank Mittan (8-18, 5.24) (BRK)
151 - Charlie Wheeler (10-12, 4.70) (DET)

In 183 innings, Ross stuck out 38 batters and allowed 27 home runs. And one wonders what happened with Wheeler, who perfectly epitomized the season in Detroit. In 1940, Wheeler was 15-7 with a 2.45 ERA (FIP- of 86). His 1942 performance was a rather long ways from that.

06-24-2022, 11:04 AM	#458
percy_sutherland Bat Boy Join Date: Dec 2019 Posts: 11	November, 17th, 1942 -- From the Desk of Percy Sutherland But What About Pitchers? Last month we looked at the best (and worst) batting performances of 1942 using wRC+. What about pitching--is there a similar statistic we can use to evaluate pitchers? Luckily for us, there is: FIP- is the pitching analogue to wRC+. Typically when evaluating pitchers--either as a sportswriter filling out an Allen ballot or a FABL front office determining who should be in the rotation--we start with ERA. And ERA is a good place to start. After all, ERA measures how many runs were scored when a pitcher was on the mound, and a pitcher's primary job is to prevent runs. But there are so many factors that go into ERA that are outside of the pitcher's control. Consider two pitchers who give up the exact same number of batted balls--one pitches for the Cougars with the league's best defense, and one pitches for the Foresters with the league's worst defense. The Foresters' pitcher will allow more baserunners and thus more runs than the Cougars' pitcher. But if they gave up the exact same number of batted balls, can we really say with certainty that the Cougars' pitcher is the better pitcher? FIP--or Fielding Independent Pitching--is a measurement of a pitcher’s performance that strips out the role of defense, luck, and sequencing, making it a more stable indicator of how a pitcher actually performed over a given period of time than a runs allowed based statistic. The "minus" version of FIP is park and league adjusted, allowing comparison between pitchers who pitch in different ballparks and in different run scoring environments (and eras). Like wRC+, FIP- is scaled such that 100 is league average. Unlike wRC+, with FIP- lower numbers are better (hence, the "minus") in order to replicate other pitching statistics like ERA. In 1942, there were 68 pitchers who pitched enough innings to qualify for the league ERA title. The following table shows how those pitchers fall into the various FIP- categories. Code: Rating FIP- Player Count Excellent 70 2 Great 80 6 Above Average 90 14 Average 100 30 Below Average 110 3 Poor 115 0 Awful 125 3 Again like wRC+, most are some degree of average, but let's look at the outliers. The two pitchers with Excellent seasons according to FIP-: 57 - Rufus Barrell, III (24-5, 1.76) (CIN) 66 - George Garrison (22-10, 2.52) (TOR) The two 25-year-olds both had tremendous seasons. Barrell, the CA Allen Award winner, was just a tick better--he struck out more and walked fewer batters than Garrison. Garrison's season was definitely Allen Award-worthy, he was just unfortunate in that he is in the same Association as Barrell. There were 6 pitchers with Great seasons: 71 - Ed Bowman (23-8, 2.36) (NYG) 76 - Joe Hancock (15-16, 2.32) (TOR) 77 - Lloyd Stevens (17-7, 2.71) (PHI) 80 - George Brooks (12-10, 2.87) (PHI) 80 - Chuck Cole (18-14, 2.29) (NYS) 80 - Jake DeYoung (18-11, 2.90) (MON) This group includes the FA Allen Award winner--Gothams' rookie Ed Bowman. It also demonstrates the folly of leaning on won-loss record in evaluating pitchers. According to FIP-, Joe Hancock had a great season, irrespective of his 15-16 record. Dig a little deeper and you'll find that Toronto scored just 3.2 runs/game when Hancock was on the mound, compared to 4.3 runs/game for Garrison. At the other end of the scale, no one ended up in the Poor category, and so here are the 3 pitchers in the Below Average category: 111 - Dave Rankin (7-17, 4.30) (CLE) 113 - Dan Everett (6-17, 5.37) (WAS) 113 - Rabbit Day (16-12, 3.95) (CHI) Here you see two pitchers who are on the downside of their careers in Rankin and Day, and one in Everett who has yet to find his footing. In 4 seasons with the Eagles, Everett has not had a FIP- below 100. And finally, the 3 pitchers in the Awful category: 126 - Bill Ross (8-14, 4.66) (MON) 127 - Hank Mittan (8-18, 5.24) (BRK) 151 - Charlie Wheeler (10-12, 4.70) (DET) In 183 innings, Ross stuck out 38 batters and allowed 27 home runs. And one wonders what happened with Wheeler, who perfectly epitomized the season in Detroit. In 1940, Wheeler was 15-7 with a 2.45 ERA (FIP- of 86). His 1942 performance was a rather long ways from that. Last edited by percy_sutherland; 06-24-2022 at 12:46 PM.