Quote:
Originally Posted by TwanLX2000
Just to play devil's advocate (because I don't stay up to watch the Dodgers that often), I'm sure a heavy ground ball pitcher isn't hurt by the stellar defense that plays behind him -- ranked between 2nd and 5th depending on the metric. 2/3 of their lineup add much better than positive defensive value, and that includes all the positions up the middle. That's what FIP is designed to do: predict how many runs Gonsolin would earn if he didn't have the benefit of defensive runs saved. He has the highest walk rate in the Dodgers' front four (five if you consider a healthy Buehler) and likewise the worst K/BB ratio among them. Consider that his sample size has only played in front of this defense, so the sustainable nature of his BABIP has not been entirely tested.
I think it makes sense to consider these stats heavier in PT, because he's not going to be playing in front of that defense every day. And if he does, the card plays like it should. The number on the card is just a number unless we're trying to flip it; the individual pitching ratings are exactly where they should be.
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So what you're saying is...
"Introducing NL CY Young Winner, 77 Overall, Tony Gonslin!"
Doesn't something just sound really wrong there. Let's say he finishes the season 20-0 with a 1.5 ERA - if his walk/K rates stay the same with low BAPIP, he should be a 77 overall still, right? Or will they magically lift his rating to 100 like Shohei's despite the same numbers? LOL.