Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt Arnold
It would be nice if guys like Gonsolin this year (or Ray last year) were rated better. It's just a limitation of the current pitching model that we use, where stuff like balls in play are almost completely out of control of the pitcher.
Is that true in real life always? No, not really. Someday I'm sure we'll refine the current pitching model to find a way to better represent the guys like Maddux or Morris or Rivera or guys who can obviously show a long-term ability to beat the league in BABIP. But without that, guys only really get carded based on the stats that go into the Stuff/Movement/Control framework, and that's going to hurt a guy who can beat that and pitch better than those numbers.
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I would also caution people in general to assume that *any* pitcher will fall into that Maddux/Rivera category, no matter how good they look over even one or two years.
Ray is actually a great example of that; his underlying numbers this year aren't all that different from last year (slightly lower K%, similar BB%, lower HR/9, BABIP is even lower than last year), but the 'surface' results like ERA paint a picture more in line with what those underlying numbers suggest - in large part since his obscene LOB% of over 90 from last year has come back down to Earth.
It's the same argument I tend to have with a lot of Blue Jays fans. Manoah has been great this year, and his 9-3 record and 2.33 ERA (both even better than that before last night) are flashy - but Gausman has been the *much* better pitcher in 2022.