OOTP Developments Forums - View Single Post

ojoe · 11-02-2022, 09:31 PM

OK, if I have any chance of going deep into this project I'm going to have to learn to keep it brief. So let's see if I can pull this off...

Year: 1991
Real AL Champion: Minnesota Twins
Real NL Champion: Atlanta Braves
Real World Series: Twins in 7 - an all-time classic
American League Byes: #1 Minnesota Twins, #2 Toronto Blue Jays
AL Wild Card Round: #3 Chicago White Sox vs. #6 Detroit Tigers, #4 Texas Rangers vs. #5 Oakland A's
National League Byes: #1 Pittsburgh Pirates, #2 Atlanta Braves
NL Wild Card Round: #3 St. Louis Cardinals vs. #6 Philadelphia Phillies, #4 Los Angeles Dodgers vs. #5 San Diego Padres
Tiebreaker: The first four spots in the AL were easy, but then Oakland, Detroit, and Boston all tied for the 5/6 spots. So I went to head-to-head records, and Boston lost the season series to both the A's and the Tigers, so they were out. Oakland also won their season series against Detroit, so they got the higher seed.
Wait, is that National League correct?: No. No it is not. The Dodgers should have been the 3 seed, the Cardinals 5 (they would have tied at 4 with San Diego, but the Padres won the season series). So the Wild Card matchups ended up being 3 v. 4, 5 v. 6. Don't know how that happened but, that kind of mixup is grounds for scrapping the project and running it again with the correct seeding.
So why didn't you? Because I didn't catch it until I ran the whole thing, and there was one specific game in the Division Series round that I just couldn't bear to sacrifice.
Did anybody get hosed by this? Yep. The Padres. They should have hosted the Wild Card round, but ended up having to go to LA. It did not go as well for them as their recent real-live adventure.
Do you hate the Padres? Nope. I'm a Giants fan. We have a common enemy. But that common enemy played in (and won) a crazy game that I didn't want to erase.
Any other issues? Yeah, I've been seeding these wrong. I've been matching the 3/6 Wild Card winner against the 1 seed, and the 4/5 winner against. Both leagues in this year's playoffs had examples showing that this is incorrect. I've already run five of these and will correct it going forward...So actually, my NL seeding screw up did result in accurate Division Series matchups.
Oh, and I forgot to change the Division Series from 7 games to 5.
You're not really making this shorter, are you? Not at the moment, no.

Wild Card Predictions and Results
AL WC 1: Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers
Sim Module Prediction: Rangers in 2
Actual Results: Rangers in 2
Dennis Eckersley blew the save and took the loss in Game 1, and pitched 2 1/3 innings along the way, making him unavailable to close out a 1-run lead in the 9th inning of Game 2. Rick Honeycutt ended up blowing the lead in that game. The winning run scored on a wild pitch.
MVP: Rafael Palmeiro, Texas (6/10, .900 SLG)

AL WC 2: Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
Sim Module Prediction: Somehow, Tigers in 2...and by a combined score of 11-1
Actual Results: White Sox in 3
MVP: Craig Grebeck, Chicago (4/8, 3 RBI)

NL WC 1:San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Dodgers in 3
Actual Results: Dodgers in 2
Two-hit, 12K shutout by Kevin Gross in Game 2 - San Diego scored 0 runs on 8 hits for the series
MVP: Kevin Gross, Los Angeles

NL WC 2: Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals
Prediction: Again, the sim module picks a dominating 2-0 sweep for the 6 seed
Actual Results: St. Louis in 3
MVP: Pedro Guerrero, St. Louis (4/11, .818 SLG)

Division Series Round

ALDS 1: Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Blue Jays in 6
Actual Results: Rangers in 6
A 3-hit, 12K shutout by Nolan Ryan in Game 6
MVP: Rafael Palmeiro, Texas (8/24...Nolan Ryan was robbed, 2-0, 1.06 ERA, 19K in 17 innings)

ALDS 2: Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Twins in 7
Actual Results: White Sox in 5
MVP: Frank Thomas, Chicago (8/16, 3 HR, 1.062 SLG)
So real World Series winners in this experiment? 0-1 so far

NLDS 1: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Dodgers in 5
Actual Results: Dodgers in 6
MVP: Eddie Murray, Los Angeles (11/25, .560 SLG)...but LA's real MVP was probably Atlanta closer Alejandro Pena. In Games 1, 3, and 6, Pena pitched 3.0 scoreless innings, allowing 1 hit. Game 2 and 5? 1.1 IP, 7 ER, 2 blown saves.

And speaking of which, I mentioned a crazy game that I didn't want to erase. That's Game 2 of this series.

LA scored 3 in the top of the 1st, Atlanta answers with 3 in the bottom of the inning. Atlanta takes a 9-4 lead into the 8th...Dodgers score 5 in the 8th, 3 in the 9th. ...So maybe it's not that crazy, just an amazing comeback. By the Dodgers. Wondering now why I got so emotionally attached to that game. Maybe it's that the decisive blow was struck by Eddie Murray and I like him.
The line score:

NLDS 2: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Pirates in 5
Actual Results: Pirates in 4
MVP: Bobby Bonilla, Pittsburgh (10/17, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 1.059 SLG)

League Championship Series

American League: Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox

Prediction: White Sox in 7
Actual Results: Rangers in 5
MVP: Brian Downing, Texas (7/20, 6 RBI)

National League: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Prediction: Pirates in 6
Actual Results: Pirates in 4
MVP: Doug Drabek, Pittsburgh (2-0, 1.04 ERA, 11 K, 17.1 IP)

World Series: Texas Rangers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Pirates in 6
Actual Results:
Game 1: Pittsburgh 3, Texas 1
Game 2: Texas 7, Pittsburgh 1
Game 3: Pittsburgh 3, Texas 0
Game 4: Pittsburgh 4, Texas 1
Game 5: Pittsburgh 9, Texas 4
MVP: Barry Bonds, Pittsburgh...only 5/17 with 2 HR...So I think it should've been John Smiley, 2-0, 11 Ks, 1.12 ERA in 16 innings, including 1 ER in 8 IP in the clincher.

Recap/Stats/Leaders
How did the bye teams do? Pittsburgh won, everybody else lost. So, 1-3 this year and 4-4 after the first two years.
Did the real league champs win the pennant? Nope. 0-2 this year, 2-2 so far.
Did the real World Series champs win it all? Again, no. This is the first season I've played where there was a real World Series, so 0-1.
Hits: 23 - Rafael Palmeiro, Texas
Runs: 12 - Julio Franco, Ruben Sierra, Texas; Gary Redus, Pittsburgh
HR: 5 - Barry Bonds, Gary Redus, Pittsburgh; Frank Thomas, Chicago
RBI: 14 - Gary Redus, Pittsburgh
AVG: .377 - Eddie Murray, Los Angeles (56 PA)
OBP: .517 - Frank Thomas, Chicago (58 PA)
SLG: .732 - Thomas
OPS: 1.249 - Thomas
SB: 8 - Otis Nixon, Atlanta; Gary Pettis, Texas
W/L Record: 4-0 - Doug Drabek and John Smiley, Pittsburgh; Terry Mathews, Texas
ERA: 0.76 - Doug Drabek (35.1 IP)...Also, Jeff Russell, Texas, .066 in 13.2 IP.
WHIP: 0.75 - Drabek (Russell's WHIP was higher)
K: 43 - Nolan Ryan, Texas (40.0 IP - he was also 3-0 with a 2.02 ERA, 0.95 WHIP)
SV: 5 - Jay Howell, Los Angeles

Next up: 1907
The Pirates have won the first two, which have both happened to be years in which they had the best record in baseball. They were strong again in 1907, going 91-63, but the 107-win Cubs will be the betting favorites.

11-02-2022, 09:31 PM	#8
ojoe Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 101	1991 OK, if I have any chance of going deep into this project I'm going to have to learn to keep it brief. So let's see if I can pull this off... Year: 1991 Real AL Champion: Minnesota Twins Real NL Champion: Atlanta Braves Real World Series: Twins in 7 - an all-time classic American League Byes: #1 Minnesota Twins, #2 Toronto Blue Jays AL Wild Card Round: #3 Chicago White Sox vs. #6 Detroit Tigers, #4 Texas Rangers vs. #5 Oakland A's National League Byes: #1 Pittsburgh Pirates, #2 Atlanta Braves NL Wild Card Round: #3 St. Louis Cardinals vs. #6 Philadelphia Phillies, #4 Los Angeles Dodgers vs. #5 San Diego Padres Tiebreaker: The first four spots in the AL were easy, but then Oakland, Detroit, and Boston all tied for the 5/6 spots. So I went to head-to-head records, and Boston lost the season series to both the A's and the Tigers, so they were out. Oakland also won their season series against Detroit, so they got the higher seed. Wait, is that National League correct?: No. No it is not. The Dodgers should have been the 3 seed, the Cardinals 5 (they would have tied at 4 with San Diego, but the Padres won the season series). So the Wild Card matchups ended up being 3 v. 4, 5 v. 6. Don't know how that happened but, that kind of mixup is grounds for scrapping the project and running it again with the correct seeding. So why didn't you? Because I didn't catch it until I ran the whole thing, and there was one specific game in the Division Series round that I just couldn't bear to sacrifice. Did anybody get hosed by this? Yep. The Padres. They should have hosted the Wild Card round, but ended up having to go to LA. It did not go as well for them as their recent real-live adventure. Do you hate the Padres? Nope. I'm a Giants fan. We have a common enemy. But that common enemy played in (and won) a crazy game that I didn't want to erase. Any other issues? Yeah, I've been seeding these wrong. I've been matching the 3/6 Wild Card winner against the 1 seed, and the 4/5 winner against. Both leagues in this year's playoffs had examples showing that this is incorrect. I've already run five of these and will correct it going forward...So actually, my NL seeding screw up did result in accurate Division Series matchups. Oh, and I forgot to change the Division Series from 7 games to 5. You're not really making this shorter, are you? Not at the moment, no. Wild Card Predictions and Results AL WC 1: Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers Sim Module Prediction: Rangers in 2 Actual Results: Rangers in 2 Dennis Eckersley blew the save and took the loss in Game 1, and pitched 2 1/3 innings along the way, making him unavailable to close out a 1-run lead in the 9th inning of Game 2. Rick Honeycutt ended up blowing the lead in that game. The winning run scored on a wild pitch. MVP: Rafael Palmeiro, Texas (6/10, .900 SLG) AL WC 2: Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox Sim Module Prediction: Somehow, Tigers in 2...and by a combined score of 11-1 Actual Results: White Sox in 3 MVP: Craig Grebeck, Chicago (4/8, 3 RBI) NL WC 1:San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction: Dodgers in 3 Actual Results: Dodgers in 2 Two-hit, 12K shutout by Kevin Gross in Game 2 - San Diego scored 0 runs on 8 hits for the series MVP: Kevin Gross, Los Angeles NL WC 2: Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals Prediction: Again, the sim module picks a dominating 2-0 sweep for the 6 seed Actual Results: St. Louis in 3 MVP: Pedro Guerrero, St. Louis (4/11, .818 SLG) Division Series Round ALDS 1: Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction: Blue Jays in 6 Actual Results: Rangers in 6 A 3-hit, 12K shutout by Nolan Ryan in Game 6 MVP: Rafael Palmeiro, Texas (8/24...Nolan Ryan was robbed, 2-0, 1.06 ERA, 19K in 17 innings) ALDS 2: Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction: Twins in 7 Actual Results: White Sox in 5 MVP: Frank Thomas, Chicago (8/16, 3 HR, 1.062 SLG) So real World Series winners in this experiment? 0-1 so far NLDS 1: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction: Dodgers in 5 Actual Results: Dodgers in 6 MVP: Eddie Murray, Los Angeles (11/25, .560 SLG)...but LA's real MVP was probably Atlanta closer Alejandro Pena. In Games 1, 3, and 6, Pena pitched 3.0 scoreless innings, allowing 1 hit. Game 2 and 5? 1.1 IP, 7 ER, 2 blown saves. And speaking of which, I mentioned a crazy game that I didn't want to erase. That's Game 2 of this series. LA scored 3 in the top of the 1st, Atlanta answers with 3 in the bottom of the inning. Atlanta takes a 9-4 lead into the 8th...Dodgers score 5 in the 8th, 3 in the 9th. ...So maybe it's not that crazy, just an amazing comeback. By the Dodgers. Wondering now why I got so emotionally attached to that game. Maybe it's that the decisive blow was struck by Eddie Murray and I like him. The line score: NLDS 2: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction: Pirates in 5 Actual Results: Pirates in 4 MVP: Bobby Bonilla, Pittsburgh (10/17, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 1.059 SLG) League Championship Series American League: Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox Prediction: White Sox in 7 Actual Results: Rangers in 5 MVP: Brian Downing, Texas (7/20, 6 RBI) National League: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction: Pirates in 6 Actual Results: Pirates in 4 MVP: Doug Drabek, Pittsburgh (2-0, 1.04 ERA, 11 K, 17.1 IP) World Series: Texas Rangers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction: Pirates in 6 Actual Results: Game 1: Pittsburgh 3, Texas 1 Game 2: Texas 7, Pittsburgh 1 Game 3: Pittsburgh 3, Texas 0 Game 4: Pittsburgh 4, Texas 1 Game 5: Pittsburgh 9, Texas 4 MVP: Barry Bonds, Pittsburgh...only 5/17 with 2 HR...So I think it should've been John Smiley, 2-0, 11 Ks, 1.12 ERA in 16 innings, including 1 ER in 8 IP in the clincher. Recap/Stats/Leaders How did the bye teams do? Pittsburgh won, everybody else lost. So, 1-3 this year and 4-4 after the first two years. Did the real league champs win the pennant? Nope. 0-2 this year, 2-2 so far. Did the real World Series champs win it all? Again, no. This is the first season I've played where there was a real World Series, so 0-1. Hits: 23 - Rafael Palmeiro, Texas Runs: 12 - Julio Franco, Ruben Sierra, Texas; Gary Redus, Pittsburgh HR: 5 - Barry Bonds, Gary Redus, Pittsburgh; Frank Thomas, Chicago RBI: 14 - Gary Redus, Pittsburgh AVG: .377 - Eddie Murray, Los Angeles (56 PA) OBP: .517 - Frank Thomas, Chicago (58 PA) SLG: .732 - Thomas OPS: 1.249 - Thomas SB: 8 - Otis Nixon, Atlanta; Gary Pettis, Texas W/L Record: 4-0 - Doug Drabek and John Smiley, Pittsburgh; Terry Mathews, Texas ERA: 0.76 - Doug Drabek (35.1 IP)...Also, Jeff Russell, Texas, .066 in 13.2 IP. WHIP: 0.75 - Drabek (Russell's WHIP was higher) K: 43 - Nolan Ryan, Texas (40.0 IP - he was also 3-0 with a 2.02 ERA, 0.95 WHIP) SV: 5 - Jay Howell, Los Angeles Next up: 1907 The Pirates have won the first two, which have both happened to be years in which they had the best record in baseball. They were strong again in 1907, going 91-63, but the 107-win Cubs will be the betting favorites. Last edited by ojoe; 11-02-2022 at 09:37 PM.