Before I get into the State of the Team, I figure I'd write it instead after we made a blockbuster trade once the season finished:
Some background: after coming off 4+ WAR seasons in 23 and 24, Arozarena dipped badly last year to 0.9. Can he bounce back? Sure, but it would cost me $16M to find out and 2026 is his final year of team control. Same story with Patino, who had a pair of nearly 3-WAR seasons before struggling big-time in 2025 including a demotion to Durham. And he was going to cost a projected $7.5 in what is also his final year of team control. So I was able to package these two along with a "C" prospect in Cortorreal and a 1/2-star MiLB free agent we signed last year in Diaz for one of the game's top young catchers in Diego Cartaya. (Not sure why Bendix didn't like the deal, he was OK with it until we put the two minor leaguers who won't be missed in it).
Cartaya meanwhile hit 270/333/418, earning 1.2 WAR in only 40 games as the caddy to Will Smith, who had an MVP-quality season and wasn't going anywhere with a big contract. He can do it all from behind the plate: (50/55 contact) (60/60 power) (50/55 eye) and (60/65 defense). Because he's languished for three years as Smith's backup he now qualifies for arbitration (projected at $3.4M this year and he'll get much pricier assuming he has the big year we hope as a regular). Christian Vazquez opted into the final season of his $6M/year deal with us, unsurprisingly after a 217/275/297 year which saw him earn the same 1.2 WAR as Cartaya but in over 3 times as many games, so he'll now be the veteran mentor backup as nobody wanted to offer me anything for him in trade that wasn't a worse contract. Also Rene Pinto will likely head back to Durham after two years as Vazquez's backup, something I'm sure he's not thrilled about but I'd like to keep him around to back Cartaya up in 2027.
So with that deal in the books, here's how our salary situation breaks out, with everyone making more than the minimum listed:
This crop adds up to $91.5M in salary commitments. And we received some good news on the financial front. First:
All these folks keep moving to Florida, so we're no longer a "tiny" market. Possibly as a result, Stu told me this:
So you can do the math - we have just shy of $50M to play with this winter. More like 35-40 of course as I always like to keep a cushion but we may be players in the free agent market as we have some holes to fill (an impact bat, several spots in the bullpen for example). Here's how it shakes out by position:
C: Already discussed at length above with regard to the Cartaya deal.
1B:
Curtis Mead had lost the job to
Andrew Vaughn after 2 1/2 seasons of 1.5-1.7 WAR ball, then Vaughn got hurt and then Mead got hurt. Both are back, and both are righties so it's not like I can platoon them. I'd like more production out of the position and I'm not sure that
Kyle Manzardo, who took over for them late in the year, is the answer either.
2B:
Ozzie Albies is back, and although he was brutal in the field the bat is still good enough to earn him around 3 WAR overall.
SS: Same thing goes for
Wander Franco, only a better bat than Albies.
3B:
Casey Schmitt may not win Rookie of the Year thanks to Elly De La Cruz's monster 2nd half with Detroit but he had a great year (.258-27-107) with solid defense so he's entrenched.
IF:
Jeremiah Jackson hit 283/339/520 when he got to play although he missed a month or two with injury. When healthy he's the perfect backup IF.
Alika Williams and
Royce Lewis played a lot last year with Wander, Albies and Jackson all hurt at the same time but neither can hit much and will be back at Durham, although I believe Lewis is out of options.
Brooks Lee, who hit something like .340 at Durham, has to go on the 40-man this year and therefore will be an alternative as well.
LF: Kind of open right now.
Zach DeLoach is a decent hitter and probably deserves to play as the long side of a platoon (with
Heliot Ramos perhaps?). That's where we are right now until and unless we make an acquisition.
CF: We're going to need one, at least early.
Josh Lowe had a great bounceback year before he too got hurt (man we had a lot of injuries) and won't be back until June or July. He spent most of it in LF with Arozarena in CF but could move back here where he can provide league-average defense. The
Michael Taylor signing came in handy but he's a free agent and he didn't hit much although he played great D. Maybe we try and bring him or a similar veteran back as a stopgap.
RF: Our revolving door of option-year superstars which saw Juan Soto man the position in 2024 and Kyle Tucker last year revolves again with
Joshua Mears the apparent incumbent, but like in LF we might find another Soto/Tucker-type since we have money to burn and we will need a true impact bat. Heliot can play here too
DH: This could be the odd OF out or Vaughn/Mead/Manzardo or someone else entirely.
Rotation: Assuming everyone stays healthy (a big IF) this is one area where everyone comes back as it should be
McClanahan/Castillo/Rasmussen/Swanda/Bradley.
Shane Baz really struggled last year but still has some potential, and guys like
Forrest Whitley and
JP Sears can start but they're more needed in the bullpen.
Bullpen: Well our pretty good pen of last year is just about completely decimated as ace closer
Pete Fairbanks, setup men
Ryan Pressly and
Josh Taylor, and lefty middle man
Tanner Scott are all free agents. Returnees include
JP Feyereisen, who was up and down last year, lefty
Jovani Moran, who was brilliant and can be used in a higher-leverage role, multi-inning "Steady Eddie"
Christopher Gau,
Colby White and the aforementioned Whitley and Sears. This will probably be the year
Sandy Gaston gets a full-time big-league gig, and
JJ Goss is also ready to contribute. Lefty
Ian Seymour also could have a shot. I've no interest in bringing Pressly back after his miserable 2nd half but I'd love to re-sign Fairbanks (who wants 4/44), Taylor or Scott if their markets are reasonable, and I will of course be looking at other FA relievers.
So the tl;dr version of our goals for the offseason now that we've upgraded the catching slot are:
* find an impact bat to replace Kyle Tucker, either at 1B or OF
* find someone to start in CF for at least the first half of the year
* add at least 1-2 top-notch relievers