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At this point, since this affects modifiers other than sac bunts, and since it's affecting various seasons throughout history and different modifiers in completely unpredictable and extreme ways, I'm going to leave this to the OOTP Developments bug report.
Lukas gave the bug report a preliminary look and replied, but now I've linked him to this thread for more details and verification.
I hope this gets some serious attention because no one should have to adjust tendencies to get the game to calculate proper modifiers, and it would be impossible to chase this across different years and different modifiers, especially with no way to know whether your modifiers are "correct" and which ones are going to be affected from year to year.
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