https://ibb.co/0mBZSCB
Here is a plot of the new model in action. The blue line represents the intersection of xG and EVG, so players close to the line are performing as expected. You can see there is still plenty of variance, which is to be expected -- we can't be perfectly accurate, otherwise we're cheating. But notice the heavy concentration of players near the line from 0 to 10 xG and EVG -- this indicates that we have improved accuracy for players who are not prolific goal scorers. You can also see that there are a large number of players who stick close to the line as they pass 10 xG/EVG. This again shows that we are properly accounting for stats that are important for elite scorers when predicting their xG.