[ArquimedezPozo]

Phoenix Firebirds, 89-65, 706 runs scored (2), 594 runs allowed (4)

Phoenix comes into this Series with a chip on its shoulder. The franchise broke a 29 season drought with its first Championship Series appearance in 2036, but lost, and then did it again last season. They have now won the D4 West for the third straight year, and come into this series as the heavy favorites with a top-notch offense and an excellent stable of arms, including future Hall of Fame closer Bob Paul. Phoenix is one of the few teams in the game that has no real holes, though one could criticize their defense. Still, it’s hard not to see them as prohibitive favorites to finally take home their first Championship and secure a return to Division 3 after next season.

Top position players:

• Matt Armstrong, 2B - Armstrong was once again quietly and consistently excellent this season, and may walk away with an MVP trophy because of it. Armstrong has been in the league for five seasons, and has been at least a 4.5 WAR player in each of them - a 5+ WAR player in his last four seasons, in fact. The big shift this year was an increase in his power game, hitting over 20 homers (he had 24) for the first time in his career. He finished at .250/.365/.493, a 136 wRC+ that, when combined with strong and effortless defense, gave him 6 WAR and his best overall year.
• Alex Rivera, RF - Rivera, who came to Phoenix in an offseason trade from Chicago, missed big chunks of the season twice - he strained an abdominal muscle in Spring Training which delayed the season for him, and reinjured it in July, keeping him mostly out of commission until late August. But when he was in the lineup, he was hitting: .254/.374/.549, with 18 homers in about half a season worth of plate appearances. He has an outstanding batting eye, when he swings he usually makes contact, and when he makes good contact the ball goes far. He’s been healthy through September, and slugged .618 with a third of his season’s homers, so he should be ready to contribute.
• Fred Levang, DH - Levang is as streaky as they come, and this year his streaks came in April (.276/.389/.500, 2 HR, 11 RBI) and especially July (.389/.511/.750, 5 HR, 18 RBI, Batter of the Month). Unfortunately for Phoenix, September was his worst month, as the DH hit just .155/.284/.227 in 26 games. If July Levang shows up, look out.

Top pitchers:

• Bob Paul, CL - It’s not often a D4 guy gets the kind of media attention Paul had this year, as he has put up one of his best relief seasons at age 40. Though back issues kept him off the mound much of September, part of that was cautionary for the Firebirds, as it became clearer that they would indeed win the Conference. Paul is expected to be back and healthy for the Championship series, and good thing for Phoenix: the future Hall of Famer struck out 94 in 72 innings while walking only 11, and giving up just 4 homers. His 1.86 FIP is his best in a full season since 2033, and he allowed just 6.6 runners per nine, the best full season mark of his entire career. He is a devastating end of game weapon; expect him to make a difference in at least one game this series.
• Kerry Chumley, SP - Chumley may just be Phoenix’s next ace; at 25, he is still feeling out some of his stuff (especially his changeup). But he has solid control, a plus fastball, a slider that can be an out pitch, and a sinker that can get outs when used strategically. Chumley was 4th in ERA at 2.67 this season, and tied Willie Rodriguez for third in Wins, but advanced metrics aren’t quite as kind to him. Still, he will get the ball in Game 1, and the Firebirds hope he can be the hero they need.
• Dustin Gaba, SP - another of Phoenix’s good young arms, Gaba has an impressive six pitch arsenal, with a quality fastball/sinker/curve combo that makes him a good groundball pitcher. He doesn’t get a ton of Ks - just 20% of batters this season. But he shows good control, and is stingy with the homerun ball, allowing just .5 per nine. His FIP is the best among all of Phoenix’s strong starters.

Pittsburgh Crawfords, 81-73, 617 runs scored (8), 597 runs allowed (5)

The drought is over, the curse is lifted, the clouds have cleared: the Pittsburgh Crawfords are Conference winners for the first time in NABF history. Pittsburgh, which arrived in D4 after Cycle 4 and has stayed there since, has rarely even come close to a title; in fact, this is just their eighth winning season. It took a historically weak D4 East in which Pittsburgh was the only team with a positive run differential (at just +18). Their offense is weak to say the least, but they can pitch, and allowed just three more runs this year than Phoenix. If the chips fall right, the most hapless team in the NABF could be champs - they’re closer than they’ve ever been.

Top position players:

• Manny Rodriguez, LF - Rodriguez is the only real threat in this lineup, with a season line of .293/.382/.456, third on the team with 13 homers. Ramirez is 35 now, and has lost a step, but he’s still a smart baserunner who gets on base, has a bit of pop, and can reach the gaps (33 doubles this year, second-highest total on the team). Rodriguez made his fourth All-Star team this year.
• Mark Butler, 1B - Butler is the biggest power threat on a club that ranked 9th in D4 in homers and seventh in slugging. He was the only Crawford to crack 20 homers, getting exactly that number on the season’s final day, when he hit two. He closed the season with a .248/.296/.462 line.
• Gary Stophel, 2B/SP - Stophel is a solid two-way player, serving as the team’s #4 starter and starting second baseman on days he’s not pitching. Stophel was acquired midseason during the Athletics’ fire sale, and he immediately helped Pittsburgh plug two holes, one in the rotation and the other at second. As a position player, Stophel is an excellent defender, with a little pop at the plate and good patience.

Top pitchers:

• Joel Ortiz, SP - Ortiz, just 23 and in his first full season, has an electric arm with a plus fastball and split, and a plus-plus Changeup that rivals the best in the game. While he is still fine-tuning his control, at his best he’s capable of throwing all three for strikes and for strikeouts. Ortiz is known for his hard work and the club sees him as a frontline starter. They’re handing him the ball in Game 1 of the most important series in team history - in part because they want to put a flamethrower up against Phoenix, but also because they trust him that much. Ortiz led D4 in K/9 all season, and in every individual month of the season; down the stretch in September he put up a 1.99 ERA with a 3.14 FIP while striking out 31% of his opponents.
• Karunamaya Nema, SP - with Matt Hahn’s September implosion, Nema is now the rotation anchor, and while he didn’t match his extraordinary August (a 0.42 ERA over 43 innings!) he certainly pitched like an ace in September. On the strength of those last two months, Nema wound up with a 2.97 ERA and 3.25 FIP (86 FIP-) this season, striking out over a quarter of the batters he faced. Joel Ortiz will get the ball in Game 1, but Nema will get the nod in Game 2, giving the Crawfords two frontline starters under 26 years old.
• Matt Hahn, RP - Until recently, Hahn was a critical member of this starting rotation. But a collapse in September has relegated him to bullpen duty for the Championship Series, which he has supported publicly but which has hit him hard privately, according to some club sources. Hahn declined in most measurable ways in September, though there’s no evidence of injury; the team believes he will respond well to bullpen duty and can play a valuable role there before returning to the rotation in 2039 - hopefully with a ring.

Prediction: Phoenix in 5 - The third time is likely to be the charm for the Firebirds, a complete team with the kinds of qualities a championship club has - a dynamic offense that can kill you in several ways, a solid starting rotation, and a nasty bullpen ace. Pittsburgh certainly has a shot, and its young arms are intriguing, but the safe money is on Phoenix in a short series.