[Pelican]

Whoops! Just noticed that my 75-83 Phillies have a Pythagorean Record of 86-72, good enough to qualify for the Wild Card playoffs. The difference of eleven games is the greatest of any team. (The Pirates at 102-56 are nine games better than their predicted 93-65.)

My first reaction is that I must be a poor manager. The AI probably thinks that it could have won 86 games at this point. At least, that's one way I would interpret the Pythagorean calculation.

However, I suspect something else is at work here. My guess is that this calculation takes into account the performance of the players now on the team - including stats accumulated while playing for other teams, earlier in the season. For a team with many transaction like my 1971 Phillies, this projection reflects how this team should have performed, if all these players were on the Phillies for the whole year. Unfortunately, these Phillies started the season with some real clunkers - Don Money and Larry Hisle underperforming badly - plus Bobby Tolan hurt, Mike Schmidt and Greg Luzinski still in the minors. Those stats are no longer included in the calculation. Or so I understand it.

So, what the Pythagorean Record suggests is how these current guys would have collectively performed, if they had all been healthy and on the Phillies all season. I'll take that as a tribute to the wheeling and dealing and promotion I have done. And, a good indication of where this team should be next season.

Unfortunately, the above analysis fails to explain why this team has not performed better, since midseason, with all of the deals and promotions in place. That could be the poor managerial decisions.