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Art Deco · 06-11-2023, 03:48 PM

It's going to be an interesting offseason as we have a lot of talent but very few free agents meaning we're going to have a 40-man roster crunch and a lot of decisions to make up and down the lineup and on the pitching staff.

Fortunately money's not going to be a big factor as Stu Sternberg has generously allotted $160M for payroll. Don't really want to go near this but we'll see how things go. This is how our obligations stand given the current makeup of the roster:

This group plus the minimum salary guys adds up to a projected $129M but I don't plan on keeping everyone here. Randy Arozarena and his $11.3M are gone, however unpopular that might be with the fans as while he had a decent second half last year he didn't crack .400 SLG and we have potential replacements in either Jackson Chourio (whom we would have to add to the 40-man although we don't need to yet) or Brock Jones (who does have to be added or could be taken in Rule 5). Also we got by fine without Pete Fairbanks for most of last season and can save $7M without him, especially since we're spending nearly $15M on the bullpen back end of S.Rodriguez/Doval/Adam. And we can save about $2M on Ryan Thompson, who was outrighted off the 40-man last season. So there's $20M in savings before we do anything else, although we might use some of that in what we get in return for Arozarena and Fairbanks.

A position-by-position outlook:

C: Last year we went into the offseason with Patrick Bailey set as the catcher and in need of a backup. We then re-signed Christian Bethancourt and he wound up playing so well after a poor start by Bailey that he took over the job. Then Bethancourt got hurt late in the season and Bailey ended up raking in his place. This time around Bethancourt wants a 2/21 extension so we're not going to get him for $1.8M again. With no other catcher on the 40-man, we're going to have to find a backup with defense whiz Blake Hunt the leading in-house candidate right now.

1B: Miguel Vargas is the man although he dropped off to 18 homers after 25 and 23 the seasons before. You'd like a few more homers out of your 1B but that's OK when Vargas hits his usual .300 with 30 doubles.

2B: This is Wander Franco's position now as he was moved there mid-season and provided decent defense after giving runs away (-8.8 ZR in half a season) at SS.

SS: We have quite a few candidates for the position. Jose Devers kind of won the job late last year hitting well over .300 before getting hurt, we have the guy whose job he took in Masyn Winn (and whom we traded Brandon Lowe for), and then we still have Luisangel Acuna, who's likely more of a utility guy. And then we have prospect Carson Williams, who actually was with the big club in September and the playoffs with Devers and Acuna hurt. Williams will likely be ticketed for Durham since he came right up from AA and still needs to work on his hit tool. There's another Williams at Durham in Alika, but although he has a good glove he isn't that great a hitter. He's a Rule 5-eligible guy we'll try and deal.

3B: Elly De La Cruz is the man here and while he had a very good year overall he did tail off badly in August/September before getting hot again in the final week (and homering in the playoffs).

IF: Winn and Devers can play all over the infield so the loser of that battle (probably Winn) becomes our utility infielder.

LF: The big question mark with Arozarena departing. Chourio is MLB-ready but makes our 40-man crunch worse while Jones is coming off a 50 (53 with the playoffs) homer season at Durham.

CF: Jose Siri has had the job the last three years and has provided Gold Glove-caliber defense, but he's turned 30 and last season his ZR was 7.5, the first time in that span he's been below double digits. He's not a great hitter either but makes up for it with 15-HR pop and 30-SB speed. I don't mind paying him $5.5M next year but he does seem to be a declining asset so if a more interesting alternative pops up I could make a change. Kameron Misner is next on the depth chart at CF but he's using a 40-man roster spot I'm probably going to need for someone else so he's a likely DFA candidate.

RF: Mason Auer is the starter here but he disappointed a bit, both in the field (2.7 ZR with Chicago, 0.9 with us) and at the plate (about 30 points less BA, 50 points lower OBP than with the Cubs). He's still young, on the way up, and can also play a credible CF, so he's not going anywhere.

OF: Alec Burleson is our 4th OF right now but he doesn't have any kind of real hold on the position. Cade Doughty, who hit 305/365/504 primarily against lefties and can also play 2B and 3B as well as the corner OF positions, has a roster spot and will return.

DH: I'm not sure I did Jace Jung and Kyle Manzardo any favors by constantly flipping them in and out of the lineup based on who had the hot hand, as the two ended up combining for 34 HR and 107 RBI (that's in about 750 AB as they often played together and Jung played a lot against lefties, moreso in the first half) although they combined to hit about .245. With Doughty no longer platooning in RF as he did early last season with the since-traded Josh Lowe, I need to get him some DH ABs so keeping Jung and Manzardo seems like a waste and one of them could be dealt.

SP: Drew Rasmussen was great and it's going to be reflected in his pricey arbitration number as he enters his free agent year, and if Shane McClanahan is healthy after his AC joint procedure we have a good top two, and that's not even counting Cy Young candidate Ryan Pepiot. Pepiot and fellow hard throwers Matt Brash and Jack Perkins are five-and-dive guys with low stamina who are productive when they pitch but can't go deep. Nevertheless that gives up 5 starters and then we still have to pay Jeffrey Springs $10M, who's capable of starting but was so much better in long relief, especially paired with the short-stamina guys. Other starting candidates include Shane Baz (also better suited to long relief after struggling in the rotation) and Matt Canterino (ditto). Then we have prospects Joel Diaz and Fernando Costume, both of whom are capable of pitching in MLB but are ticketed for Durham since neither has to go on the 40-man. So the league's top staff returns intact with plenty of depth. EDIT: Just a second, I totally forgot about Taj Bradley, who should be in the rotation now that's he come back from TJS and made some appearances late last season. He needs to factor in somewhere, maybe with Perkins going back to the bullpen. Another surplus that's a good problem to have.

Bullpen: As mentioned the back end will be fine with Seranthony/Doval/Adam returning, Baz and Springs should fill the long roles (EDIT: and maybe Perkins), and the likes of Jovani Moran, Garrett Cleavinger, Hayden Juenger and Colby White in middle relief all are back and are all very good.

The 40-man roster: Here's where things get hairy. We're only going to have a few openings due to free agency, but Bethancourt has to replaced with another backup C so that's not going to help, and we need to bring McClanahan and Devers off the 60-day IL. And we're going to have find room for the following: Junior Caminero, Brock Jones, Blake Hunt, Alex Ayala Jr., Anthony Molina, Graham Stinson, Israel Mateo, Willy Vazquez, and Franklin Dacosta, none of whom I really want to lose. So as much as I want to bring up Chourio to play LF, he doesn't have to be added to the 40-man so it would be at the expense of someone else. Cooper Criswell and Kameron Misner will probably be waived off the 40-man to make some room as will vet Evan Phillips (who was added as a possible playoff piece but never used) but we're still going to have to make deals.

So here are the objectives for the offseason:

1. Find a backup or job-share catcher to go with Bailey.
2. Make room on the 40-man or trade some of the Rule 5-eligibles.
3. Look into some extensions, especially McClanahan although in his case that will have to wait until spring when we see whether his ratings get downgraded after his AC joint procedure.
4. Perhaps get a big-bopping OF who's more of an offensive force than Auer or Siri without sacrificing too much on defense. The lineup does feel a little light and with some money to spend and prospects to deal we can maybe find someone so we don't end up scoring 6 runs in a playoff series like we did this year.

06-11-2023, 03:48 PM	#40
Art Deco Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 6,930	2025-26 Offsesaon: State of the Team It's going to be an interesting offseason as we have a lot of talent but very few free agents meaning we're going to have a 40-man roster crunch and a lot of decisions to make up and down the lineup and on the pitching staff. Fortunately money's not going to be a big factor as Stu Sternberg has generously allotted $160M for payroll. Don't really want to go near this but we'll see how things go. This is how our obligations stand given the current makeup of the roster: This group plus the minimum salary guys adds up to a projected $129M but I don't plan on keeping everyone here. Randy Arozarena and his $11.3M are gone, however unpopular that might be with the fans as while he had a decent second half last year he didn't crack .400 SLG and we have potential replacements in either Jackson Chourio (whom we would have to add to the 40-man although we don't need to yet) or Brock Jones (who does have to be added or could be taken in Rule 5). Also we got by fine without Pete Fairbanks for most of last season and can save $7M without him, especially since we're spending nearly $15M on the bullpen back end of S.Rodriguez/Doval/Adam. And we can save about $2M on Ryan Thompson, who was outrighted off the 40-man last season. So there's $20M in savings before we do anything else, although we might use some of that in what we get in return for Arozarena and Fairbanks. A position-by-position outlook: C: Last year we went into the offseason with Patrick Bailey set as the catcher and in need of a backup. We then re-signed Christian Bethancourt and he wound up playing so well after a poor start by Bailey that he took over the job. Then Bethancourt got hurt late in the season and Bailey ended up raking in his place. This time around Bethancourt wants a 2/21 extension so we're not going to get him for $1.8M again. With no other catcher on the 40-man, we're going to have to find a backup with defense whiz Blake Hunt the leading in-house candidate right now. 1B: Miguel Vargas is the man although he dropped off to 18 homers after 25 and 23 the seasons before. You'd like a few more homers out of your 1B but that's OK when Vargas hits his usual .300 with 30 doubles. 2B: This is Wander Franco's position now as he was moved there mid-season and provided decent defense after giving runs away (-8.8 ZR in half a season) at SS. SS: We have quite a few candidates for the position. Jose Devers kind of won the job late last year hitting well over .300 before getting hurt, we have the guy whose job he took in Masyn Winn (and whom we traded Brandon Lowe for), and then we still have Luisangel Acuna, who's likely more of a utility guy. And then we have prospect Carson Williams, who actually was with the big club in September and the playoffs with Devers and Acuna hurt. Williams will likely be ticketed for Durham since he came right up from AA and still needs to work on his hit tool. There's another Williams at Durham in Alika, but although he has a good glove he isn't that great a hitter. He's a Rule 5-eligible guy we'll try and deal. 3B: Elly De La Cruz is the man here and while he had a very good year overall he did tail off badly in August/September before getting hot again in the final week (and homering in the playoffs). IF: Winn and Devers can play all over the infield so the loser of that battle (probably Winn) becomes our utility infielder. LF: The big question mark with Arozarena departing. Chourio is MLB-ready but makes our 40-man crunch worse while Jones is coming off a 50 (53 with the playoffs) homer season at Durham. CF: Jose Siri has had the job the last three years and has provided Gold Glove-caliber defense, but he's turned 30 and last season his ZR was 7.5, the first time in that span he's been below double digits. He's not a great hitter either but makes up for it with 15-HR pop and 30-SB speed. I don't mind paying him $5.5M next year but he does seem to be a declining asset so if a more interesting alternative pops up I could make a change. Kameron Misner is next on the depth chart at CF but he's using a 40-man roster spot I'm probably going to need for someone else so he's a likely DFA candidate. RF: Mason Auer is the starter here but he disappointed a bit, both in the field (2.7 ZR with Chicago, 0.9 with us) and at the plate (about 30 points less BA, 50 points lower OBP than with the Cubs). He's still young, on the way up, and can also play a credible CF, so he's not going anywhere. OF: Alec Burleson is our 4th OF right now but he doesn't have any kind of real hold on the position. Cade Doughty, who hit 305/365/504 primarily against lefties and can also play 2B and 3B as well as the corner OF positions, has a roster spot and will return. DH: I'm not sure I did Jace Jung and Kyle Manzardo any favors by constantly flipping them in and out of the lineup based on who had the hot hand, as the two ended up combining for 34 HR and 107 RBI (that's in about 750 AB as they often played together and Jung played a lot against lefties, moreso in the first half) although they combined to hit about .245. With Doughty no longer platooning in RF as he did early last season with the since-traded Josh Lowe, I need to get him some DH ABs so keeping Jung and Manzardo seems like a waste and one of them could be dealt. SP: Drew Rasmussen was great and it's going to be reflected in his pricey arbitration number as he enters his free agent year, and if Shane McClanahan is healthy after his AC joint procedure we have a good top two, and that's not even counting Cy Young candidate Ryan Pepiot. Pepiot and fellow hard throwers Matt Brash and Jack Perkins are five-and-dive guys with low stamina who are productive when they pitch but can't go deep. Nevertheless that gives up 5 starters and then we still have to pay Jeffrey Springs $10M, who's capable of starting but was so much better in long relief, especially paired with the short-stamina guys. Other starting candidates include Shane Baz (also better suited to long relief after struggling in the rotation) and Matt Canterino (ditto). Then we have prospects Joel Diaz and Fernando Costume, both of whom are capable of pitching in MLB but are ticketed for Durham since neither has to go on the 40-man. So the league's top staff returns intact with plenty of depth. EDIT: Just a second, I totally forgot about Taj Bradley, who should be in the rotation now that's he come back from TJS and made some appearances late last season. He needs to factor in somewhere, maybe with Perkins going back to the bullpen. Another surplus that's a good problem to have. Bullpen: As mentioned the back end will be fine with Seranthony/Doval/Adam returning, Baz and Springs should fill the long roles (EDIT: and maybe Perkins), and the likes of Jovani Moran, Garrett Cleavinger, Hayden Juenger and Colby White in middle relief all are back and are all very good. The 40-man roster: Here's where things get hairy. We're only going to have a few openings due to free agency, but Bethancourt has to replaced with another backup C so that's not going to help, and we need to bring McClanahan and Devers off the 60-day IL. And we're going to have find room for the following: Junior Caminero, Brock Jones, Blake Hunt, Alex Ayala Jr., Anthony Molina, Graham Stinson, Israel Mateo, Willy Vazquez, and Franklin Dacosta, none of whom I really want to lose. So as much as I want to bring up Chourio to play LF, he doesn't have to be added to the 40-man so it would be at the expense of someone else. Cooper Criswell and Kameron Misner will probably be waived off the 40-man to make some room as will vet Evan Phillips (who was added as a possible playoff piece but never used) but we're still going to have to make deals. So here are the objectives for the offseason: 1. Find a backup or job-share catcher to go with Bailey. 2. Make room on the 40-man or trade some of the Rule 5-eligibles. 3. Look into some extensions, especially McClanahan although in his case that will have to wait until spring when we see whether his ratings get downgraded after his AC joint procedure. 4. Perhaps get a big-bopping OF who's more of an offensive force than Auer or Siri without sacrificing too much on defense. The lineup does feel a little light and with some money to spend and prospects to deal we can maybe find someone so we don't end up scoring 6 runs in a playoff series like we did this year. Last edited by Art Deco; 06-11-2023 at 03:57 PM.