BNN Weekly Report
This Week in the CBO, BMU, and GBRL
by Nat Wright-Kawolski
23 September 2303
CBO Playoff Preview
Scouts from a few teams not in the playoffs teamed up with the OSA scouts to create dynamic measurements to try to predict which teams have the best chance to move on in the playoffs. Here are a couple and then some of the measurements of where the scouts see the playoffs going.
After, we will preview the Play-in Round of the playoffs, including today's game in Diamond City between the Swatters and the FHE Yao Guai.
Positional Quality Points (Note: Lower QP scores are better)
Atom - 112 QP - Overall Average: 10th - Highest-ranked Position(s): SS + CF - 3rd
Concord - 112 QP - Overall Average: 10th - Highest-ranked Position(s): CL - 3rd
County Crossing - 131 QP - Overall Average: 12th - Highest-ranked Position(s): C + RF - 1st
Diamond City - 111 QP - Overall Average: 10th - Highest-ranked Position(s): CL - 1st
FHE - 126 QP - Overall Average: 11th - Highest-ranked Position(s): C - 2nd
Fort Hagen -136 QP - Overall Average: 12th - Highest-ranked Position(s): CF - 1st
Nordhagen Beach - 116 QP - Overall Average: 11th - Highest-ranked Position(s): CF + RF + SP + RP - 2nd
Roxbury - 106 QP - Overall Average: 10th - Highest-ranked Position(s): SP - 1st
Sunshine Tidings - 157 QP - Overall Average: 14th - Highest-ranked Position(s): C - 5th
University Point - 100 QP - Overall Average: 9th - Highest-ranked Position(s): 1B + RP - 1st
Top Three Starters Comparisons Ranked
Rank - Team - OSA Scout Ratings Total - Top-rated Pitcher
1. Roxbury - 198 - Best Starter: Nuke Laloosh (13-2, 1.73)
2. Nordhagen Beach - 194 - Best Starter: Beachboy Nut (19-8, 3.03)
3. Atom - 188 - Best Starter: Scruffy Taguchi (15-5, 2.43)
4. County Crossing - 187 - Best Starter: Gavin Eviritts (17-3, 3.41)
5. Diamond City - 185 - Best Starter: Sheng Kawolski (13-6, 2.90)
6. Fort Hagen - 177 - Best Starter: Derek Green (16-8, 2.59)
7. Concord - 167 - Best Starter: Emperry Alizm (13-8, 3.15)
8. Sunshine Tidings - 165 - Best Starter: Brian Bridges (8-13, 3.52)
9. FHE - 163 - Best Starter: Tristan Marble (11-11, 2.91)
10. University Point - 158 - Best Starter: Phlip Wallace (14-4, 3.10)
Runs Produced vs Runs Allowed
Team - Runs Produced - Runs Scored - Run Differential
Atom - 637 - 514 - +123
Concord - 526 - 485 - +41
County Crossing - 651 - 400 - +251
Diamond City - 589 - 494 - +95
FHE - 602 - 478 - +124
Fort Hagen - 539 - 495 - +44
Nordhagen Beach - 605 - 476 - +129
Roxbury - 653 - 369 - +284
Sunshine Tidings - 549 - 487 - +62
University Point - 643 - 507 - +136
Overall Championship Chances
Atom: 11.15%
Concord: 6.57%
County Crossing: 14.36%
Diamond City: 9.18%
FHE: 7.86%
Fort Hagen: 7.92%
Nordhagen Beach: 12.02%
Roxbury: 16.38%
Sunshine Tidings: 7.72%
University Point: 6.85%
A Few Notes
It is surprising that the #2 seeds in each association are the bottom two predicted based on the input numbers of the combined scouts. University Point has the worst starting pitching staff, but it also has the best offensive talent of any team. Still, it will be hard for the Deathclaws to outblast such a strong field in the SCA.
The Institute League is considered to be the weakest league, with none of the three teams expected to outlast either County Crossing nor Nordhagen Beach from the Brotherhood League.
Although they did not complete the regular season with the CBO's top record, the Roxbury Rad Sox are the consensus top team. The Sox are healthy and have a killer pitching staff that will wear out most teams' offenses.
In the end, these would be the expected outcomes based on the scouting numbers:
NCA
Shroud over Chemists
Party Boys over Radstags
Bloodbugs over Shroud
Bloodbugs over Boys
SCA
Swatters over Yao Guai
Cats over Claws
Sox over Swatters
Sox over Cats
Sole Survivor Series
Sox over Bugs
SCA Playoffs - #5 FHE Yao Guai (69-52) vs #4 Diamond City Swatters (70-51)
Season Series
Diamond City 7, FHE 6
June 12-14 @DC: FHE 5-4, FHE 6-3, DC 7-3
July 3-5 @FHE: DC 4-2, FHE 7-3, FHE 8-4
Sept 4-6 @DC: DC 7-6, FHE 6-5, DC 6-1
Sept 11-13 @ FHE: DC 2-1, FHE 6-5, DC 3-1
Sept 21 @DC: DC 3-0 (tiebreaker game for seeding)
Analysis
The Diamond City Swatters have been one of the top teams in the CBO for the past five years, and there is no difference between that success this year. However, the steam train that is Roxbury toppled the Sox from atop the Railroad League. Not only that, but both University Point and Atom have been consistently strong all season, leaving the Swatters in a delicate position of needing to fight up to win the championship.
For FHE, they are entering their first playoff appearance since before the CBO was formed as a singular league. The Yao Guai last tasted the playoffs in 2297 when they entered as the #7 overall seed, defeated Goodneighbor and then got swept by the eventual champions, the Oberland T-51s.
Although the Swatters trailed FHE for most of the season, there are definite talent gaps overall between the two teams, all in favor of Diamond City. Offensively, the Swatters are full of decent for-average hitters and a lot of good power all around. 1B Oren Gep (.299/47/107), a potential MVP this season, was the team's Triple Crown winner. While Diamond City finished 6th in the SCA in home runs, their lineup has six players who can go deep at any point, all finishing with 10 or more home runs. RF Waze Waiting (.275/20/67) and 2B Jim Synthseeker (.274/19/65) are powerhouses batting on each side of Gep.
The pitching staff is where the Swatters typically start to distance themselves, but they were not fully themselves this season. Despite having one of the top starters in the CBO in SP Sheng Kawolski (13-6, 2.90), Diamond City was 7th in Starters ERA in 2303. In the playoffs, though, none of the three starters were above that 3.76 mark. X10-44 Mannson (14-7, 3.66) and City Moore (12-10, 3.70) are relatively successful. The bullpen features CL Josh Samm (28 SV, 3.57) who struggled to keep batters from scoring the past two seasons. Their best bullpen pitcher this season was Jason Worry (3-2, 2.71).
For FHE, the offense was a strong one, helping the Yao Guai to score a lot of runs. RF Joe Rathmann (.296/24/82) is the team leader. Several other players had solid seasons in either average, power, or both: LF Po Greenzone (.225/33/106), C Tyler Shoemaker (.284/12/65), and 3B Joel Mutfruit (.257/20/84), among them. Trade acquisition, 1B Bryan Assman (.225/15/52), is an interesting one. After being one of the CBO's stars, including winning the SCA's Nuka-Hitter Award in 2298 and 2299, Assman has been struggling but started to bring his average back up after being traded from Goodneighbor.
The starting pitching staff does not have the same talent as the Swatters, but the acquisition of SP Tristan Marble (11-11, 2.91) from Oberland helped to close that gap. Josh Hugs (15-8, 3.65) and Jerry Weisman (10-13, 3.74) round out the SCA's 3rd-best starters. Interestingly, the Yao Guai moved Taco LaVergne (13-6, 2.88) to the bullpen for the playoffs, which could backfire on them because of his success all season. CL Tom Mannequin (30 SV, 2.09), acquired in an offseason trade from Nordhagen Beach, has been a difference maker in the 3rd-ranked bullpen.
Prediction
The Swatters are the experienced team and FHE is entering this race. Expect Diamond City to take this one in two games, 2-0.
NCA Playoffs - #5 Sunshine Tidings Chemists (59-61) vs #4 Fort Hagen Silver Shroud (64-57)
Season Series
Fort Hagen 7, Sunshine Tidings 5
July 17-19 @FtH: FtH 6-5, FtH 4-3, FtH 9-8
Aug 7-9 @FtH: FtH 4-0, ST 2-0, ST 4-3
Aug 14-16 @ ST: FtH 8-6, ST 5-0, ST 5-4
Sept 18-20 @ST: FtH 3-1, ST 5-0, FtH 6-1
Analysis
Fort Hagen and Sunshine Tidings meet in the 4-5 matchup between the playoff veterans and the playoff newcomers. The Silver Shroud finished behind the Concord Radstags for the second time in the past three seasons after losing the tiebreaker game, 5-1, on Monday.
The Shroud were middling in both runs scored and runs allowed, but those numbers are contrary to what actually happened. For the second straight season, Fort Hagen suffered a larger number of injuries, which includes one of their star pitchers, Mike Cartrette (4-2, 2.45), who is active for the playoffs. SP Derek Green (16-8, 2.59) and SP Matt Hope (12-14, 4.67) round out the starting staff, with Brent Hooker (8-9, 3.48) and Jim Livermore (9-11, 4.34) both moving to the bullpen. CL Kevin Marsh (32 SV, 1.66) came out of nowhere to become the closer and a good one at that to put him in contention for the Fallon's Reliever Award. Former closer, Curtis Thriceshot (1-0, 3.47), made the move to middle reliever.
On offense, Fort Hagen has one superstar, but the rest of the lineup could use development or offseason upgrades. CF Ben Pawlak (.348/18/67) has it all and is considered the CBO's best center fielder. 1B Jim Tiller (.333/17/75) is good, especially with getting on base, but his power is considerably lower than the CBO's average first baseman. LF Ginger Rogers (.224/16/42) is among the CBO's worst cleanup hitters. It is evident that the Shroud need to hold teams low in runs to have a chance to advance.
For the Chemists, overall numbers look a bit better than Fort Hagen. Their offense is led by the CBO's strangest statistics in a leadoff hitter, CF Ricky Ticky Laughy (.253/31/75). Sunshine Tidings' best hitter for average, LF B.J. Perez (.319/4/36) is out for the series with an injury. Rookie OF Baktu DaWell (.291/19/58), the likely Red Rocket Rookie Award winner, has been a solid fit-in piece for the offense. Other standouts include RF Brightsun Ramos (.309/16/43), but he may be out in 2304, and SS Paul Warwick (.288/8/57).
For pitching, neither the Starters ERA (6th at 3.90) nor Bullpen ERA (8th at 4.17) was good, but the Chemists finished 4th in runs allowed. Their pitching is the main reason that Sunshine Tidings is not considered a true contender, making us at BNN surprised that they are receiving so much betting action. SP Mike Rubric (9-12, 4.21) is the "ace" with SP Brian Bridges (8-13, 3.52) following him. However, the amazing results that helped Sunshine Tidings reach the playoffs is Bill Sarnacki (19-3, 3.19) who just kept winning out of the third starter spot. In the bullpen, CL Cush Baker (26 SV, 4.66) has struggled. RP Rob O'Cop (1-3, 2.65) and RP Ichavod Shoemaker (3-1, 2.02) have helped.
Prediction
Both teams have some statistical enigmas that seem should separate them more. In other words, the records more closely exemplify where they belong. We would like to congratulate the Chemists for making the playoffs, but we expect them to drop both games. Fort Hagen 2-0.