Note: Play-In Series winners will not be covered in the analysis.
BNN Weekly Report
This Week in the CBO, BMU, and GBRL
by Nat Wright-Kawolski
29 September 2303
NCA Semifinal: #4 Fort Hagen Silver Shroud vs #1 County Crossing Bloodbugs
Season Series: County Crossing 5, Fort Hagen 3
Apr 29-30 @CC: CC 8-2, CC 7-3
June 2-4 @FtH: FtH 4-0, FtH 8-7
July 28-29 @CC: CC 14-2, CC 1-0
Sept 8-9 @FtH: CC 7-4, FtH 3-2
Analysis
County Crossing and Fort Hagen met eight times in the 2303 season, with the Bloodbugs taking five of them, including all four in County Crossing. In those four games, the Bugs held the Silver Shroud to just seven runs, showing the pitching advantages of their home park. That is something that the Shroud must overcome to have a chance in this series.
County Crossing proved to be really good, finishing in the top half of every statistical category in both hitting and pitching, including finishing first in most of them. On offense, the Bugs were the top-scoring team (651 runs), along with leading in batting average (.284), OBP (.370), OPS (.808), Batting War (31.2), wOBA (.357), and base running (+3.8). Their only "poor" category was home runs (6th with 125). This team is loaded on offense. Leading the charge are County Crossing's two top players at their respective positions, RF Babs Rooth (.379/31/84) and C Biter Trout (.385/3/63), who both happened to have the top batting averages in the CBO. All eight starters had good seasons, but 3B Taygun Topaloglu (.309/19/79), SS Cy Thompson (.275/18/55), and CF Long Hall (.249/18/71) stood out.
Just like the offense, the pitching found their groove all season. The Bugs finished first in runs allowed (400), Starters ERA (3.13), Bullpen ERA (2.96), FIP (3.36), and Pitching WAR (26.7). All three starters for the playoffs had outstanding seasons: Gavin Eviritts (17-3, 3.41), Whip Lashley (16-5, 2.58), and Urm Rehfeldt (18-5, 3.06). The one negative for the Bloodbugs entering the playoffs is the absence of their closer Jesse Bibeault (33 SV, 1.20). SP Terrence Artman (12-10, 3.91) moves into the bullpen to join Relay Meacham (6-3, 2.97), Mike Koenig (4-6, 3.35), Capstone Goofson (4-1, 2.94), and Danny Sixfingers (0-2, 2.57).
Prediction
Experience in the playoffs matters, but this County Crossing team has been here for their third straight year now. Last season, Fort Hagen got the best of the Bugs in the 2-3 matchup, but this season will be all Bugs. We expect the Shroud to take one at home, but County Crossing should take this one, 3 games to 1.
NCA Semifinal: #3 Nordhagen Beach Party Boys vs #2 Concord Radstags
Season Series: Concord 4, Nordhagen Beach 4
May 5-6 @Con: NB 8-2, NB 4-1
June 16-17 @NB: Con 5-1, Con 9-5
June 30-July 1 @NB: Con 6-4, NB 9-4
July 7-8 @Con: NB 7-6, Con 7-1
Analysis
This season marks the third time both Concord and Nordhagen Beach are in the playoffs but the first time they meet. In the Radstags playoff debut, they dropped both games of the Play-In Series to the 5th-seeded The Slog. A year later, they won the Institute League and entered as the #2 seed but again failed to win a game in being swept by County Crossing. For the Stags, they hope to start their series by winning a game to mark progress.
On the season, the teams split the series with each team surprisingly going 3-1 at the other team's home park. That fact alone seems to favor the veteran club from Nordhagen Beach. The Boys from the Beach have appeared in the Sole Survivor Series the past two seasons, including winning it all in 2301. The two years prior to that, they lost out in the NCACS to Fort Hagen.
Nordhagen Beach may be the team to beat, but the Stags are the higher seed thanks to winning the Institute League. Their strength comes from the mound, including finishing 3rd in the SCA in runs allowed (485). Their starters have not been dominant, holding just the 5th-best Starters ERA (3.89). However, that higher ERA was not because of their three playoff starters: Emperry Alizm (13-8, 3.15), Spider Caddell (12-9, 3.62), and Tyler Powers (12-9). The bullpen was a better strength, finishing 2nd in ERA (3.35). CL Sheffield Williams (26 SV, 3.29) was OK for them. A few standouts included Bobby Carvajal (3-2, 1.98), Jason Jumping (1-0, 2.00), former closer Aaron Still (8-2, 2.36), and Alex Godcomplex (4-4, 2.98).
On offense, Concord struggled to score runs. They were 8th in runs (526), 8th in batting average (.250), and 5th in home runs (134). 1B Dusty Brownell (.271/38/94) was the true standout with strong contributions from RF Dan Erb (.289/22/72) and RF Gene Leftswipe (.251/22/54). CF Pocket Aintfull (.299/4/39/22 SB) has also contributed.
Nordhagen Beach is a strong team both offensively and on the mound, hurt only by their Brotherhood League rivals, the Bloodbugs being stronger. For pitching, the Boys were 2nd in runs allowed (476) and Starters ERA (3.50). In comparison to Concord, the Party Boys' three playoff starters are a lot better in head-to-head matchups: Beachboy Nut (19-8, 3.03), Ugio Church (11-8, 3.49), and Chet Arthur (13-6, 3.10). Tommy Beach (12-9, 4.15), who will move to the bullpen for the playoffs, is probably the CBO's best 4th starter. In the bullpen, they struggled a bit more, finishing 7th in ERA (3.96). Part of that high ERA hurt Nordhagen Beach late in games, including CL Matt Breakball (30 SV, 4.30). Their best reliever was Night Demon Archaki (4-1, 2.94). RP Lawdog Whipple (2-2, 3.13) had the second-best bullpen ERA.
On offense, the Party Boys can ramp up the jams. They finished in the top half of all offensive categories, including 1st in home runs (155) and 2nd in runs scored (605), OBP (.346), OPS (.766), Batting WAR (23.8), and wOBA (.339). It all starts with likely Nuka-Hitter Award winner, RF Jonathan Angelou (.313/46/126). Other outstanding hitters include CF Maxx Murtagh (.265/37/84), LF Michael Fogcrawler (.273/32/93), and 3B Dirty Dog Sapienza (.312/13/47).
Prediction
Nearly every matchup favors Nordhagen Beach except that they do not have home-field advantage. Then again, based on the 2303 season, even that may give the Party Boys the advantage. It's hard to pick a sweep, so we will not. Boys 3, Stags 1.