BNN Weekly Report
This Week in the CBO, BMU, and GBRL
by Nat Wright-Kawolski
6 October 2023
Playoff Tree
SCA: #2 University Point Deathclaws vs #1 Roxbury Rad Sox
Season Series: Roxbury 6, University Point 2
May 5-6 @Rox: Rox 8-0, Rox 9-0
June 2-3 @UP: UP 4-2, Rox 6-3
June 16-17 @UP: Rox 7-4, UP 2-1
Sept 15-16 @Rox: Rox 5-0, Rox 15-4
Analysis
A year ago, we saw the culmination of change in the South Charles Association. University Point pulled through after flirting with championship aspirations the year before to dethrone Nordhagen Beach in the Sole Survivor Series. Roxbury, perennial losers in the CBO in the six years of Commonwealth baseball, broke through to secure the third seed before dropping that series to the second-seed Jamaica Plain.
This season, these two teams enter the playoffs as the best two teams and have done nothing all season to deny their claims to the top. Sure, the Deathclaws were surpassed briefly by a hot Atom Cats team in the season, but the Cats faded later to the better team.
We already analyzed both of these teams' standouts, so let's look directly at matchups.
On offense, the Claws have the advantage in the middle of the lineup because of their 2-6 hitters all hitting at least 24 home runs on the season. The Sox gain the offensive advantage back at the 7-1 swing from the bottom of the order to the leadoff spot. In the comparison, the biggest advantage goes to University Point.
However, the pitching staffs have some say in how much the opponent can score. For the starting rotation, that advantage is to Roxbury in all three slots, though the #3 pitcher matchup of the Rad Sox's Whokill Poole vs the Claws' Bobby Van Marter is an interesting one.
Beyond the starters, the bullpen is also in the Sox's favor with the 2nd-best bullpen in the SCA vs the 6th-best.
Prediction
There has been a wins pattern in this series. We will not argue those numbers, so in the two to Rox, one to the Claws pattern, with University Point scheduled for the next, we are specifically predicting the games to go this way: G1-UP, G2-Rox, G3-Rox, G4-UP, G5-Rox, G6-Rox. Therefore, we predict the Sox to the Series with the chance to break the Boston curse for teams named the Sox in Boston, 4 games to 2.
NCA: #4 Fort Hagen Silver Shroud vs #2 Concord Radstags
Season Series: Concord 10, Fort Hagen 3
May 8-10 @FtH: Con 11-1, Con 6-4, Con 4-3
May 15-17 @Con: Con 5-1, FtH 2-1, Con 1-0
July 31-Aug 2 @Con: Con 4-1, FtH 8-4, Con 7-2
Aug 21-23 @FtH: Con 4-3, Con 3-2, FtH 4-2
Sept 21 @Con: Con 5-1
Analysis
Before Concord won their series over the Nordhagen Beach Party Boys, they had yet to win a playoff series. Not only that, but in their two previous trips to the playoffs, they were a combined 0-5 in their games played. So to be in the position where they have home-field advantage to make a Sole Survivor Series, the Radstags have made great strides in their success.
For Fort Hagen, new year, same successes. The Silver Shroud are in the playoffs for the seventh-straight season with their fifth appearance in the NCA Championship Series in six years of its existence. Their one year of not getting this far was in 2301 as the 5th seed when they fell to the #1 Party Boys in the Semifinals round in the Boys' eventual championship season.
This season, though, the Stags were the team to keep Fort Hagen down. The Shroud struggled to get wins all season, and they ultimately lost in the season tiebreaker game to fall to the #4 seed in the playoffs. Based on regular season results, Concord has a huge advantage in this series.
Offensively, the Silver Shroud seem to have most of the advantage, especially when it comes to offensive stardom, like CF Ben Pawlak. However, the Stags have a decided advantage in generating runs with power. In the end, the teams finished with just a 13-run differential, with Fort Hagen winning the season battle in runs scored, 539-526.
The pitching matchups are even tighter, with Concord holding the runs allowed advantage, 485-495. The Shroud's starters have a 0.26 ERA advantage but in the bullpen its a 0.21 ERA advantage to the Radstags. Based on pure talent, the advantage seems to be Fort Hagen. The questions is if that will be the reality.
Prediction
Based on the regular season results, the Radstags seem to have Fort Hagen's number. This is not the regular season, and the Shroud are not to be messed up in the playoffs. We're taking Fort Hagen to power themselves in a well-fought, tight series. Shroud 4, Concord 3.