Quote:
Originally Posted by Brad K
Bad trades happen real life but no one strikes out 295 times real life. I suppose that's OK with fictional players though... if the idea is once there are fictional players we must discard all references to the characteristics of real baseball.
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Who knows what strikeout rates are going to look like in the future. 20 years ago people could have said that about 200 strikeouts, Bobby Bonds had held the single season strikeout record for 33 years at 189. Since Mark Reynolds broke 200 Ks in 2008, it has happened 16 times since.
Is the current baseball environment going to produce a 295 K season? No, but could the baseball environment in 10 years? Absolutely.
Across 700 PA it would take a 42.1% K rate to strike out 295 times. In 2020 Miguel Sano had a 43.9% K rate and was still a league average hitter by wRC+.
From 2007-2019 the leaguewide strikeout rate increased by about 6% and the league leader is typically 10-12% over league average (16% in the case of Mark Reynolds record setting 2009). If there is another wave of increasing K% like we saw in the 2010s, then 295 could very much be in play.
The point I'm really trying to make is that we don't really know how the league environment is going to change until it does and a strict adherence to the current environment isn't necessarily the best especially for fictional players. The idea of a player hitting 50 HRs was absurd until Ruth did it. I doubt people 10 years ago would have believed that someone would lead the league in innings in a full season with under 200, but Robbie Ray lead the AL with 193 innings in 2021.