Quote:
Originally Posted by Syd Thrift
To be honest I think good defense should have more of an effect on pBABIP but the rating was put in to take care of pitchers who have better BABIP because of their stuff, which I find it downright bizarre that the devs haven’t included (there’s a modifier based on velocity and perhaps on Stuff of a couple specific pitches but the literature I’ve seen is that this effect seems to be best correlated with just straight up K rate) as well as pitchers like Jim Palmer, whom the people who work on the historical engine apparently wanted because “changing players defensive ratings messes up the stats”, which of course is a ridiculous comment since even the best teams only get 27 outs and as long as player A has ratings that are in line on a general percentage basis with player B, you wouldn’t see individual stats go crazy like that.
That said, I think you’re correct in that it probably doesn’t do a huge amount one way or the other. And I guess as it stands, studies of the game indicate that fielding already has a really large factor on the game, so let sleeping dogs lie, I suppose…
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So, I used to agree with you that Rivera-like outliers were the huge aberration and for the most part Stuff is Stuff, but having watched Gausman be the runaway best FIP/K/etc pitcher in baseball for the last two years (2.54 FIP, next best is 2.88; 9.5 fWAR, next is 8.6; 25.5% K-BB, next is 24.7%, etc) while having literally the second-worst BABIP in baseball (.350, only Patrick Corbin with his 4.85 FIP is worse at .351) has me reconsidering that stance.
In that timeframe the Jays have been 14th in OAA, 21st in UZR/150; so not amazing defensively (thanks Lourdes and Teoscar) but certainly not abysmal either.