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Art Deco · 08-03-2023, 09:24 AM

Record: 13-13
2nd place AL East, 4 behind Toronto, 1/2 game behind third wild card

Somehow an offense that led the league in runs scored last season and returned intact for can't buy a run in 2027 and despite an incredible month of pitching the Rays find themselves at .500. Just look at these scores from April:

A lot of the binary baseball being played with 15 of the 26 games seeing at least one of the teams involved scoring 0 or 1. It was a remarkably injury-free month and we got Jackson Chourio back on the 11th and Jeffrey Springs for the final game of the month.

And if you thought I was kidding in the opening paragraph, you can see these team stats throwing the pitching/hitting disparity in stark relief. 237/305/359 is a batting line that gets you booted from the lineup except with this team right now it is the lineup. And again this is the same collection of hitters which led the league in runs last year. Our Pythagorean record says we should be three games better and that's largely due to a 1-6 record in one-run games. Normally you'd be looking at the bullpen as the culprit in these situations but they only really blew one game this month; instead it's the anemic bats. And here's how anemic they are on an individual basis:

Sorted by OPS instead of WAR to give an idea of who's hitting and who's not, with very few in the former category. Chourio has been a notable exception, Carson Williams has picked up where he's left off and probably should be batting higher than his customary 9-hole, and Wander Franco has largely done the job. Otherwise it's been disappointment all around and Brock Jones has followed his mediocre second half of 2026 with a miserable April and probably is in the most jeopardy of losing his place in the lineup, perhaps to Luisangel Acuna who has hit in limited action. Obviously this group is better than what they've shown so far so nothing drastic is in the works, but if things aren't better next time I post after May I may be singing a different tune.

And now for an 180-degree turn:

Just amazing numbers. Matt Brash has been incredible - although his lack of stamina limits him to about 5 innings/start what starts they've been with a 4/46 BB/K ratio in 25 IP has him atop the K and WAR leaderboards in the AL. Nearly as impressive has been rookie Waylin Santana, who turned heads in September and the postseason this year and has lived up to that promise so far. And speaking of rookies, Fernando Costume has been virtually unhittable and is finding himself in higher-leverage roles now. The only starter to struggle was a third rookie, Jose Diaz, who was optioned to Durham when Springs came off the IL. Diaz got his whiffs but was a bit too homer-prone. Had we had last season's offense, with this pitching they could have been 23-3 instead of 13-13.

On the farm:

If we're looking to Durham to boost the offense there are a couple of options. Saggese is MLB-ready to hit and if he could play the OF he might already be up taking at-bats away from Jones. Quelch continues to show off his MLB-caliber power but his contact tool remains a bit questionable. Junior Caminero has disappeared from this list as he lost rookie eligibility last year but is hitting 294/351/574 after being sent down when Chourio came back. And we have vets Randy Arozarena (391/417/636 in 23 AB) and Cody Bellinger (.234 but with 8 HR in 23 games) as OF options with the Bulls.

08-03-2023, 09:24 AM	#72
Art Deco Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 6,926	April 2027 Record: 13-13 2nd place AL East, 4 behind Toronto, 1/2 game behind third wild card Somehow an offense that led the league in runs scored last season and returned intact for can't buy a run in 2027 and despite an incredible month of pitching the Rays find themselves at .500. Just look at these scores from April: A lot of the binary baseball being played with 15 of the 26 games seeing at least one of the teams involved scoring 0 or 1. It was a remarkably injury-free month and we got Jackson Chourio back on the 11th and Jeffrey Springs for the final game of the month. And if you thought I was kidding in the opening paragraph, you can see these team stats throwing the pitching/hitting disparity in stark relief. 237/305/359 is a batting line that gets you booted from the lineup except with this team right now it is the lineup. And again this is the same collection of hitters which led the league in runs last year. Our Pythagorean record says we should be three games better and that's largely due to a 1-6 record in one-run games. Normally you'd be looking at the bullpen as the culprit in these situations but they only really blew one game this month; instead it's the anemic bats. And here's how anemic they are on an individual basis: Sorted by OPS instead of WAR to give an idea of who's hitting and who's not, with very few in the former category. Chourio has been a notable exception, Carson Williams has picked up where he's left off and probably should be batting higher than his customary 9-hole, and Wander Franco has largely done the job. Otherwise it's been disappointment all around and Brock Jones has followed his mediocre second half of 2026 with a miserable April and probably is in the most jeopardy of losing his place in the lineup, perhaps to Luisangel Acuna who has hit in limited action. Obviously this group is better than what they've shown so far so nothing drastic is in the works, but if things aren't better next time I post after May I may be singing a different tune. And now for an 180-degree turn: Just amazing numbers. Matt Brash has been incredible - although his lack of stamina limits him to about 5 innings/start what starts they've been with a 4/46 BB/K ratio in 25 IP has him atop the K and WAR leaderboards in the AL. Nearly as impressive has been rookie Waylin Santana, who turned heads in September and the postseason this year and has lived up to that promise so far. And speaking of rookies, Fernando Costume has been virtually unhittable and is finding himself in higher-leverage roles now. The only starter to struggle was a third rookie, Jose Diaz, who was optioned to Durham when Springs came off the IL. Diaz got his whiffs but was a bit too homer-prone. Had we had last season's offense, with this pitching they could have been 23-3 instead of 13-13. On the farm: If we're looking to Durham to boost the offense there are a couple of options. Saggese is MLB-ready to hit and if he could play the OF he might already be up taking at-bats away from Jones. Quelch continues to show off his MLB-caliber power but his contact tool remains a bit questionable. Junior Caminero has disappeared from this list as he lost rookie eligibility last year but is hitting 294/351/574 after being sent down when Chourio came back. And we have vets Randy Arozarena (391/417/636 in 23 AB) and Cody Bellinger (.234 but with 8 HR in 23 games) as OF options with the Bulls.