2029 was a weird season as the team struggled to break the gravitational pull of .500 for the first four months before getting red hot and finishing with 92 wins and the first AL wild card. A tough loss in the ALDS to Toronto ended the season, and now we face a challenging offseason with some key players entering free agency and little to no help forthcoming from the farm system.
We lose our starting CF of the past few years (Zach DeLoach), both our 3B (Anthony Rendon, Marco Luciano), our top starter (John Swanda), our closer (Edwin Diaz) and our top lefty setup man (Jovani Moran). So yeah, it's going to be a challenge. The good news is that we'll have some money to spend. We've been given a $160M payroll by Stu Sternberg and here are the salary commitments for 2030:
There are also going to be some non-tenders in this group (Espino, Jeffers, Cousins, Ruegger) which will save almost $10M, leaving commitments of about $104M and therefore up to $56M to spend. I have reached out to Luciano about an extension to fill 3B, offering 3/16.5.
So here's where things stand position-by-position:
Catcher: Angel Rivera wasn't bad, hitting for power, drawing walks, and playing decent defense, although he did hit about .210. With Jeffers getting the axe we'll need a backup. 2025 first-round pick Easton Carmichael could be that guy. He's hit well at Durham despite a 45 contact tool and he doesn't have a lot of power but is a decent catcher.
First Base: Junior Caminero returns, no issues there.
Second Base: Ditto for Ozzie Albies.
Shortstop: And the same for Wander Franco.
Third Base: Luciano seems receptive to our offer, so I'm penciling him in there. If not we'll need to find one as Freili Encarnacion has been OK as a fill-in but I'm not sure I want to make him the man.
Infield: We'll need a backup infielder. Max Viera who's been up before could work as might 2022 first-round pick RJ Austin who's never lived up to billing.
Left Field: Natanael Santana is coming off a 45-homer season.
Center Field: DeLoach leaving deprives us of our CF and leadoff hitter. He did drop off in 29 and is now 31, so we're not going to pay him what he'd get on the open market. Elijah Green did a tremendous job filling in last year, hitting for power (17 HR in 224 AB) and playing 70-grade defense so he has the inside track for now but he only hit .228 overall.
Right Field: This has been the domain of James Wood and he can be back, but I've few players underachieve their ratings like him. We're talking 60 contact and 65 power and that only translated to 194/285/371 last season. And to make matters worse he tore his labrum and will be out through at least some time in April, meaning he won't be with the big club until May after missing Spring Training. So help might be needed here. Mitsuyoski Arakawa could fill in as he did late in the season after Wood got hurt, but he too underachieved his ratings at 188/305/406 although he has a great power/speed/defense combo but 45 contact. Arakawa can also fill in some at CF.
Outfield: Arakawa is the nominal 4th OF for now if we count Wood and there isn't much help in the minors as Hendry Mendez is probably our best option on the 40-man but he's bat-only with a mediocre glove.
DH: Nelson Haro hit as hoped as a rookie and we're looking for him to improve a little bit on his 310/333/478 with some more power.
Rotation: Swanda will be missed although he had a mediocre 2029 after being our ace the previous two years. We still have several options though: Bryce Eldridge, Walt Khattak, Luis German, Donye Evans (a revelation), and Taj Bradley who returns from a torn meniscus that cost him the second half of the season. JP Sears also was very effective filling in and Eric Orze is a possibility although he flopped last year.
Bullpen: A lot of work needed here. There's no true closer with Diaz gone. Trey Riley was the setup man but he seemed to falter in big moments (including Game 5 of the ALDS) and Aldry Acosta had a nice year (110 Ks in 95 IP over 68 games as we worked him hard). Ryan Okuda rebounded from his disastrous first half to give us a lefty in the pen but I'm not sure I trust him like I did Moran, Tanner Dodson was a good waiver pickup, and Sears and Orze may figure in as might veteran lefty Adrian Morejon (although with 40 movement he won't be used in high-leverage situations).
So here are the goals for the 29-30 offseason as we'll realistically have about $40M to play with, leaving $10M available in-season:
1) Find 1 or 2 impact OFs, preferably one who can play CF.
2) Beef up the bench at all positions (C, IF, OF)
3) Find a power reliever who can close
I also wouldn't turn down a good starter but that's not a desperate need.