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My understanding, very much framed by my own observations, differs slightly from hef's.
I am of the firm belief that a player has an "imprint" that is the basic template from which the game plans out his career that he receives when he is "born" IE imported. This will differ in various ways if you import him at different stages of his career, but only in that it cuts off the section of the career that came before the import date.
In this case, which is why WM has come in with 80 POT.
So theoretically, with only the dev engine on he'll gravitate along this preordained path, like a plane goes from takeoff to landing (in a way), in other words less accurately without the "waypoints" that recalc provide along the course of his career.
Recalc keeps things tighter with regard to the IRL career than dev only, which leaves the player more susceptible to deviation and volatility, either just as a natural part of the game or because of settings such as LTMs and TCR.
But, regardless of whether recalc or dev is being applied, the general trajectory of this player's career has already been set. So you get something that resembles Willie or whomever it is. It's merely a matter of degrees from there.
That, at least, is how I have come to think of this question.
Hope that helps.
G
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