Originally Posted by Charlie Hough
I never tested Koufax specifically, but the potential effects are going to be the same for everyone, depending on their age and randomness. No one stays at the same level indefinitely anymore. In any historical game where Koufax doesn't retire and the development engine takes over, he will probably remain a huge star for at least several years because he retired so early and was so dominant when he did. Even if he starts declining once he's in his mid-30s, he starts from such a high point that his ratings can decline a fair bit, and he can still be a star.
However, as all players age, the chance that they will start declining increases. That chance, and the potential severity of the decline, increases significantly as they reach their mid-30s and beyond. If Koufax manages to reach his late 30s without significant decline, there is a much higher chance that he's going to start dropping. It could be slow and gradual, or it could be quick and dramatic.
For example, in my test with Hal Chase, his ratings dropped from 1919 to 1920, but then they remained the same for the next two seasons, when he reached the age of 39. But, during those two seasons, the Giants stopped using him much at all, and after those two years with very few at-bats, he retired. He was still a very serviceable player with pretty decent ratings, but I suspect that the lack of playing time likely influenced his decision to retire. Had he kept playing, though, he probably would have seen another decline and possibly a significant one as he reached 40 or a bit beyond.
In another game, I had a starter who was one of the top pitchers in MLB at the age of 37, but he suddenly collapsed when the game moved to the next season. He wasn't even good enough to pitch in the majors anymore, so I sent him to the minors for one year and then released him.
Just as in real life, some players defy age. Most do not. Many will go through a slow and gradual decline, and some will suddenly collapse. That's how the development engine works, especially as players get older.
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