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Art Deco · 12-07-2023, 01:42 PM

Six seasons now of making the playoffs but unable to win it all, with the only trip to the World Series in 2027 - this sounds like the real-life Rays as well. So what does 2029 hold in store?

First off we made a couple of moves as the World Series ended. First we claimed OF Tommy Specht off waivers from Texas. Specht made his MLB debut with the Rangers late last year and hit 5 HR in 96 AB (albeit with a .196 BA). His ratings are 50-55 across the board and he's a 60 in RF and a passable 45 in CF. In other words, a nice 4th/5th OF. He has options left so he may start the season in Durham.

Also, a trade:

Acuna was part of our infield glut, due for a raise in arbitration, and coming off a negative-WAR season after being very useful in 2027. In return we get Rosa, a Schwarber-type with 40/45 contact but 65/70 power and a 55/65 eye. He hit 230/328/406 with 8 HR and 20 walks in 44 games with the Marlins and is a better OF than Schwarber (55 LF/50 RF). He too has options so he's in the mix but not guaranteed anything.

Anyway the big news is that Stu Sternberg is ready to splurge this year with a $190M payroll. Here are the projected salaries:

If we were to keep everyone, this group adds up to $155M. Gelof was a nice addition last year but $4.8M might be a lot for a guy who mainly plays againt LHP only. After his 2026 Cy Young season Taj has put together seasons of 4.23 and 4.85 ERAs and averaged about 2.5 WAR so $15M is pushing it for him. And unless Pepiot is going to start, $8.5M is kind of steep for him.

Meanwhile we have the following free agents:

C Shea Langeliers, SP Jeffrey Springs, RP Matt Brash, RP Jose Alvarado, and RP Jovani Moran.

Springs was always a rental after he re-acquired him, Alvarado was a disappointment and Brash will command more than I'd want to pay for a swingman. Moran is hurt, so that leaves Langeliers as the one guy I'm going to miss as he wants 8x26 to extend. He had a nice 3-WAR season last year and I know I could probably get him down to 6x23 or something like that but that's a lot of dinero. We have Patrick Bailey ready to step in and he should so a good job. The position-by-position outlook:

C: As just mentioned Bailey should take over as the regular. Who will back him up? Good question. Blake Hunt is still at Durham and a defensive whiz, but lousy with the bat. Dominic Keegan is the opposite: a good hitter but a 40/45 catcher. Mac Guscette splits the difference with 40 contact but 55/60 power & eye and a 50 glove. A wild card is 2026 draftee Zion Rose, who's MLB-rated at 50/55 contact, 55/60 power, 50/55 eye but 45 with the glove. Rose could also play the OF but hasn't been above AA yet. So plenty of internal options.

1B: Bobby Marsh will try to bounce back from his 2.1 WAR season after looking like a superstar with 6.5 WAR in 2027. The ratings are (mostly) still there with a slight contact erosion but we're hoping for positive regression.

2B: Junior Caminero was the answer with a brilliant couple of months and then he tore a labrum, putting him out until early May. We have good cover there with Tetsuhisha Hirata, who hit 283/372/454 but had a -3.4 ZR in only 39 games despite being rated 65 at the position.

SS: Carson Williams is a stud, but he can't seem to stay healthy for a full season (rated "fragile"), earning 3.2 WAR in 133 games.

3B: Elly De La Cruz returns to do his thing coming off a 4.6 WAR season that could have been better had he gone deep more than 23 times which he is quite capable of.

IF: With L.Acuna gone Masyn Winn becomes the primary infield backup although Hirata could take that role when Caminero comes back. Winn spent most of 2028 at AAA but that was due more to a numbers game.

LF: Kevin Alcantara had a strange season, dropping from .284-30-99 to .214-20-62 but came alive in the postseason and nearly got us to the World Series. Similar to Marsh, I'm hoping for a bounceback especially given the encouraging playoff signs.

CF: Jackson Chourio had a great year and although he's probably not really a CF anymore he can still fake the position.

RF: Mason Auer bounced back last year, splitting the difference between his incredible 2026 (5.2 WAR) and his lousy 2027 (1.3 WAR) with a 3.8-WAR year and gives us top-shelf speed and defense.

OF: Bayron Lora was the primary OF backup and was productive at 257/395/451 with 12 homers, good for 1.3 WAR. He'll get competition from new acquisitions Specht and Rosa as well as returnee Joe Quelch, who has prodigious power and plays a good LF.

DH: Triston Casas disappointed last year at 235/303/456. He didn't get on base enough despite hitting a career-high 26 HR and only earned 0.8 WAR. He's also getting pricey so he's not a cast-iron lock to return. Lora, Specht and Rosa could fill in here (and one will against LHP if Casas stays), and lefty-swinging Cooper Kinney could finally get his chance after hitting 61 HR and Durham the last two seasons including hitting .343 last year. Thomas Saggese, who was great in 2027 with the big club but started poorly last year and found himself in Durham for the duration, is still in the mix as well.

Rotation: Things really hinge on whether Shane McClanahan isn't worse for the wear after shoulder inflammation shut him down for the final two months as he was on his way to a Cy Young season. He gives us a true ace on a unit that was down more than up last year. The aforementioned Bradley needs to get back in gear, Jose Ramirez was an adequate 4th-starter type after coming over in trade, and Waylin Santana needs to step back up after a dazzling 2027 rookie season gave way to an injury-plagued mediocre one in 2028. DL Hall and Ryan Pepiot are 5th-starter candidates and one of these years Jack Perkins should get his shot although he's been quite valuable in the pen. Also we'll have to pay Chang-hyeok Kim $4.5M to keep around so if we do he'll be more likely than not to get a chance to start.

Bullpen: Hall, Pepiot (if kept) and Perkins probably figure into the mix with Hall more likely to return to the pen given that we'll lose lefty relievers Alvarado and Moran to free agency. Andrew Nardi is still around but we'll probably be looking for a lefty arm to acquire. Hayden Juenger is the RH setup man with Fernando Costume out until mid-season while Matt Canterino remains the long man. And closer Matthew Peguero is back but despite 39 saves he had some issues closing out games. Definitely an area to address.

Farm help: Santiago Suarez, who came briefly in September, has swingman potential, as does one-time top prospect Joel Diaz. 3B Willy Vasquez, with his 55 power and 55 glove at 3B, deserves an MLB shot but is blocked by EDLC. The true wild card is 2028 first-round pick Ethan Holliday, who seriously raked (352/444/659) in two months at AA Montgomery with his 70 (potential 80) MLB contact tool but will need to work on his lousy defense at 2B. Still he's an impact bat who will probably help us sooner rather than later.

So the offseason goals are:

1) Determine whether to keep the likes of Casas, Pepiot and perhaps even Taj as all seem potentially overpaid in arbitration.

2) Sort out the backup C situation. There are probably enough internal options but if the opportunity to really upgrade here presents itself I just may take it.

3) Upgrade the bullpen, replacing the lost lefties in particular. Also I wouldn't mind adding a reliable starter. Depending on how things go with #1 above, I may have $40-50M to spend.

12-07-2023, 01:42 PM	#130
Art Deco Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 7,843	2028-29 Offseason: State of the Team Six seasons now of making the playoffs but unable to win it all, with the only trip to the World Series in 2027 - this sounds like the real-life Rays as well. So what does 2029 hold in store? First off we made a couple of moves as the World Series ended. First we claimed OF Tommy Specht off waivers from Texas. Specht made his MLB debut with the Rangers late last year and hit 5 HR in 96 AB (albeit with a .196 BA). His ratings are 50-55 across the board and he's a 60 in RF and a passable 45 in CF. In other words, a nice 4th/5th OF. He has options left so he may start the season in Durham. Also, a trade: Acuna was part of our infield glut, due for a raise in arbitration, and coming off a negative-WAR season after being very useful in 2027. In return we get Rosa, a Schwarber-type with 40/45 contact but 65/70 power and a 55/65 eye. He hit 230/328/406 with 8 HR and 20 walks in 44 games with the Marlins and is a better OF than Schwarber (55 LF/50 RF). He too has options so he's in the mix but not guaranteed anything. Anyway the big news is that Stu Sternberg is ready to splurge this year with a $190M payroll. Here are the projected salaries: If we were to keep everyone, this group adds up to $155M. Gelof was a nice addition last year but $4.8M might be a lot for a guy who mainly plays againt LHP only. After his 2026 Cy Young season Taj has put together seasons of 4.23 and 4.85 ERAs and averaged about 2.5 WAR so $15M is pushing it for him. And unless Pepiot is going to start, $8.5M is kind of steep for him. Meanwhile we have the following free agents: C Shea Langeliers, SP Jeffrey Springs, RP Matt Brash, RP Jose Alvarado, and RP Jovani Moran. Springs was always a rental after he re-acquired him, Alvarado was a disappointment and Brash will command more than I'd want to pay for a swingman. Moran is hurt, so that leaves Langeliers as the one guy I'm going to miss as he wants 8x26 to extend. He had a nice 3-WAR season last year and I know I could probably get him down to 6x23 or something like that but that's a lot of dinero. We have Patrick Bailey ready to step in and he should so a good job. The position-by-position outlook: C: As just mentioned Bailey should take over as the regular. Who will back him up? Good question. Blake Hunt is still at Durham and a defensive whiz, but lousy with the bat. Dominic Keegan is the opposite: a good hitter but a 40/45 catcher. Mac Guscette splits the difference with 40 contact but 55/60 power & eye and a 50 glove. A wild card is 2026 draftee Zion Rose, who's MLB-rated at 50/55 contact, 55/60 power, 50/55 eye but 45 with the glove. Rose could also play the OF but hasn't been above AA yet. So plenty of internal options. 1B: Bobby Marsh will try to bounce back from his 2.1 WAR season after looking like a superstar with 6.5 WAR in 2027. The ratings are (mostly) still there with a slight contact erosion but we're hoping for positive regression. 2B: Junior Caminero was the answer with a brilliant couple of months and then he tore a labrum, putting him out until early May. We have good cover there with Tetsuhisha Hirata, who hit 283/372/454 but had a -3.4 ZR in only 39 games despite being rated 65 at the position. SS: Carson Williams is a stud, but he can't seem to stay healthy for a full season (rated "fragile"), earning 3.2 WAR in 133 games. 3B: Elly De La Cruz returns to do his thing coming off a 4.6 WAR season that could have been better had he gone deep more than 23 times which he is quite capable of. IF: With L.Acuna gone Masyn Winn becomes the primary infield backup although Hirata could take that role when Caminero comes back. Winn spent most of 2028 at AAA but that was due more to a numbers game. LF: Kevin Alcantara had a strange season, dropping from .284-30-99 to .214-20-62 but came alive in the postseason and nearly got us to the World Series. Similar to Marsh, I'm hoping for a bounceback especially given the encouraging playoff signs. CF: Jackson Chourio had a great year and although he's probably not really a CF anymore he can still fake the position. RF: Mason Auer bounced back last year, splitting the difference between his incredible 2026 (5.2 WAR) and his lousy 2027 (1.3 WAR) with a 3.8-WAR year and gives us top-shelf speed and defense. OF: Bayron Lora was the primary OF backup and was productive at 257/395/451 with 12 homers, good for 1.3 WAR. He'll get competition from new acquisitions Specht and Rosa as well as returnee Joe Quelch, who has prodigious power and plays a good LF. DH: Triston Casas disappointed last year at 235/303/456. He didn't get on base enough despite hitting a career-high 26 HR and only earned 0.8 WAR. He's also getting pricey so he's not a cast-iron lock to return. Lora, Specht and Rosa could fill in here (and one will against LHP if Casas stays), and lefty-swinging Cooper Kinney could finally get his chance after hitting 61 HR and Durham the last two seasons including hitting .343 last year. Thomas Saggese, who was great in 2027 with the big club but started poorly last year and found himself in Durham for the duration, is still in the mix as well. Rotation: Things really hinge on whether Shane McClanahan isn't worse for the wear after shoulder inflammation shut him down for the final two months as he was on his way to a Cy Young season. He gives us a true ace on a unit that was down more than up last year. The aforementioned Bradley needs to get back in gear, Jose Ramirez was an adequate 4th-starter type after coming over in trade, and Waylin Santana needs to step back up after a dazzling 2027 rookie season gave way to an injury-plagued mediocre one in 2028. DL Hall and Ryan Pepiot are 5th-starter candidates and one of these years Jack Perkins should get his shot although he's been quite valuable in the pen. Also we'll have to pay Chang-hyeok Kim $4.5M to keep around so if we do he'll be more likely than not to get a chance to start. Bullpen: Hall, Pepiot (if kept) and Perkins probably figure into the mix with Hall more likely to return to the pen given that we'll lose lefty relievers Alvarado and Moran to free agency. Andrew Nardi is still around but we'll probably be looking for a lefty arm to acquire. Hayden Juenger is the RH setup man with Fernando Costume out until mid-season while Matt Canterino remains the long man. And closer Matthew Peguero is back but despite 39 saves he had some issues closing out games. Definitely an area to address. Farm help: Santiago Suarez, who came briefly in September, has swingman potential, as does one-time top prospect Joel Diaz. 3B Willy Vasquez, with his 55 power and 55 glove at 3B, deserves an MLB shot but is blocked by EDLC. The true wild card is 2028 first-round pick Ethan Holliday, who seriously raked (352/444/659) in two months at AA Montgomery with his 70 (potential 80) MLB contact tool but will need to work on his lousy defense at 2B. Still he's an impact bat who will probably help us sooner rather than later. So the offseason goals are: 1) Determine whether to keep the likes of Casas, Pepiot and perhaps even Taj as all seem potentially overpaid in arbitration. 2) Sort out the backup C situation. There are probably enough internal options but if the opportunity to really upgrade here presents itself I just may take it. 3) Upgrade the bullpen, replacing the lost lefties in particular. Also I wouldn't mind adding a reliable starter. Depending on how things go with #1 above, I may have $40-50M to spend.