[reflections]

Originally Posted by JerryShoe

Like many baseball fans, I often wonder what the lifetime statistical landscape would look life had there not been a color barrier. Babe Ruth would not have hit 714 homers if he had to face the Bullet Rogens of the day, but how many would he have hit? 699? 643? Would Oscar Charlston reach the 3000-hat plateau? OOTP could be a good way to find out, if OOTP would be historically correct. I ran baseball from 1921 to 1976, the last year anyone who played in the Negro Leagues played in MLB (Henry "Hank" Aaron and Johnny "Blue Moon" Odom) and took a look at the "counting statistics" that are easiest on the eyes, discounting those that are dependent on factors other than player performance (steals, RBIs, saves). This left hits, homers and strikeouts. Listing those who had 3000 hits, 500 homers or 2400 K's by 1976 and played most of their career after 1920, I came up with 35 lines of stats, adding in Ernie Banks who had 500 "real" homers but only 462 in OOTP. I used 1-year recalc with historical transactions and lineups. The following is the chart showing the results:

Hits..........................OOTP.........Actual
Hank Aaron...............3902.... ....3771....reasonably close
Stan Musial...............3667.........3630....nearly correct
Roberto Clemente....3644.........3000....20% too high
Al Kaline....................3461........ 3007....15% too high
Willie Mays................3419........ 3293....reasonably close
Mel Ott.......................3340....... 2876....15% too high
Frank Robinson.........3273........2943....reasonably close
Paul Waner................3221........3152....reasonabl y close
Frankie Frisch............3184........2880....reasonably close
Al Simmons................3064........2927....reasona bly close
Charlie Gehringer.......3059........2839....reasonably close
Lou Brock...................3040........3023....nearly correct
Rogers Hornsby..........3015........2930....reasonably close

Home Runs................ OOTP.......Actual
Hank Aaron....................725........755....reasona bly close
Mickey Mantle................715........536....WAY too high
Frank Robinson..............673........586....15% too high
Babe Ruth.......................665........714....reaso nably close
Willie Mays......................641........660....nearly correct
Willie McCovey............... 614........521....20% too high
Mel Ott............................609........ 511....20% too high
Harmon Killebrew............604........573....reasonably close
Ted Williams....................572........521....reas onably close
Jimmie Foxx....................553........534....reasonab ly close
Eddie Mathews...............509........512....nearly correct
Stan Musial.....................501........475....reaso nably close
Ernie Banks....................462........512....10% too low

Strikeouts......................OOTP........Actual
Jim Bunning....................2776.......2855....reas onably close
Bob Gibson.....................2746........3117....15% too low
Mickey Lolich..................2601........2832....reason ably close
Bob Feller.......................2600........2581....r easonably close
Sam McDowell...............2586........2453....reasona bly close
Sandy Koufax................2557........2396....reasonab ly close
Warren Spahn...............2491........2583....reasonably close
Don Drysdale................ 2416........2486....reasonably close
Early Wynn....................2414........2334....reason ably close

big difference........1
20% difference......3
15% difference......4
10% difference..... 1
reasonably close..22
nearly correct........4
total....................35

The scenario I envision would be along the lines of the NHL/WHA and NBA/ABA mergers, where some upstart teams move into the established circuits. I would contract the Negro National League into 4 teams and place 2 in each established league for 2 10-team, 162 game season AL and NL. If there aren't enough players for this, I would disperse the NNL players among the 2 8-team circuits. Either way, there would be a bit of work involved. I was hoping for OOTP to be on point or totally out of whack so that making a decision to dedicate a lot of time creating this project or not would be an easy one. But this is a mixed bag; certain stat lines came to close to reality that the designers should get a standing ovation (look how close Brock came). But others, I mean Mickey "Muscles" Mantle was my first baseball hero, but 715 homers??? I guess with two-thirds being reasonably close or nearly correct, it's time to roll up my sleeves. Any thoughts on whether this is a worthwhile venture? Thanks!

I'm curious if Mickey had the same injuries as in RL, that might be what caused such an increase in his home runs.