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If you're using OOTP's development engine, anything can happen. Clones won't necessarily develop exactly like their real-life counterparts. Players can fail to develop in the minors, and if a future star hasn't started to reach his full potential by the age of 23 or 24, it becomes increasingly likely that he will never reach that potential.
Just as in real life, if a player starts reaching his mid-20s and he still doesn't have MLB talent, there is a good chance that he is going to peak at his current level or not much higher, and he may never make the majors. There are exceptions, but what you'll often see is that their potential will begin to drop, so, even if they improve, they have a lower ceiling.
I've just watched this happen with Mark Langston in a mid-80s simulation. I started the game in 1985, and he had great potential based on his peak seasons, but due to his poor stats in 1985, his movement and control were quite low. Plus, he was already 24 years old. So, he was assigned to AAA, and now that we're halfway through 1986, his ratings have failed to improve, and his overall potential has now dropped. In theory, he could still develop, but it looks like his ceiling will be lower, and, since he's now 25, it is much less likely that he will become a star SP.
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