[pgjocki]

Originally Posted by Charlie Hough

This is all part of the real-life process, and teams can use it to their advantage. Since the expansion draft happens in November, a ton of players are already granted free agency by the time the draft occurs, so teams don't protect those players. If players are restricted free agents who would require compensation, then teams might protect them.

Arbitration can also play into a team's decision to protect players. If an arbitration-eligible player isn't really living up to expectations, but it's likely that he's going to get more money in arbitration, then he potentially becomes a good candidate to be left unprotected. You can leave him unprotected and hope that someone drafts him and assumes the risk.

Expansion team owners have already paid a huge expansion fee and will also pay a fee for every player drafted from another team. So, budget isn't necessarily an issue. But they have to weigh the potential arbitration cost and the fee to the other team, plus the immediate and long-term value of the player.

To illustrate the potential budget non-issue, here are some examples from the Marlins' free agent signings in December 1992. These were not arbitration-eligible players, but the numbers are telling.

The Marlins signed Benito Santiago at $3.6 million per season, Orestes Destrade for $2 million, Dave Magadan for $900,000, and they signed me for $800,000. So, clearly, they were willing to spend money on free agents. I'm not sure if anyone they drafted in November 1992 was eligible for arbitration, but the risk might not have detracted them much, if they really wanted the player. They were clearly willing to spend.

Thanks for clarifying. I just don't want to take advantage of the AI but now I see that this can play out in multiple ways.