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Old 03-15-2024, 03:10 AM   #39
luckymann
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Join Date: Nov 2019
Posts: 13,673
1920 Recap (2)

Just a quick look at how all that talent affected the overall performance of the league.

Here are the respective hitting and pitching leaders and stats for the two tests:






To be honest, the opposite of what I expected happened with outlier performances more extreme in the Treatment. Normally the application of LTMs has a compression effect that regresses stats to the mean to varying degrees. That hasn't happened as much here, with Ruth the obvious standout.

Comparing this to the historical, it seems that the NeLer counting stats are being taken from the second-tier players. Cy Williams only had a handful of HR in the Treatment vs 17 IRL, while Tillie Walker and George Sisler also saw their totals decrease a bit.

Then again, Babe did lose 14 HR in the Control sim, which equates to 26% so perhaps somewhere in the midpoint of the two groups is where we should be looking. That gives him 46 HR, or a drop of 15%. Career-wise that would knock him down to a smidge over 600, fairly noticeable.

The other big counting stat for consideration is pitcher strikeouts. Clearly, with the influx of so many hotly-rated pitchers at once decimates the K leaderboard for white guys. Pete Alexander led the MLB IRL in 1920 with 173. In the sims, he had 95 in the Control and 102 in the Treatment. That is a massive drop. (Oddly, Walter Johnson's total in both increased on the historical.)

Of course, small sample size yada yada yada but I think you'll find these results will hold in the macro sense, even if the various players change, over a larger number of iterations.

Will be very interested to see what effect, if any, the new LTM protocol has on this sort of situation.
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