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Art Deco · 03-30-2024, 05:26 PM

A tough World Series but we'll have to put that in the rearview mirror and get down to getting ready for a new decade of Rays baseball. Stu Sternberg has given us a payroll of $170M for 2030 and after we declined the $27M option for Shane McClanahan, who's coming off Tommy John surgery and doesn't look as good, we're still right at $170M in payroll commitments. So that necessitated a trade:

Taj was going into his final year of arbitration and was projected to make $18M, so given that he's been a 1.5-2 WAR pitcher over the last few years and is coming off a season with a 5.22 ERA it wasn't hard to part with him. And the return is actually pretty good, even if it gives us a surplus. Cody Schrier has a really nice profile:

He's coming off a 286/356/441 season and earned 1.2 WAR in 57 games as he missed about 2 months of the season with injuries (although he's rated "normal" for proneness) and played as a backup. He's also a great clubhouse presence and the players were thrilled to have him on board. He's arbitration-eligible for the first time but is only projected for $1.8M so now we have about $16M of cushion.

Otherwise we lose the following free agents: Vlad Jr., who was outstanding for us and played a big role in getting us to the Series; several bullpen pieces (Reynaldo Lopez, Jack Perkins, Hayden Juenger, Jovani Moran, Matt Canterino); and a couple of minor league vets who were marginal to us despite their big names (Ozzie Albies, Cody Bellinger). So this is how it shakes out position-by-position:

Catcher: Patrick Bailey is the incumbent coming off a disappointing season. This is his final year of team control and I'd like to bring along Zion Rose as his backup or job sharer. This likely means Blake Hunt, who is a fine receiver but can't hit a lick, moves on.

First Base: Bobby Marsh has yet to live up to the half-season he had with us in 2027 (when he was a 6.5-WAR guy for the full year) after coming over from the Dodgers, earning just 1.9 and 1.5 WAR each of the last two years with 29/97 and 23/80 HR/RBI seasons. He does draw walks (about 90/season) and we'll give him one more year.

Second Base: He was only up for the last 2/3 of the season and I haven't analyzed the competition but Ethan Holliday should be a Rookie of the Year candidate after hitting 303/363/423 and playing above-average defense (+4 ZR).

Shortstop: He's a wonderful player when he's in the lineup, but Carson Williams just can't seem to stay healthy, missing 30 games in 2028 and 50 games last year but prorated to a full season he's a consistent 4-WAR guy. We'll hope for better health this season.

Third Base: This is our last dance with Elly De La Cruz, who has to be the front-runner for AL MVP and should haul in $26-27M in his final year of arbitration (if not more).

Infield: We now have two very capable backups in Schrier and Tetsuhisa Hirata, which is important given Williams' injury-proneness although Hirata missed most of 2029 with injuries himself. Luis Almeyda, who was a seldom-used Rule 5 guy before being pressed into action when Williams got hurt and showed some impressive power, will likely get a full year at Durham as a result.

Left: Jackson Chourio did his usual 3-WAR thing although he had a miserable postseason.

Center: Mason Auer is the glue of the team, doing a little bit of everything and stealing tons of bases, and comes off his second straight 3.6-WAR season. He's a little miscast in center after playing Gold Glove D in right, but we'll live with that because of who our RF is.

Right: And that guy is of course Fernando Tatis Jr., who'll challenge Elly for MVP this year and might have been the front-runner if he didn't miss a month after hitting 296/371/600 with 33 HR and 100 RBI in 128 games.

Outfield: Backups include Jeffry Rosa, who has light-tower power and hit 45 HR between Durham and the Rays in 529 AB (including 17 with the big club) and Bayron Lora, who hit 10 HR for us in 143 AB albeit with a .203 average and went to Durham when Vlad came on board. Neither can really play center, and one of them could also get DH at-bats.

DH: With Vlad gone the front-runner for the position is Thomas Saggese, who hit 322/389/542 and 297/345/475 in 250-AB stints with us in 2027 and last year, and seems qualified for the position as well as being a decent IF backup.

Rookies: Aside from Rose, who's slated for a C slot, we have IF Owen Paino coming off a 296/373/496 season with 27 HR and AAA Montgomery, and his teammate Brailer Guerrero, who mashed at 299/372/534 with 35 HR. Paino is rated 50/50 contact/power at the MLB level while Guerrero is 55/55, although they may be Durham-bound with all the players ahead of them.

Rotation: We take some hits here with Taj gone and McClanahan not coming back but we do have a Pepiot/J.Ramirez/Teodo/Lambert likely 4. While none of them are aces, they're all fairly solid and that rotation along with Taj got us to a World Series. The 5th starter could either be failed trade pickup George Kirby or swingman Chang-Hyoek Kim, who surprisingly made the All-Star team last year as a long reliever. We still also have Waylin Santana around, who went from 20-2, 2.36 in 2027 to pitching out of the Durham bullpen, and swingman Santiago Suarez.

Bullpen: As alluded to earlier with the list of pending free agents, this is where the most offseason work is going to have to be done. We do return the backend guys Matthew Peguero and Victor Vodnik, but both of them had their ups and downs last year. Also returning are Juan Nunez, who only pitched in 3 games for us after being claimed from Oakland, and lefties Andrew Nardi and Matt Cronin. But after that it gets a bit dicey - hopefully Fernando Costume has regain his 27-28 form, and the Kim/Kirby 5th-starter loser will become the long man, but we definitely need 2-3 more quality arms. There are no compelling pitchers in the system apparently ready to step in.

So in the end the top-notch offense returns largely intact and the decent but not great rotation is back, but the bullpen is going to need a facelift.

03-30-2024, 05:26 PM	#164
Art Deco Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 7,595	2029-30 Offseason: State of the Team A tough World Series but we'll have to put that in the rearview mirror and get down to getting ready for a new decade of Rays baseball. Stu Sternberg has given us a payroll of $170M for 2030 and after we declined the $27M option for Shane McClanahan, who's coming off Tommy John surgery and doesn't look as good, we're still right at $170M in payroll commitments. So that necessitated a trade: Taj was going into his final year of arbitration and was projected to make $18M, so given that he's been a 1.5-2 WAR pitcher over the last few years and is coming off a season with a 5.22 ERA it wasn't hard to part with him. And the return is actually pretty good, even if it gives us a surplus. Cody Schrier has a really nice profile: He's coming off a 286/356/441 season and earned 1.2 WAR in 57 games as he missed about 2 months of the season with injuries (although he's rated "normal" for proneness) and played as a backup. He's also a great clubhouse presence and the players were thrilled to have him on board. He's arbitration-eligible for the first time but is only projected for $1.8M so now we have about $16M of cushion. Otherwise we lose the following free agents: Vlad Jr., who was outstanding for us and played a big role in getting us to the Series; several bullpen pieces (Reynaldo Lopez, Jack Perkins, Hayden Juenger, Jovani Moran, Matt Canterino); and a couple of minor league vets who were marginal to us despite their big names (Ozzie Albies, Cody Bellinger). So this is how it shakes out position-by-position: Catcher: Patrick Bailey is the incumbent coming off a disappointing season. This is his final year of team control and I'd like to bring along Zion Rose as his backup or job sharer. This likely means Blake Hunt, who is a fine receiver but can't hit a lick, moves on. First Base: Bobby Marsh has yet to live up to the half-season he had with us in 2027 (when he was a 6.5-WAR guy for the full year) after coming over from the Dodgers, earning just 1.9 and 1.5 WAR each of the last two years with 29/97 and 23/80 HR/RBI seasons. He does draw walks (about 90/season) and we'll give him one more year. Second Base: He was only up for the last 2/3 of the season and I haven't analyzed the competition but Ethan Holliday should be a Rookie of the Year candidate after hitting 303/363/423 and playing above-average defense (+4 ZR). Shortstop: He's a wonderful player when he's in the lineup, but Carson Williams just can't seem to stay healthy, missing 30 games in 2028 and 50 games last year but prorated to a full season he's a consistent 4-WAR guy. We'll hope for better health this season. Third Base: This is our last dance with Elly De La Cruz, who has to be the front-runner for AL MVP and should haul in $26-27M in his final year of arbitration (if not more). Infield: We now have two very capable backups in Schrier and Tetsuhisa Hirata, which is important given Williams' injury-proneness although Hirata missed most of 2029 with injuries himself. Luis Almeyda, who was a seldom-used Rule 5 guy before being pressed into action when Williams got hurt and showed some impressive power, will likely get a full year at Durham as a result. Left: Jackson Chourio did his usual 3-WAR thing although he had a miserable postseason. Center: Mason Auer is the glue of the team, doing a little bit of everything and stealing tons of bases, and comes off his second straight 3.6-WAR season. He's a little miscast in center after playing Gold Glove D in right, but we'll live with that because of who our RF is. Right: And that guy is of course Fernando Tatis Jr., who'll challenge Elly for MVP this year and might have been the front-runner if he didn't miss a month after hitting 296/371/600 with 33 HR and 100 RBI in 128 games. Outfield: Backups include Jeffry Rosa, who has light-tower power and hit 45 HR between Durham and the Rays in 529 AB (including 17 with the big club) and Bayron Lora, who hit 10 HR for us in 143 AB albeit with a .203 average and went to Durham when Vlad came on board. Neither can really play center, and one of them could also get DH at-bats. DH: With Vlad gone the front-runner for the position is Thomas Saggese, who hit 322/389/542 and 297/345/475 in 250-AB stints with us in 2027 and last year, and seems qualified for the position as well as being a decent IF backup. Rookies: Aside from Rose, who's slated for a C slot, we have IF Owen Paino coming off a 296/373/496 season with 27 HR and AAA Montgomery, and his teammate Brailer Guerrero, who mashed at 299/372/534 with 35 HR. Paino is rated 50/50 contact/power at the MLB level while Guerrero is 55/55, although they may be Durham-bound with all the players ahead of them. Rotation: We take some hits here with Taj gone and McClanahan not coming back but we do have a Pepiot/J.Ramirez/Teodo/Lambert likely 4. While none of them are aces, they're all fairly solid and that rotation along with Taj got us to a World Series. The 5th starter could either be failed trade pickup George Kirby or swingman Chang-Hyoek Kim, who surprisingly made the All-Star team last year as a long reliever. We still also have Waylin Santana around, who went from 20-2, 2.36 in 2027 to pitching out of the Durham bullpen, and swingman Santiago Suarez. Bullpen: As alluded to earlier with the list of pending free agents, this is where the most offseason work is going to have to be done. We do return the backend guys Matthew Peguero and Victor Vodnik, but both of them had their ups and downs last year. Also returning are Juan Nunez, who only pitched in 3 games for us after being claimed from Oakland, and lefties Andrew Nardi and Matt Cronin. But after that it gets a bit dicey - hopefully Fernando Costume has regain his 27-28 form, and the Kim/Kirby 5th-starter loser will become the long man, but we definitely need 2-3 more quality arms. There are no compelling pitchers in the system apparently ready to step in. So in the end the top-notch offense returns largely intact and the decent but not great rotation is back, but the bullpen is going to need a facelift.