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Old 05-31-2024, 07:53 PM   #14
benp28
All Star Reserve
 
Join Date: Apr 2024
Posts: 875
2027 Player Evaluation

The 2027 season has to be regarded as a success for the Royals. After two years away, playoff baseball returned to Kansas City. Losing out to the Rangers was disappointing but the base has been set to build on in the future.

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The club remains contact-focussed, with Batting Average, OBP, Runs, Hits, and Strikeouts all trending near the top of the AL. The lack of power remains the big gap in the hitting department though, 8th in extra-base hits and 13th in HR. Some more speed might help with the stolen bases and base running performance as well.

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Catchers

Ivan Herrera R Bat | 50 Con | 45 Gap | 45 (+5) Pow | 60 Eye | 65 / 60/ 60(+5) C Def
Jesus Rodriguez R | 55 (+5) | 45 | 40 | 50 | 60 (+5) / 60(+5) / 55(-5)

The 2026 catching corps returned and rewarded Stewart’s faith with solid production and improvement in 2027. Herrera (.231/.326/.349/82 wRC+) was the everyday catcher as the better defender, improving his line considerably from .195/.273.311 in 2026, while Rodriguez (.306/.360/.395/104) offered some ability to get on base and improved from 2026’s .235/.329/.309 line. In a weak catching AL, Herrera finished 5th in Catcher ERA (4.11) and 3rd in Framing Runs (4.7).

Infield

1B José Miranda R | 60 | 45 (-5) | 50 | 45 | 45/55/55/45 Infield Defence
2B Nick Loftin R | 60 | 45 | 40 | 50 | 60 (+5) / 65 (+5) / 55 (+5) / 60 (+5)
3B Maikel Garcia R | 65 | 50 | 35 | 55 (+5) | 65/65/60/65
SS Bobby Witt Jr. R | 60 | 65 (+5) | 55 | 50 | 65 (-5) /70/70/70
DH Robert Perez Jr. R | 45 | 45 (-5) | 65 | 50 | 25 (-5)/30/35/25
INF Kevin Made R | 50 | 60 (-5) | 40 | 50 (+5) | 55/65/70/60
INF Josh Smith L | 55 (+5) | 50 | 45 | 60 (+5) | 55/55/60/55
INF Jose Ramos R | 50 | 60 | 40 | 50 | 55/60/55/55

The infield was very settled throughout the season – with 6 players hitting the 120-game mark.

Miranda (.296/.339/.462/114) made the 1B position his own midway through the season; longer-term more power will be needed from this position, but Miranda is a good placeholder who grades out above average for 1B priorities; run generation through power.

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Loftin (.305/.375/.424/117) earned his second All Star selection and is everything needed at 2B. If he was younger than 29, a long-term extension would be in the offing, but his age does make that a question mark.

Garcia (.256/.320/.354/82) was disappointing and a power hitting upgrade would be welcome here – especially as Garcia’s defence at 3B is not elite with a 60 arm.

Witt Jr. (.302/.359/.522/132) is a stud, 6.1 WAR (7th best Royals season of all time) from only 120 games is the reason the Royals were a playoff team. 2028 is the big salary jump in his contract, though, which is going to hurt as it goes from $19m to $30m.

Perez (.225/.303/.454/99) grades out as league average with wRC+ and OPS both a 99. His route to that grade, though, provides value to the team as he hit the top ten list for a Royals season in HRs (4th – 36) and RBIs (=3rd – 121). He also, however, destroyed the record for strikeouts in a season, his 226 Ks 48 more than Jorge Soler’s 2019 season and the 4th most in MLB history. His 22 HBP total was one short of the all-time Royals record. With some contact growth according to scouts, Perez will retain the DH slot for 2028.

Neither Made (.244/.292/.389/80) or Smith (.213/.329/.341/86) were above average as Infield back-ups. While Smith offers a useful LHB alternative in the infield he has his second year of arbitration, and it may be time to move on from him. Made remains on a minimum contract and, having received only 90 ABs in 2027, will be back on the Royals roster in 2028. Ramos came up to back up while Witt Jr. was injured and is not a long-term roster option.

Outfield

LF Matthew Etzel L | 50 | 60 | 40 | 50 | 65/60/55
LF Jorge Ruiz L | 55 | 50 | 40 | 50 | 65/70/50
LF River Town L | 50 | 50 (+5) | 40 | 55 | 50/55/55
CF Jazz Chisholm Jr. L | 50 | 50 | 55 | 55 (+5) | 65/65/60
RF Steven Kwan L | 65 | 45 | 35 (-5) | 55 | 50/65/50

The outfield is a challenge in a park which almost needs three CF defensively to cover. As a group of centrefielders, the trio of Etzel (.274/.328/.424/100), Kwan (.295/.356/.379/101), and Chisholm Jr. (.290/.349/.503/122) graded out above average with the bat but Kwan’s defence (-7.6 ZR) has fallen off a cliff and there just needs to be more pop from the group. Jorge Ruiz (.267/.348/.333/90) came up in September and offered solid defence (2.7 ZR) and enough bat to ensure he will start on the roster in 2028.

Kwan and Chisholm Jr. are free agents whose time in KC is likely coming to an end. Etzel will start with Ruiz while Town (.284/.369/.368/106) is deserving of another chance although his defensive ratings appear a little on the low side.

It is clear there is room for at least one additional outfielder in 2028.

Secondary Roster

C Rodolfo Duran R | 50 | 55 | 45 | 45 | 30/35/60/25
1B Luke Adams R | 45 | 50 | 55 | 55 | 45/45/55/40
1B DJ Gladney R |40 | 55 | 60 | 45 | 40/45/60/45
LF Tyler Gentry R | 50 | 50 (+5) | 45 (+5) | 55 | 55/50/55

Four hitters on the 40-man failed to make an appearance in 2027 with Gentry the only one with a real shot at retaining their place on the 40-man for 2028. The other three will either be traded or DFA’ed.

Review

CATCHER

Starter: Ivan Herrera ARB
Back up: Jesus Rodriguez

INFIELD

1B José Miranda ARB
2B Nick Loftin ARB
3B Maikel Garcia
SS Bobby Witt Jr.
INF Kevin Made
INF Josh Smith TRADE/FA
INF TBC
DH Robert Perez Jr. ARB

OUTFIELD

LF Steven Kwan NO QO
LF River Town / TBC
CF Jazz Chisholm Jr FA
CF Matthew Etzel
RF Jorge Ruiz
OF TBC

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The pitching was steady but came up short in the playoffs where the lack of starting aces cost the Royals. The difference in performance between the starting rotation (8th) and bullpen (3rd) indicates where the problem lay. The Royals excelled at Ks (1st), had good HR suppression (3rd), and didn’t give up a lot of hits (1st) but gave up a lot of walks (13th) with mediocre defence (7th Eff, 11th ZR).

Starters

POS Name T | STU | MOV | CON | PIT | STM | VELO | P1/P2/P3/P4/P5/P6
SP Mason Barnett R | 50 | 55 | 55 | 4 | 50 (-10) | 93-95 | 60/50/55/55
SP Carlos Hernandez R | 55 (-5) | 50 | 50 | 4 | 50 | 97-99 | 75/60(-5)/65(-5)/60(-5)
SP Freddy Peralta R | 55 | 50 | 50 | 4 | 50 | 94-96 | 65/60/70/65
SP Anthony Veneziano L | 40 (-5) | 50 | 50 | 3 | 55 (+5) | 85-87 (-2) | 40(-5)/60/45(-5)
SP Jesus Luzardo L | 50 | 50 | 50 | 4 | 55 | 95-97 | 60/55/65/55
SP Bailey Ober R | 45 (-5) | 45 | 55 | 4 | 50 (-5) | 92-94 | 55/50(-5)/50(-5)/55

The Bailey Ober (7 GS | 31.1 IP | 7.36 FIP | 14.8 K-BB% | 71 ERA+) experiment lasted until the middle of May when a torn rotator cuff ended his season after a poor first 7 starts. He will not return in 2028. Jesus Luzardo – MiL FA signing in the offseason – replaced Ober and offered replacement level pitching across 25 starts, with a 4.97 FIP and an 82 ERA+. This level of production is readily available and Luzardo will not be resigned.

Barnett (32 | 167.2 | 3.46 | 15 | 137) produced another strong year, with 4.3 WAR and a 1.16 WHIP. Barnett has his first year of arbitration and will return in 2028.

Hernandez (33 | 165.2 | 3.99 | 12.5 | 106) had another steady year with 3.2 WAR. A multi-year contract is not on the table for Hernandez, but he is likely to receive the QO for one final season in KC.

Peralta (33 | 150.1 | 4.87 | 12.4 | 80) was the major disappointment of the season with a FIP almost a full run higher than in 2026 (3.92). On the back of his 3.2 WAR 2026 season that earned him a 3-year contract, the Royals will hope for a bounce back year in 2028.

Veneziano (32 | 161 | 3.61 | 11.4 | 120) was the surprise star of the starting rotation. Having failed to impress in 2026 (93 ERA+), it required a strong spring to earn himself a starting slot but the left hander repaid the faith with a 3.9 WAR season. A loss of velocity impacting his stuff, it may make sense to try to utilise any existing trade value as he enters his arbitration years.

Bullpen

RP* Julian Aguiar R | 45 | 50 | 65 (+5) | 3 | 40 | 91-93 | 45/50/50
RP DJ Herz L | 70 | 55 | 35 | 3 | 45 | 93-95 | 65/60/70
RP John McMillon R | 70 | 55 | 40 | 2 | 35 | 98-100 | 80/80
RP Scott Effross R | 50 | 50 (-5) | 70 (+5) | 3 | 35 | 91-93 | 50/55/55
RP Liu Fuenmayor L | 45 | 55 | 45 | 2 | 30 | 92-94 | 50/50(+5)
RP Ryan Pepiot R | 55 | 50 | 45 | 3 |50 | 94-96 | 60/55/60
RP Ryan Brady R | 40 | 50 | 60 | 4 | 60 | 91-93 | 45/40/40/45
RP Stevie Emanuels R | 65 | 50 | 45 | 3 | 55 | 90-92 | 50/60/60
RP Raimon Gomez R | 75 | 45 | 45 | 3 | 40 | 95-97 | 70/60/75
RP Tony Gonsolin R | 45 | 50 | 55 | 4 | 50 | 94-96 | 50/45/45/45
RP Kevin Kelly R | 45 | 55 | 55 | 3 | 40 | 91-93 | 45/45/45
SP Chase Burns R | 60 | 50 | 40 | 4 | 50 | 97-99 | 75/50/65/65

The bullpen was strong with the two stoppers (Herz & Gomez) exceeded 100 IP with a high K-BB% and positive ERA+.

John McMillon had a league average season over 55 games, giving up a few too many walks (6.1 BB/9) than would be desirable.

Aguiar, Fuenmayor, and Effross were all solidly above league average in terms of ERA+ with double figure K-BB% maintained over 55+ IP.

The final spot in the pen was a rotation with waiver claim Emanuels and MiL stalwart Pepiot pitching the most during the season. Neither overly impressed and it is unlikely either will be offered arbitration, so trade or free agency is their destination.

Post-September roster expansion gave the chance for MiL Free Agent signings Chase Burns and Ryan Brady to come up to the big leagues. Burns will be looking to force his way into the starting rotation in 2028 but will need to improve his walk rate (5.4 in 19 starts in AA/AAA) to stick while it is likely that Brady (with three option years left) will be in the mix for a bullpen place in 2028.

Review

STARTERS

Mason Barnett Arbitration
Carlos Hernandez Qualifying Offer
Freddy Peralta
Anthony Veneziano Arbitration/Trade
Jesus Luzardo Free Agent
Bailey Ober Free Agent

BULLPEN

DJ Herz
Raimon Gomez
John McMillon Arbitration
Julian Aguiar
Liu Fuenmayor
Scott Effross Arbitration
Stevie Emanuels Trade/Free Agent
Ryan Pepiot Trade/Free Agent
Tony Gonsolin Free Agent
Chase Burns
Kevin Kelly Arbitration
Ryan Brady
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