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Old 06-18-2024, 12:48 PM   #36
benp28
All Star Reserve
 
Join Date: Apr 2024
Posts: 875
2030 Major League Roster Player Evaluation

A first AL Championships Series appearance in 15 years with 4 recent draftees all debuting, and impacting, is a real sign of progress for the Royals. Reaching the playoffs in back-to-back years isn’t a common Royals experience while 2031 will provide the chance for three in a row for only the second time in franchise history (1976-1978).

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The improved performance came on the back of an improved batting performance. A batting average that added .022 points and moved from 13th to 2nd in the AL was at the heart of the improvement (148 extra hits) and translated into 96 extra runs (11th to 5th). An improved slugging performance (37 points) led to extra base hits moving from 10th to 4th. Reaching 200 HRs is a satisfying improvement but, at 7th in the AL, indicates a continuing area of weakness along with walks (12th, 486).

The pitching staff produced a similar profile to 2029; with AL-leading bullpen ERA, hits allowed (44 fewer than 2029), opponents average, and strikeouts. The Defensive efficiency was similar remaining second in the league while the ZR doubled to a AL-leading +70.7.

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It was a year of change for the Royals with no fewer than 20 players used in the field (including traded players Schneider, Jenkins-Cowart, Ruiz), and Major League debuts given to four players, three of whom were homegrown drafted players.

Catchers

C JONATHAN GEREW R 55 45 45 50 (+5) 75 70 70 (+5)
C Juan Villarreal S 55 40 40 45 55 55 50

Gerew (104 wRC+) improved his eye and his Catcher arm while earning All Star recognition in his first year as an MLB starter. Leading all Catchers in ZR (3.7), he has established himself as a Top-10 Catcher.

Villareal provided adequate back up with limited trust from the coaching staff as he failed to reach 200 ABs over the season. A -1.6-framing return means he is unlikely to return in 2031, and with plenty of Catching depth the Royals will likely try to sneak him through waivers.

Infield

1B Luke Adams R 45 50 60 55 45 45 60 40
2B Gregory Barrios R 55 45 20 55 65 65 60 65
2B Nick Loftin R 60 45 40 50 55 65 55 60
3B Isaac Paredes R 45 50 65 (+5) 55 60 55 60 50 (+5)
3B JEREMY ROGERSON R 55 55 50 50 55 60 70 60
SS Bobby Witt Jr. R 60 60 50 (-5) 50 65 70 70 70
DH Hunter Owen R 40 50 70 55 30 30 55 30

Luke Adams (107 wRC+) backed up his 2029 season with 33 HRs (27 2029), increasing his slugging percentage by 98 points (.488; 73rd percentile amongst 1B with 200 ABs). Combining his slugging with his defence, the Royals rate Adams as the second-best 1B in baseball (behind Washington’s B.J. Abel).

Gregory Barrios (78 wRC+) started the season at 2B due to Loftin’s (121 wRC+) injury. He provides elite defence (88th percentile), which is perfect for a backup and exceeds Nick Loftin (62nd). However, Loftin’s 90th percentile wRC+ showcases why the Royals rate him so highly and why they extended him during the season for a further three years. Both players will be part of the 2031 Royals although entering arbitration, Barrios will be looking over his shoulder at upcoming prospects.

Isaac Paredes (111 wRC+) struggled early in the season with 0.6 WAR through July. However, he found his swing after the ASB, adding 2.0 WAR thereafter. He will need to be at his best in 2031 to hold off Jeremy Rogerson (227 wRC+) who was promoted in September and looked like he belonged in a very small sample. The Royals ranked Paredes as the 5th best 3B in baseball which bodes well for the 2031 competition.

Bobby Witt Jr. (133 wRC+) was back to his best, and his combination of bat and glove place him as the 4th best SS across the league by the Royals evaluation. He was in the 80th percentile for both ZR and wRC+, while winning the AL batting title and joining the 20/20 club with 23 HR and 25 SB. His 7.6 WAR was the 4th-best Royals season and gives him three of the top four all time Royals seasons and up to 3rd in total WAR for the Royals, one of a host of categories he has the chance to top come the end of his career.

Hunter Owen (117 wRC+) played some 1B during Adams’ injury but predominantly filled the DH role to great effect. He led the league in strikeouts for the second year running, striking out in 44% of his at bats but also hit 8% of his at bats out of the park. His 44 HRs the 3rd most in a Royals season while he also cracked the top ten for single-season RBIs (9th – 117). In a team short of power, Owen is an important cog in the machine.

Outfield

LF WILL GASPARINO R 45 50 60 50 60 50 60
LF Wyatt Langford R 55 70 50 45 60 60 55
CF Enrique Bradfield Jr. L 55 45 30 60 65 70 45
CF Sheng-En Lin L 55 45 (+5) 35 (+5) 50 65 (+5) 60 65
RF JIMMY GOODMAN R 55 50 55 75 60 60 60

After some midseason changes, the outfield was reasonably stable over the back half of the season.

Wyatt Langford (99 wRC+) was in the 100th percentile for LF in ZR and Defensive Efficiency, and while his wRC+ was in the bottom half of the league (49th percentile), he hit for some power (19 HRs) and was 3rd in the tea for RBIs so offers value. Langford is not untouchable but probably won’t be actively traded.

First year Royal Lin (98 wRC+) was a below average everyday centerfielder who offered an extra bullpen arm while providing league average offense. Bradfield Jr. (79 wRC+) offered a very similar profile but without the arm. Neither player provides the level of defence that justify their bat and CF is certainly an area that the Royals would like to improve. Lin would be perfect as a 4th OF with Bradfield Jr. on the block.

Jimmy Goodman (116 wRC+) replaced Jorge Ruiz in the outfield and offered 80th percentile defence with a 116 wRC+. Goodman will be the opening day RF starter all things being equal and is a candidate for a long term contract if both sides can agree a reasonable deal.

Will Gasparino (66 wRC+) struggled in his time in the big leagues and will likely get some time down in AAA to start 2031 as his plus power is an intriguing prospect in a team lacking in raw power.

40 Man Roster

None of Caleb Lomavita, Kiyotake Takenaka, Matthew Etzel or Henry Bolte made an appearance for the Royals in 2030. For Etzel and for Lomavita that likely means a trade or the DFA for list. Bolte has a similar profile to Gasparino so still has a chance to make it while Takenaka has a defensive profile to play second base or even shortstop if needed, although he struggled to make an impact at AAA in 2030.

Offseason / Early 2029 Overview

CATCHER
Starter: Jonathan Gerew
Back up: Juan Villareal DFA

INFIELD
1B Luke Adams
2B Nick Loftin
3B Isaac Paredes
SS Bobby Witt Jr.
INF Gregory Barrios Arbitration
INF Jeremy Rogerson
DH Hunter Owen

OUTFIELD
LF Wyatt Langford
CF Sheng-En Lin 4th Outfielder
RF Jimmy Goodman Long Term Extension
OF Enrique Bradfield Jr. Trade
OF Will Gasparino AAA

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The pitching staff keep producing at a high quality level and even the loss of Chase Burns in July didn’t knock them off their stride. Questions should be asked about the post season performance which indicates the continuing lack of an ace while the use of the bullpen might change after the regular season.

After four years of conservative pitch count management, the challenge for Stewart is to increase the starting rotation workload from 57%, closer to the magical 67% representing 6 innings per start.

Starters

SP Mason Barnett R 50 55 55 55 93-95 60 45 (-5) 55 60
SP Drew Beam R 55 55 55 50 (-5) 93-95 55 70 55 50
SP Chase Burns R 65 55 45 55 97-99 75 55 (-5) 70 75 (+5)
SP Josiah Gray R 50 50 (-5) 50 55 95-97 65 50 60 60
SP Aiden May R 55 50 50 60 95-97 70 (+5) 50 60 65 (+5)
SP CADE TOWNSEND R 60 50 55 55 94-96 60 60 55 70 50

Mason Barnett (117 ERA+) put up another 3 WAR season although his strike out rate was down (8.8 to 8.4 K/9) and his ERA+ was his lowest full season performance since 2025. A Team Option $10m for 2031 seems good value although a new contract after that is less clear.

Drew Beam (126 ERA+) became the top option for the Royals over the season despite a loss of some stamina and a decline in his K/9 rate from 9.4 to 7.7. Entering arbitration, Beam will remain in the top half of the rotation for 2031 and beyond.

Chase Burns (119 ERA+) had a strong first half of the year before suffering a knee injury which ended his season. He will look to return to the line up in 2031 where he and Beam will continue their similar path with the Royals.

Josiah Gray (95 ERA+) stepped up to the starting rotation in 2030 and was adequate in the back half of the rotation. A walk rate over 10% challenged his ability to go deep in games with a low 25% QS rate. He enters his final year of arbitration in 2031 and with an estimated charge of almost $5m is a trade candidate.

Aiden May (91 ERA+) had a tough 2nd season for the Royals, his 9.9% walk rate limited his QS with him only pitching 155 innings. He will need to be let off the lease in 2031 if he retains his place in the rotation.

Cade Townsend replaced Chase Burns in July and produced 2.1 WAR across 13 starts. A K-BB% over 20% is elite and will ensure that Townsend starts in the rotation in 2031.

Bullpen

RP Prelander Berroa R 75 55 40 35 97-99 80 55 80
RP Raimon Gomez R 75 50 (-5) 50 40 95-97 70 60 75
RP David Hagaman R 55 55 (+5) 40 30 94-96 65 60 60
RP DJ Herz L 70 55 40 45 93-95 65 60 70
RP Isaac Morton R 45 55 40 55 93-95 50 60 55
RP Frank Mozzicato L 65 (-5) 50 40 55 91-93 55 (-5) 50 75
RP Wen-Hui Pan R 70 50 45 55 95-97 70 65 75
RP MARCOS PAZ R 55 55 50 60 95-97 65 60 50 65
RP Angel Perdomo L 75 (-5) 50 40 30 94-96 70 65 75
CL Yusuke Matsumura R 65 55 50 20 (-5) 96-98 75 75
CF Sheng-En Lin R 60 (+10) 45 45 (+5) 25 (-5) 96-98 70 (+5) 45 55 (+10) 70 (+10) 45

It is hard to nitpick a bullpen that led the AL in ERA, pitched 43% of the team’s innings and had six pitchers with an ERA below 3.00. However, with three pitchers due arbitration, one entering free agency, and one Team Option decision it is worth focussing on those five and the offseason decision to be made.

Starting in arbitration, which covers stalwarts Raimon Gomez (162 ERA+) and DJ Herz (92 ERA+), and trade acquisition Wen-Hui Pan.

Gomez and DJ Herz were the only (regular as CF Lin gets some leeway) relievers to have a FIP above 4.50. Both pitched over 50 innings and neither provided any WAR benefit to the team. DJ Herz has reached the end of the line with the Royals while Gomez will be on the block after passing through arbitration.

Wen-Hui Pan (108 ERA+) was a workhorse for the Royals, pitching in 83 games, only 1 short of Dan Quisenberry’s 1985 Royals record and the most in MLB since Alex Claudio MIN in 2019. An arbitration cost of under $4m for 9% of the regular season innings seems a reasonable deal so it is likely the Royals will offer an extension to that effect.

The Royals have a decision to make regarding Angel Perdomo (174 ERA+), with a $1.8m Team Option. It comes with a $255k buyout. A 0.99 WHIP across 93.1 Innings is an elite return, demonstrated by his ERA and he will surely be in consideration for Reliever of the Year in the AL. However, a BABIP of .198 against his career average .287 suggests this is an outlier. On top of this is the consecutive years of postseason meltdown. A tough decision but the Royals are unlikely to pick up Perdomo’s option.

Midseason acquisition Prelander Berroa (154 ERA+) is a free agent after pitching 39.2 innings of 3.00 FIP ball. Looking for a 3-year contract at $11m, the Royals would have to get creative and aggressive to retain Berroa’s services. The best case scenario is most likely extending then a trade with the most likely outcome being him leaving in Free Agency.

The rest of the bullpen should return in 2031 with only Mozzicato at risk following his decrease in stuff over the season.

Offseason / Early 2029 Overview

Rotation

SP Mason Barnett
SP Drew Beam Arbitration
SP Chase Burns Arbitration
SP Josiah Gray Trade / Free Agent
SP Aiden May
SP Cade Townsend

Bullpen

MR DJ Herz Trade / Free Agent
MR Raimon Gomez Trade / Arbitration
MR Wen-Hui Pan Arbitration
MR Prelander Berroa Free Agent / Extension/ Trade
MR Angel Perdomo Trade / Free Agent
MR David Hagaman
MR Isaac Morton
MR Frank Mozzicato
MR Yusuke Matsumura
MR Sheng-En Lin
MR MARCOS PAZ Starting Rotation
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