A first World Series appearance since 2015 is a season to celebrate for the Kansas City Royals, even if defeat at the final hurdle stings in the immediate aftermath. Only the second time the Royals have made the playoffs three years in a row, and back-to-back AL Central pennants for the first time since 1984-1985 are all causes for optimism and there is a feeling of positivity amongst Royals fans!
The team’s success was built on a much-improved batting line up to complement a typically strong pitching performance. A Top-5 offence in terms of hits, strikeouts, and batting average is not a new experience in recent times but adding in a Top-6 slugging percentage and extra-base hits made all th difference.
On the pitching side, the bullpen was typically strong (top 3 AL) although the starting rotation faded in the second half of the season (4.49 ERA – 9th). Leading the league in strikeouts is now an annual rite and keeping opponents hits (1st) and average (1st) to a minimum showed the dominance of the performance. The defence stood up too, finishing 2nd in both defensive efficiency and zone rating.
Catchers
The class of 2027 Catching tandem of
Jonathan Gerew and
Dave Holcombe combined to offer strong defence with Gerew offering a league average bat (7th best Catcher with FRM >0). Holcombe struggled with the bat, and will need to show more in 2032.
Infield
Isaac Paredes (128 wRC+) moved to everyday 1B in 2031, despite his lack of height being a risk (definitely an OOTP 1B only). A 2.1 ZR with the 6th best wRC+ amongst first basemen make this a very successful move. His 35 HRs (8th) and 119 RBIs (5th) were both Top Ten Royal seasons. A Free Agent, the 32-year-old is looking for $19m for four years, so will likely be signing a lucrative off season contract elsewhere.
Luke Adams (59 wRC+) was the loser in the infield merry-go-round and he struggled in the 200 PA he made during the season. A tough decision might be needed with him eligible for the second year of arbitration.
Nick Loftin missed virtually the whole season with his knee giving
Gregory Barrios (73 wRC+) the chance at a full season at 2B. He failed to take advantage with a below average bat to go with a pedestrian 1.2 ZR. Entering his second year of arbitration, he is definitely on the block this offseason.
Kiyotake Takenaka (59 wRC+) spent some time in the big leagues before the All-Star Break but didn’t produce enough to retain his place.
Jeremy Rogerson (118 wRC+) made the third base his own in 2031, a 3.5 ZR making him a Top-5 3B across the league.
Bobby Witt Jr. (121 wRC+) was a Top-5 SS but, for the third time in five seasons, missed significant time – this time post-concussion syndrome ruling him out of the final 6 weeks of the regular season and the post-season. His 4.4 WAR was enough to take him to 2nd on the All-Time Royals list, his highest spot in a host of Top-10 categories he now features in for the Royals.
Hunter Owen (116 wRC+) had another 30+ HR season; with 130 in 3½ seasons the Royals are likely to try to accommodate him for the 3032 season despite his lack of defensive flexibility as he approaches the Top 10 all-time list for the Royals.
Tim Storer (111 wRC+) and
Jake Adolphus (135 wRC+) both spent time near the end of the season with Storer doing a great job in what proved to be an audition for the potentially vacant Shortstop position. Adolphus has the defensive skills to make it in the big leagues but doubts remain over his bat with only his gap power seen as average or above by the Royal’ scouting team.
Outfield
Wyatt Langord (82 wRC+) struggled throughout the regular season and would have been traded for the right deal at the trade deadline. However, he came up clutch (154 wRC+) in the postseason securing a second post-season series MVP award. The emergence of young hitting outfielders for the Royals mean he will be back on the block over the offseason ahead of his final year of contract.
Will Gasparino (217 wRC+) and
Matthew Etzel (100 wRC+) both took some At-Bats in LF; with Gasparino the more likely to be seen come opening day in 2032 but Etzel proving his bat can play at the MLB level.
Dominic Fletcher (66 wRC+) was signed as a Minor League Free Agent and was only called up when
Cristhian Vaquero was injured on opening day. However, despite not hitting at all he still managed almost 1 WAR, proving the importance of an elite CF, recording the 5th highest ZR in all of baseball. Looking for 4 years at $4m, the fragile 34-year-old is optimistic at best but the Royals will circle round during the off season.
Billy Mumaugh (137 wRC+) and
Jimmy Goodman (152 wRC+) are the future for the Royals outfield. Both players are signed through the 2040 season and Royals fans are rightly excited for the decade ahead. One left hander and one right hander is a nice complement, and with both showing strong slugging ability (.516 and .530 respectively) the two draftees could provide the power the line up has been missing over the first few years of Stewart’s tenure.
Sheng-En Lin (55 wRC+) struggled massively with the bat and the Royals may prefer to have him as a full time reliever in 2032, taking the field in emergencies or as a defensive corner outfielder.
40 Man Roster
Braylin Tavera (97 ERA+ AAA) was the only 40-man batter not to take an AB in the big leagues in 2031. The Royals front office have lost trust in Tavera after his failed attempts and would love to get something back for a player with a plus eye and some development according to their scouts.
Offseason / Early 2029 Overview
CATCHER
Starter:
Jonathan Gerew
Back up:
Dave Holcombe
INFIELD
1B
Isaac Paredes Free Agent
2B
Gregory Barrios Trade / Free Agent
3B
Jeremy Rogerson
SS
Bobby Witt Jr. Player Opt Out
INF
Luke Adams Trade / Free Agent
INF
Jake Adolphus
INF
Tim Storer
DH
Owen Hunter Arbitration
OUTFIELD
LF
Wyatt Langford On the Block
CF
Dominic Fletcher Free Agent
RF
Jimmy Goodman
CF
Sheng-En Lin
OF
Billy Mumaugh
Starters
Mason Barnett (122 ERA+) had another great season for the Royals, his 4.3 WAR (17th best in 2031) taking him to 6th on the All-Time Royals list while recording another top ten season for Opponents Average (9th - .217), giving him four of the top ten. Extending him was an owner goal but another 6 years at $20 for a 30-year-old is not a risk the Royals are willing to take. They will make a QO and will either welcome one more season or take the draft pick.
Cade Townsend (106 ERA+) was the breakout pitcher for the Royals, adding 4.3 WAR while striking out 227 (4th highest Royals single season) batters at the rate of 11.1 per nine innings (1= Royals all time).
Drew Beam (86 ERA+) regressed in 2031 but still offered over 2 WAR across his 33 starts and adding his name to the Royal Top Ten list for strikeouts/nine (10th – 9.2). Entering his 2nd year of arbitration, the Royals will have a decision to make. Initial thinking is that the Royals will not have both Beam and Barnett pitching for them next year but will probably have one.
Aiden May (95 ERA+) is a perfect fifth starter, or would be if he could offer a few more Quality Starts (.323). 2.2 WAR is in line with his first two years as a Royal and a repeat in 2032 would be ideal, especially if he could get closer to 160 innings than the 152.1 IP in 2031.
Marcos Paz (192 ERA+) as a starter moved to the Starting Rotation at the All Star Break, pitching 12 games with a 1.02 WHIP. A full season repeat in 2032 would be ideal for the Royals.
Bullpen
The Royals bullpen was one or two arms lighter than in previous years.
Wen-Hui Pan (119 ERA+) pitched in 70 games, fewer than 2030 but still 4th all time on the Royals list and offered almost 2 WAR. Entering arbitration, the Royals have a decision to make on a $6m+ expected salary.
The other pitchers due for arbitration are
Raimon Gomez (106 ERA+),
Yusuke Matsumura (185 ERA+) and
Frank Mozzicato (133 ERA+). The Royals may believe they can get similar returns to Gomez at a lower cost, while Mozzicato is a popular figure with a low arbitration figure which would seem to provide value for a left-handed pitcher. Matsumura’s arbitration estimate is $8.5m and it seems unlikely that the Royals can retain that salary and Pan’s.
Josiah Gray (236 ERA+) can back to the Royals in a relief role and did a great job in 14 innings of work.
David Hagaman (320 ERA+) was the pick of the bullpen,
Sheng-En Lin (154 ERA+) proved he can hold his own as a relief arm, while
Isaac Morton (116 ERA+) and
William Schmidt (139 ERA+) benefitted somewhat from the Royals’ defensive excellence as their FIP (4.39 and 4.13) was substantially higher than their ERA.
Colin White (101 ERA+) was league average but as a left hander offers the variance that adds value to a bullpen.
Offseason / Early 2029 Overview
Rotation
SP
Mason Barnett Qualifying Offer
SP
Drew Beam Arbitration / Trade
SP
Cade Townsend
SP
Marcos Paz
SP
Aiden May Arbitration
Bullpen
MR
Wen-Hui Pan Arbitration / Trade
MR
Yusuke Matsumura Arbitration / Trade
MR
Frank Mozzicato Arbitration
MR
Raimon Gomez Free Agent
MR
Josiah Gray Free Agent
MR
David Hagaman
MR
Sheng-En Lin
MR
Isaac Morton
MR
William Schmidt
MR
Colin White