Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelican
This example is totally why I prefer drafting/signing college guys at 20 or 21 to teenagers. I admit I just don't have the patience to wait and see if my 16-year-old stud will survive to MLB in seven years. [I sometimes make exceptions for international players who seem to be advanced as teenagers, and who are unlikely to attend college.] High ceiling; low floor. Some users find the variation intriguing. I find it maddening. To each his own.
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Context can matter. if you have a fairly young, stacked team drafting 18 year olds can be a great timing replacing a currently youngn talent before they get too expensive plus whatever you get in return for the trade. Bank it. I would not rely on the 18yo, obviously, but 4-5 years out is plenty of time to come across plan "B" and plan "C" too.
Depending on TCR setting, HS are probably the primary source of the elite of the elite ratings that can occur. It probably wouldn't be wise only to draft HS players, but mixign in some percentage when you are living fat on the hog (team talent levels) is definitely a good option to invest in.
lol 16year old discoveries or iafa... grain of salt. you keep'em shortlisted until 99% of them fade in the first year of the minors. Most of that is inaccurate scouting, but the potential definitely is a risk with young players much more so than older prospepcts. 10x so for 16 year olds. this is just gravy when it comes to fruitiotn on not something you plan around. Invest in it and when it pays off you get a little bump.
It's also a huge boon to get guys to the ML level contributing at a younger age. If their first FA contract/extension is only into their early 30s that's an incredible value. Almost gauranteed they'll maintain high levels of out put the entire time and still easy to trade after 8-10 years in the leage. Sure you can get a college player there fast too, but not getting them there at 19-20, which will happen if you let it, occasionaly.