First good on you for doing a a detailed analysis. So many times threads are started with "it feels like" and nothing else.
I'm not a trained statistician so can only throw out questions that may, or may not, be something to consider.
My first would be BABIP for these pitchers?
Are K rates higher on the "good days"?
Walk rates lower on "good days"?
Lot's of variables and as you say you are a statistician maybe you have already taken these into account and more?
As for the game deciding player x is going to have a good, regular, or bad day? I don't want to know how the under the hood goings on actually work. I've played under the assumption that players can get hot or cold within a game (which can carry over to players getting the "hot or cold" icon and start a streak), but haven't thought that good/bad/regular was determined under the hood pregame. To me, my assumption seems a better (for lack of better word) way of doing it than pregame. In any case that gets me back to not wanting to know the inner workings of the game.
So I'll throw out my questions and check back in to see where the discussion goes. If it looks like it's getting to under the hood things I don't want to know I'll probably stay away from that point on.
