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I would suggest not listening to the game's recommendations as to when to promote people and make your own decisions based on a combination of ratings and performance. If you have relative ratings turned on, I would suggest adjusting them to show your player's ratings relative to the level you are thinking of promoting them to and see if it looks like they will be successful or not. It's also important to get an accurate reading of a player's statistical success. Too often I see people promote guys because they think he's lighting a league up, but he's had 100 PA and has a BABIP ~.500, which is inflating his overall line. Make sure the success they are having looks real.
It is almost always better to have players continue to succeed at a lower level than to promote them too quickly and have them fail miserably. This is especially true when promoting guys to MLB. You really need to make sure your guys have reached most of their potential before promoting them. I find more players drop potential and/or fail to continue developing if you put them in MLB too soon. They need to be close to a finished product before you bring them up.
Granted, there are exceptions to this, and some players will respond and develop no matter how you manage their promotions. On the flip side, some guys will just never hit their potential no matter how perfectly and carefully you manage them. They will hit a wall at a certain level of development. That's just baseball and the nature of prospects.
Baseball IRL is full of guys who had all the potential and 70/80-grade tools in the world and "only" ended up becoming solid regulars or average players -- some straight-up bust. A toolsy player reaching his 60-70th percentile outcome is a success! The Mike Trouts and Bryce Harpers are the 1% that hit their 99th percentile outcome and fulfill all of their potential. That type of outcome should honestly never be your expectation. Most of your guys are going to come up short of their potential.
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