BNN Report
News from the CBO, Minors, CCBL, and CYL
by Nat Wright-Kawolski
26 September 2313
Sole Survivor Series: #6 Nahant Celtics (68-62) vs #2 Atom Cats (79-51)
Season Series: Atom 2, Nahant 1
May 9-11 @Atom: Atom 9-7, Nah 5-2, Atom 9-8
Analysis
The 2313 season is one that we can say is the unexpected. Looking back at PAM's preseason predictions, the picks were The Slog vs FHE. The Ghouls finished 4th in the NCA and reached the NCACS before succumbing to the representative, Nahant. Also, the Yao Guai were the 3rd seed in the SCA and fell in the Semifinal Round to the SCA representative, Atom. As far as the Celtics and Cats were concerned, PAM had Nahant in as the 5th seed while Atom was predicted to finish 9th in the SCA and miss the playoffs. Yet here we are.
For the Celtics, they have done the impossible: reach the Sole Survivor Series as the 6th seed. They are the first team to do so and help to make this matchup a battle of the lowest combined seeds (8) ever. surpassing the 2311 Sole Survivor Series of 3-seeds Nordhangen Beach and Roxbury. Not counting the 2296 Sole Survivor Series, now renamed the CBO Leagues Title Series (2296 and 2297), this is the Celtics' first trip.
Atom is making its second appearance in the Sole Survivor Series. In 2301, the Cats entered the playoffs as the 3rd seed, finishing three games back of University Point. The Cats went on to beat #2 Diamond City, 3-1, and then edge the Deathclaws, 4-3, before succumbing to Nordhagen Beach, 4-1. This season, the Cats won the Minutemen League for the first time, boosting them to their highest playoff seed in team history.
Looking at a comparison of statistics,Atom has many of the same advantages Fort Hagen had over Vault 81 last season. That series ended in a sweep. The Cats have the statistical edge in every category but running and fielding. The hitting and pitching are superior, and, based on what Atom did versus opposing pitching in ht playoffs thus far, may even be a wider gap on offense than the regular season.
Looking at player vs player at positions, first let's look at those and then show a comparison of the matchups as expected in Game 1.
SP1 - Zack Million (12-5, 3.09) > Doug Creep (21-8, 3.07)
SP2 - Matt Bowman (12-11, 3.96) < Josh Brown (9-9, 3.05)
SP3 - Zane Zorro (8-10, 6.94) < Mesquite Williams (12-12, 4.21)
RP1 - Butterass DeCicco (9-1, 2.15) < Junyard Gourd (14-9, 5.00 as starter)
CL - Ryan Roberson (37 SV, 3.08) > Lacky Luster (26 SV, 1.80)
C - Ayag Mour (.272/7/54) < Nu York (.270/14/49)
1B - Bulleye Shooterson (.323/23/81) > Joe Brocflower (.278/10/41)
2B - Diamond Ball (.301/32/93) > Lee Mayhew (.277/22/65)
3B - Zeke Zoonatik (.266/4/39) < Shane Stabb (.345/17/71)
SS - Roger Coker (.210/3/29) = Patrick Funday-Monday (.345/3.12)
LF - Thrifty Iraheta (.330/7/60) > Gremlin T. Squearfish (.320/14/69)
CF - Grandson Quarles (.294/15/75) > Hickory Dockery (.245/14/52)
RF - Gene Leftswipe (.249/16/54) < Candy Kline (.339/13/53)
Atom's Shane Stabb is the offensive x-factor. At 36, Stabb is the Cats' all-time leader in games played (1538), at-bats (5559), hits (1708), total bases (2639), singles (1148), doubles (367), and RBI (849). This season, though, the seven-time All Star had a career-high 165 hits (led the SCA) and finished tied for 2nd in the SCA in average (.345) behind FHE's Cameron Triggs (.358).
For Nahant, Diamond Ball makes the offense go. The former 1st-overall draft pick in 2301 by the Warwick Mirelurks (now Spectacle Island Reapers), Ball has been a Celtics leader since arriving in Nahant in the 2309 offseason. The 10-time All Star has hit over .300 in every season of his career, starting with his Red Rocket Rookie Award season in 2304. He has also hit at least 30 home runs every season with this season's 32 being his career low. Still, his 378 career home runs ranks him tied for 8th in CBO history.
For the Celtics' pitching, they will need ace Zack Million to win 1 vs 1 matchups. The 2301 2nd-round pick by Finch Farm, Million was traded away to Oberland, where he made his CBO debut in 2306 as a reliever. He was traded back to the Celtics in 2307, where he was the closer but became a full-time starter in 2308. Since then, he has won at least 12 games each season. This season, he led the NCA in HR/9 at 0.4, allowing eight all season.
Atom's pitching is better overall, with Doug Creep (21-8, 3.07) not considered more talented than many other pitchers performing better. Should Creep win Game 1 over Nahant, the Celtics will be in trouble since the rest of the Cats' pitching staff is more talented overall, with Josh Brown and Mesquite Williams outpacing both of Nahant's 2 and 3 starters in talent.
Key Injuries
Nahant
RP Roy Lach (1-1, 8.23)
Atom
RP Lippy Lyonne (2-0, 1 SV, 1.59)
Prediction
Nahant and Atom have both played over their heads all season. For the Celtics, they stepped it up late to outpace Bunker Hill and Nordhagen Beach for the final spot in the playoffs. They then used that struggle to upset three straight teams on their way to the Sole Survivor Series. For Atom, despite winning their league and entering as the #2 seed, we and many others doubted their ability to win in the playoffs. Their victory over #3 FHE was considered an upset, but their 4-1 series win over #1 Vault 81 was an even bigger upset win. Looking at the two teams and analyzing their talent and production, the Cats have the advantages. We will not comment on the x-factor that could tip the scales, but we think Nahant has an even chance of winning. Still, Atom has been really good in the playoffs and we expect that to continue enough to claim a title.
Atom 4, Nahant 2